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Monday, October 31, 2005

good turn bet or take the free card?
i have AsKs at the button. 1 limp to me, i raise, a blind calls, limper calls.

3 players to the flop
6 6s qs

bet, call, i raise. call, call

turn: rag
check, check, i bet. call, call.

river: rag.
check, check, check. i lose to queen little.

on the turn, i guess i was hoping to get q-crap to fold, but i was also opening myself up to a check-raise (which i obviously would've called with the nut flush draw AND two overcards). i suppose Q-x calls here no matter what so maybe i should've taken the free card? i guess i'm getting other AK's to fold (which are unlikely since they both limped) and that's it...

Thursday, October 27, 2005

game 4 notes
-really late start time last nite. what was it, ~8:45pm est? that's simply ridiculous. first pitch should never be later than 8pm est.

-why not go ahead and give jose vizcaino a start at short? it's pretty clear you need offense, and vizcaino can't be any worse at the plate than everett's been.

-brandon backe's curve is nasty as can be. that's the pitch he struck out 5 straight with, and ALL 5 guys went down swinging. he even made konerko look just silly.

-freddy tried to sneak a fastball by lamb in the 2nd and "the thing" just hammered it. his next trip up he got 5 straight offspeed pitches and dribbled one to second. looks like they're going right back to garland's plan on lamb.

-that was a terrible take out slide by ausmus on the hit-and-run double play. definitely a great feed by crede, but iguchi didn't even fall down. the fox guys even complimented ausmus for "touching" iguchi's back foot there. jason lane would've had iguchi on his ass and everett would've been at first.

-doesn't backe remind you of mike hampton at the plate? he certainly doesn't look like your typicaly pitcher at the dish.

-phenomenal play by everett to barehand that slow roller. it was made even tougher by the fact the he picked it up right on the fringe, where the ball tends to take different hop.

-geez, jermaine dye is just having great at bats again. he was 2-0 in two of his four trips in game 4, and the only time in which the stros consistently got ahead of him was game 3 (in 6 ab's tuesday nite dye saw more than 1 ball only once, and predictably had his only so-so game of the series). to continue with what i brought up after game 2, dye saw first pitch strikes in 50% of his plate appearances in the series (and this was brought down significantly by game 3) and had 2-0 or 3 ball counts in 61% of them. wow. from his first ab of the series (homer off clemens) to his last (gw single off lidge on a touch pitch), dye was excellent and very deserving of the mvp. he may also have been the most unexited world series winner ever (he barely whispered "um...world champions..." in the post game pile up), but not every one's a screamer.

-as evident by berkman's 3 walks last nite, everyone in the world knew ensberg was struggling. but instead of taking pitches he just kept trying to swing his way out (never a good idea), and the chisox were making no attempt to hide the fact they were going to feed him a steady diet of breaking balls away. the only inside pitches he saw were mistakes from garcia.

-aaron rowand: hands down, worst baserunner in the series. not only did he hesitate between first and second on that double that was clearly over berkman's head, um, THERE WERE TWO FRIGGIN OUTS. he then followed that up with a two miserable bunt attempts, both on balls well outside the strike zone.

-this is obviously debatable, but i didn't like the ausmus bunt in the 9th. every hitter with bobby "pork rind" jenks is an adventure, and by laying one down you're taking some pressure off him.

-i've been ripping uribe's glovework this series, but those two plays he made in the 9th were like the nba (i.e. faaaantastic). i give two thumbs down to the fans who made no attempt to pull a steve bartman even though they were the HOME TEAM AND LOSING, down to their final 1 out if uribe makes that play. i have no doubt those 5 folks were from southern california.

-the key chicago foursome i mentioned in my preview (aj-rowand-crede-uribe) wound up hitting .277 and slugging .431, and each had 4 or 5 hits in the series (good balance). their houston counterparts (lamb-burke-ausmus-everett) hit only .152 (slugged only .261), and only ausmus had more than 2 hits. i guess you could say they were balanced too, just not in a good way.

-so that does it. world series sweeps in back to back years. the chisox won 11 of 12 games in the playoffs and despite only winning the 4 ws games by a combined 6 runs, were pretty dominant in this series and end a longer run of futility than the red sox did last year. i almost feel bad that they didn't get to win it at home, as the celebrations are always anti-climatic on the road.

-now it's a few months of football and trade rumors before the world cup in march, assuming that still happens. and as usual, the close of the baseball season marks the nearing of snowboard season. so go get your board tuned and waxed.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

game 3 notes (by inning)
1st
-there's only one word to describe oswalt's pitch sequence to podsednik (98 mph on the outer black followed up by 73 mph bender on inner black): unfair.
-man do i hate the decision to have tavares bunt. the guy's actually hitting like a major leaguer for once and you take the bat out of his hands.

2nd
-5th chisox baserunning mistake of the series. an easy one to forgive but still.
-joe crede couldn't look any more comfortable at the plate right now. great at bat.

3rd
-shockingly, uribe is too deep AGAIN on a shitty hitter. you have to get to that ball while it's still on the grass, and you certainly can't backhand it. as a former ss, how does ozzie stand for this?
-tavares has popped up a bunt and k'd. his confidence is gone and he's back to normal crappy wily.
-garland must have lamb figured out, because he threw him 3 straight changeups (not even bothering with a waste pitch) and lamb whiffed at all three.

4th
-aj sure does seem pissed at the fact that he's walked twice, doesn't he?

5th
-"joe crede couldn't look any more comfortable at the plate right now." ditto.
-the wheels fall off, and garner doesn't even have any one warming until the 10th batter of the inning.
-crede gets hit with an 0-2 pitch to load the bases, and carl everett is yapping like it was intentional. seems like a bad idea: (a) um, it was in 0-2 pitch and it loaded the bases, and (b) you have all the momentum. is riling up the stros really a good idea?

7th
-the guy from journey looks like pee wee herman.
-i can't believe oswalt is going to start this inning.
-i question the use of bagwell here. if you send a lefty up, you either have a lefty-righty matchup or you force ozzie to bring in a lefty. with the pitcher's spot coming up, this would mean cotts would only be used for 2 outs.
-starting with the 3-1 pitch to bagwell, garland throws six straight 79 mph changes (2 to bags, 4 in a row to biggio), then gasses biggio with a 94 heater on the outside corner. wow. i give all the credit in the world to garland for holding the stros to 4 and keeping his team in the game.

8th
-i was shocked ozzie went with hermanson in that spot (especially since jenks overpowered lane last game), but dustin did a great job. the pitch that lane doubled was fine (tip the cap to the hitter), and he worked ausmus for the 3rd out.

9th
-no brad lidge? what are you saving him for? oh, then you bring him in mid-inning, wasting a reliever. awesome.
-everett makes a simply phenomenal play on dye's grounder and makes it look easy. somewhere in chicago's dugout, uribe should be taking notes.
-that was burke's second 4-pitch walk in the 9th inning in 2 games.
-what in tavares' game thus far makes garner think a squeeze shouldn't be used here? the best possible outcome of this at bat was a weak grounder, which has less of a chance to score the run than a bunt.

10th
-2 runners for houston, 0 runs.

11th
-say what you will about konerko's slam the other night, but chad qualls is filthy.
-2 more runners for houston, no more runs.

12th
-6 up, 6 down. fox has resorted to showing the weirdest assortment of fans they could find. and why are they fixated on that lady on the cell phone? that's the third time they showed her.

13th
-houston gets the leadoff runner on again. predictable results.

14th
-estacio was lucky to get out of that inning without giving up 5 runs. walking uribe to load the bases and then john flaherty (i mean widger) to force in a run is downright gross. in estacio's defense, the pitch blum hit out was not much of a mistake, but bad things are going to happen when you're pitching to syndrome (seriously, did you see blum without his hat on?)
-uribe (too deep yet again) stays back on ausmus' three hopper, fielding it on the outfield fringe. by not charging he forces himself to field an in-between hop. this guy is driving me insane.

game over
-houston has only themselves to blame. they were shut out for 9 innings (getting 1 hit in that span, lane's double in the 8th) and didn't take advantage of all the free passes given to them by chisox relievers. that disappointment may be too much to overcome in game 4, not to mention chicago is 10-1 in the postseason. regardless, i'm going with/hoping for the stros in game four tonite, 6-4.

and so it begins
people in florida are already complaining about the lack of post-wilma aid. like this piece detailed last week, bush has set a simply terrifying precedent with his aid guarantees to katrina victims. i'm not saying katrina wasn't handled poorly, but just giving people lots of money isn't going to change that (although clearly bush is hoping it will make them overlook his awful-ness). if a child scrapes his knee and you give him a lollipop, it won't be long before the kid with the paper cut wants one too.

i don't remember hearing these complaints after tampa was hit with 3 hurricanes last year. but in the forefront of america's mind are those NO locals complaining about the lack of aid. and now the ball is rolling. these people are blaming the government for their own lack of preparation (please don't compare wilma to katrina), and the media is just perpetuating it, making it seem okay. i just can't stand the quote: "what, this is all we get?" holy shit man. you can't be serious. do us all a favor and move someplace where the government is responsible for wiping your ass. i'd look for a nice two-bed somewhere in eastern europe.

okay people. it's very simple. somehow you missed the 2 ginormous hurricanes that hit in the last 2 months or else learned nothing from them. every single fucking time a hurricane may come anywhere near your town, go buy lots of gallons of water and canned food. if the stores are out then you waited too long. but hey you can always fill up all empty containers you have with tap water before the electricity/water goes out. and remember you will not die without ice. i promise. then get in your car and drive away. if you choose to stay and ride it out, don't complain when you don't like the results.

if you live in florida, a hurricane is going to hit you on average once a year. how can you possibly not know what to do or act surprised by what hurricanes do?

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

JJ in late position
if you have pocket jacks in late position and there are 5 limpers in front of you, do you like a call or a raise? i've read cases for both, but i tend to just limp if there are more than 4 callers in front. thoughts?

Monday, October 24, 2005

world series notes
-last nite's was just a phenomenal world series game. i really hope houston takes at least 2 in houston so that we can see a full 7 game series.

-for a "fundamental" team, the chisox are making way too many mistakes on the basepaths. i've counted 4 in 2 games thus far: dye breaking too early on a steal, rowand turning a run scoring double into a station-to-station single, iguchi getting picked off, uribe getting trapped off second on a ground ball to pettitte. chad qualls completely botched the rundown with dye in game 1, not forcing dye to commit before throwing to biggio.

-it amazes me how many broken bats/jam shots mark buehrle gets without breaking 90.

-wily tavares and scott podsednik sure have been eating their wheaties. podsednik has a 2 extra base hits (a triple and a homer) already in the series after having exactly 1 triple and zero homers in the regular season. in fact, he didn't gain his second extra base hit of the regular season until chicago's 27th game (may 4th). tavares gained only 20 extra base hits in over 600 plate appearances in 2005, yet has 3 in the last 2 days. he needed until houston's 39th game (may 18th) to collect his 3rd extra base hit of the regular season.

-speaking of tavares, uribe was waaaay too deep on that infield hit last nite. i mentioned last week that uribe plays the deepest short of anyone i have seen of late, but he really needs to adjust to the hitter.

-note to fox: please eliminate the fox tracker AND the mid inning interviews with jim hickey.

-joe crede has been averaging a web gem like every other inning. his play at the hot corner has been a huge factor in these 2 wins. i think he's taken away 3-4 doubles already.

-note to houston pitchers: stop falling behind jermaine dye! with konerko on deck, i would think you'd go right after dye. but i could swear he's ahead in the count nearly every time up. after checking the numbers, he has seen a first pitch strike in only 3 of his 8 trips up thus far (38%), and had three ball counts in 7 (88%)! in just one of those seven did he battle back from being behind in the count, and has had 3-1 counts in half of his times to bat. this needs to be remedied. stat.

-i know jeff bagwell is only 1-6 thus far (although he's reached base 3 of 8 trips), but he could easily have three or four hits. bags has a couple of very sharply hit outs, and his ab's against jenks (in the 96-100 range) have been fantastic. especially given the fact that he has not been seeing live pitching for very long.

-speaking of great at bats, i've been in awe of konerko of late. he is just doing a fantastic job with pitches on the outer half, and (obviously) not having a problem when they come in on him either. the pitch he hit the grand slam on was not that bad of a pitch either (down and in, but not in enough). he's the 2005 version of carlos beltran, as his free agency stock is rising on a daily basis. unlike beltran though, i don't see him having a bad year following this postseason dominance.

-phil garner runs for lance berkman in the 8th on saturday, losing his only great hitter if he gets up again in the 9th or extras, but not jeff bagwell in the 9th on sunday. i still don't understand the use of his bench.

-mike lamb and morgan ensberg - atrocious ab's with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs on saturday. lamb swung through a very hittable fastball (92 mph on the inner half) to whiff, and ensberg was chasing high fastballs to strike out. that's not how championships are won.

-update on the bottom of the order foursomes i mentioned as the key to the series: chicago's is 10-29 (.345) with 5 extra base hits, while houston's is 4-22 (.182) with just 2 extra base hits.

-houston takes game three behind a pissed off roy oswalt, 6-2.

Friday, October 21, 2005

quick ws preview
okay, so both teams have dominant starting rotations but even with backe i have to give a slight edge to houston. their guys have pitched in a lot more big games than the chisox counterparts. besides the obvious of never throwing in the postseason until this year, in going 7-1 thus far the chicago staff has yet to deal with a back against the wall scenario. i also give the edge to houston's bullpen. i like bobby jenks but he's no brad lidge (and he also could've put on 17 pounds with those 6 off days). maybe one starter on each team will have a terrible outing, but i think the games will more or less be of the 4-3 nature.

now to the offense: the tops of each order have 1 superstar (berkman and konerko), and you could argue houston's top 5 is scarier than chicago's. i see them as pretty compatable, though, leading to Ethan's Key to the Series: the 6-8 hitters (6-9 in games 1, 2, 6, 7). i really think this will boil down to the production of lamb/burke/everett/ausmus and aj/rowand/crede/uribe. the (maybe unsung) hero(es) of the series will be hitting the bottom of the order.

each group has 1 lefty and 3 righties among. and they're each facing 3 righties and 1 lefty on the hill. there goes my shot to give an edge on matchups.

i don't think either foursome is heads and shoulders above the other, but i see chicago's being a cut above. neither group gets on base too well, but the chisox group's power potential is simply higher. i think this gives the edge in the world series to chicago, though i'll be rooting for houston and for bags to get some ab's. if he can actually dh in all the chi-town games, i think the edge may swing in houston's favor (partially for his hitting ability, partially for the boost it will give to the houston players).

either way, i think this series will be dyn-o-mite and i'm certainly going to enjoy soaking up the last 4-7 baseball games of the year.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

questionable play
so i had this poker hand last nite:

i was in the small blind with A7s and there were 5 players in after the BB checked.

flop:
A 8 7 rainbow.

it was caller central at this table, so i bet out hoping to enlarge the pot and planning to checkraise the turn. but of the other four players, only 1 stayed. i checked the turn (another 7), but it checked through. then i (obviously) had to bet out the river (low garbage) and got called. so i had a monster, and won a small pot.

my question is should i have checked/called the flop? the reason i raised the flop was because (a) sometimes it was checking through, but (b) a bet from first position wasn't typically scaring anyone and people were almost always sticking around at least until the turn (sometimes even with 2 bets in front of them).

game 6 and general nlcs notes
i didn't watch last nite's game very closely (was playing poker at sandia with game on big screen), but here's what i noticed:
-jason lane sure does have some power, but his swing is about as smooth as bottom shelf tequila. it just looks very effort-full.

-how does roy oswalt throw 118 pitches in 7 innings allowing only 6 baserunners (3 hits, 1 bb, 2 hbp's)? at 4.4 pitches a batter, you'd expect more than 6 k's. this is not to take away from his performance at all - this guy is a total bulldog and obviously deserved the mvp. he was still throwing in the mid-to-high 90's in the later innings and was freezing a lot of cardinals with fastballs (especially hard to do to eckstein, but he did that).

-remember 2-3 years ago when oswalt and miller were both on the verge of becoming completely dominant? the stros just didn't have the back end of the rotation. then they get clemens and pettitte - can you imagine that staff if miller hadn't broken down?

-strike out looking - a sad way for larry walker to end his career. let the HOF discussion begin.

-last nite's win was very anti-climatic, which is probably just the way houston wanted it. the wind was out of the st. louis faithful's sails by the 3rd inning.

-this was billed as a pitching heavy series, and the rotations didn't disappoint. the cards put up a 2.94 era, 1.35 whip, and 5.71 k/9 for the series, while the stros posted a 2.72, 1.04, 7.13. both squads put up numbers better but not dissimilar to that of their regular season totals.

-i didn't think it was fair for the announcers to pick on david eckstein for failing to lead the cards into the series. this is not the guy who they were hanging on for massive production, and besides he still reached base at a .346 clip for the series (kudos to his leadoff counterpart biggio, who put up a .385 OBP in the 6 game set). with the exception of yadier molina, the entire st. louis lineup underperformed horrifically. how can you point at eckstein when your 4-5 hitters were simply disgusting? given how bad walker and sanders were (.502 and .544 OPS respectively and a combined 2 extra-base hits), it's especially surprising that pujols only drew 1 walk in 6 games, a .17 ratio drastically under his .6 rate in the regular season. it seems houston didn't have to pitch to him, but maybe albert realized he couldn't be so patient since his "protection" was about a strong as a single ply tissue. and while jim edmonds had a high OBP he only had one extra basehit in the series.

-on the other hand, no one in the houston lineup greatly exceeded expectations (ensberg was awful himself), but instead they were getting hits 1 through 8 (except 4). there were 5 regulars who hit over .300 in the series, including adam everett AND brad ausmus but not lance berkman. the rbi totals also show a great balance, with no player driving in more than 3 runs, but 7 players driving in at least 2.

-am i the only one who thinks bagwell just looks depressed? i can certainly empathize with his frustration, and he probably doesn't really feel like he deserves to be there. i hope he gets to dh in the series (though judging on how he was utilized in the nlds and nlcs this seems unlikely) and comes through with some hits.

-basically i just want to see a competitive WS, hopefully 7 games. i'll be pulling for houston. i wonder how many people out of chicago will be rooting against the team that started the year 15-30.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

game 5 nlcs notes
-i really don't like edmonds squaring to bunt with eckstein on base with none out in the third inning. i don't know if this was from larussa or on his own, but the point of hitting edmonds second is not to move runners along. it's early in the game, and you're potentially taking yourself out of a big inning with your 3 best hitters up.

-i'm usually all over hitters for not getting the run in from third with less than two outs, but pettitte was simply superb against pujols and sanders in the 3rd. andy knew albert would take the first pitch no matter what after swinging at the first offering in his first ab, and that allowed him to get ahead. the slider to pujols was unhittable, as was the fastball on the outside black to sanders.

-both starters were top notch, and the pitch that berkman hit out was hardly a mistake. but each did hit a guy with two strikes. that drives everyone insane.

-when eckstein fouled that ball of his shin i had visions of the jermaine dye playoff incident in 2002 (2003?).

-the cards ran themselves out of innings twice with a 2-1 lead (grudz thrown out stretching a single, eckstein's 2nd sb attempt). you could argue that sending grudz was ok with the bottom of the order coming up, but they went to the well one too many times trying to run on pettitte. the first two times they went first move after andy had thrown over twice, so the scouting report must've said he would go home after two straight pickoff attempts. did they not expect him to make the adjustment the third time? plus eck on first with none out and edmonds, pujols, and sanders coming up is fine (same logic as not bunting edmonds in third).

-it would be easy to knock luna for costing runs in the 7th with that error at third. but the guy rarely plays the hot corner AND had saved at least 1 run in the first robbing lamb of a single. that play was unbelievable, off the wrong foot from foul territory. after the inning when they showed him smiling in the dugout nina turned to me and said "maybe if he keeps up the good work he can afford some new teeth". she also asked why mike lamb was so slow. two good observations.

-i don't think the fact that he's slumping is the reason larry walker is getting gassed by 92 mph fastballs. he's just at a similar place in his career as piazza (bat speed is gone). he can still get you a walk, run the bases wisely (as evident sunday) and play solid d. i've always been a fan of his, but it's probably time to hang em up. with all the emphasis by fox on how he sucks against lefties, i was surprised la russa didn't start taguchi in the 2 hole and bat edmonds 5th. but i checked this morning, and even with his .214 avg vs. southpaws in 2005, walker still out OBP'd and SLG'd taguchi against them.

-after his first at bat (pop up to short), pujols switched bats (from his typical ash colored one to that two-tone sam bat). he used that one for ab's 2 and 3 against pettite (including when he knocked ensberg over with that 3-0 swing), and i was guessing he went with a heavier one since pettitte isn't much of a hard thrower. but he switched back to the original against qualls, resulting in a squibber, and then back to the two tone one against lidge. this makes me think he was switching to a lighter bat for his last two ab's vs. pettitte and for his ab vs lidge - a testament to how much pettitte's ball must've been boring in on his hands.

-lidge really can't lose edmonds there in the 9th. he's a great hitter, but no albert. i thought the pitch to eckstein was nasty and just one on which lidge tips his cap to the batter. you could argue that he should've climbed the ladder on the little guy, but i'm fine with it. but once you have two runners on, pujols up and sanders on deck don't you just pitch around pujols? after that first slider, even the announcers were saying "well here comes a steady diet of sliders". if even those guys know whats coming, don't you think the best hitter in baseball does? my thought process was (a) walk him, please walk him (don't you think he was just a little pissed about being 0-4 with no rib's?) but if you don't then (b) go with the fastball. get beat with 98 mph if you have to, which he might crush but might foul back too. he is not missing a hung slider. don't get too cute. geez, don't get too cute. next thing you know pettitte is mouthing "oh. my. gosh." in the dugout. oh yeah, and sanders was easily worked.

general nlcs notes
-i used to like it, but now i'm tired of the "there's only 23 figurines left hank!" pizza commercial. i also don't like, "chevy and baseball. they just go together." um...how do they go together again?

-i'm not sold on jason lane being an every day major league outfielder, but this guy has made some great hard slides in this series. first, he took out nunez at third (forcing third string luna to start), then came in hard to molina last nite, and also knocked grudz on his ass on a force play. there's no doubt the cards infielders have this in mind when he reaches base.

-this applies to the al as well, but what is with fans booing the first time a pick off move is made. i don't know how this became common practice (third or fourth attempt, fine), but it's dumb.

-who looks/moves more like ahren: chad qualls or lance berkman?

-way to many guys in that astros lineup are getting the "bzzzzz" noise during there ab introduction. the original killer bees were biggio, derek bell (seems like ages ago), and bagwell. and i'm fine with berkman taking bell's place in the trio. but chris burke? he's not even a full time starter! and brad ausmus? seriously. stop it.

-yadier molina has really impressed me, both at the plate and in the field. i love how he picks great spots to throw behind runners at first (he clearly had burke the other day). when this guy's hitting .270 with 13-15 homers a year for the next 10 seasons something tells me the cards won't be lamenting the loss of mike matheny.

Monday, October 17, 2005

game 5 alcs notes
-when you're facing elimination, it's not a good sign when the manager of your team has to "do anything he can" to get juan rivera in the lineup.

-konerko was putting great swings on low and away fastballs last nite. that guy's just a professional hitter.

-did anyone else notice the brown spot on k-rod's hat last nite, the one he touched before every pitch? was it tar/resin? or was it just dirt getting wiped off his finger due to the rain/wet hat? the reason i'm suspicious is that he touched that same exact spot before every single pitch.

-the sports guy was complaining that fox added pinella to the box, but i couldn't disagree more. with pinella there, mccarver's retardedness was minimized (and often immediately contradicted). and i love how lou points out things like everett's stance change with two strikes. i for one don't know why everett doesn't keep that approach on every swing. he just looks too damn close to the plate with one and two strikes. i'd also like to know what jurassic carl and fatty molina were jawing about in the 3rd.

-tough official scoring last nite. an error was charged on both the escobar play AND the iguchi steal (on which the throw was into the runner yet kennedy was given an e). on the escobar play, that ball was ripped off his ass and was simply not an easy play. had he not went for the tag, he would've been making a short, soft toss throwing across his body (way harder than when the fielder can just fire it) with a wet ball AND avoiding the runner with the throw (though i suppose joe west would've called interference on aj). also, aj turned the wrong way after touching first and erstad could've tagged him out immediately.

-i'm not sure that i like the automatic "take a strike when you're down in the 9th" rule. contreras, knowing that was the case with scioscia's old school/traditional approach, was just tossing mediocre fastballs right down the middle, and then going to work ahead in the count. i know the hitters up for the angels were not at all great (erstad, molina, kotchman), but still. they're major league hitters and should be able to treat the first pitch like a 2-0 count. instead, they were all down 0-1 and facing a steady diet of "senor tumbelina". i think this especially hurt erstad, who seems like an automatic out when he's behind in the count but at least serviceable in hitters counts. i feel like at that level you should be able to trust your hitters to treat the first pitch like a 2-0 or 3-1 count.

-in general i love the angels bullpen management. but two things i questioned last nite: (1) not leaving in shields to face one batter in the 7th (crede), and then bringing in escobar. i can't find crede's numbers vs. escobar anywhere so maybe this was played right. and (2) not getting donnelly warm sooner when k-rod was clearly losing it. he didn't look sharp in the 8th and after the first walk in the 9th donnelly should've been up. i'm not saying you definitely bring him in, but he needs to be ready (after that second walk, brining him in was certainly a possibility i think).

general alcs notes
-it's an obvious statement to say that since each team has one dominating hitter (konerko vs. vlad), whoever's slugger produced would win the series. and while that was the case, don't underestimate the value of podsednik vs. figgins. in the alcs, figgins' bb:ab ratio was 1:17 while in the regular season it was ~1:10. podsednik, on the other hand, was 1:11 during the regular season but an astounding ~1:3 in the alcs. his 5th inning walk last night was a phenomenal at bat.

-iguchi just looked awful at the plate in this series. he's taking weak swings at bad pitches way too often for this time of year.

-how is joe crede not the series mvp? he had two game winning hits AND a game tying homerun. his ab vs k-rod last night was simply excellent. great composure after taking a terrible swing at a 58 foot deuce (i think all of chicago was expecting a punchout after that). and don't forget the roughly 4 web gems he made in 5 games. konerko certainly had a lot of big hits (and 7 rbi's), but i think he got the nod because he's their best offensive player.

-juan uribe may play the deepest short of any mlb ss. he fields three hoppers at the outfield fringe.

-i'm interested to see if/why vlad gets a free pass for his absolutely horrid postseason. he's the only excellent hitter in their lineup (garrett had a down year), and he drove in 1 run in 10 games. more than that, even though he has a cannon, he was getting run on consistently since his throws are all over the place. also, while arod didn't swing well he still took a lot of walks (OBP of .435 in alds). vlad walked twice in 10 postseason games, and in the alcs went 1 for 20 with zero walks or extrabase hits (that's an OPS of .100!!!!).

-chicago's staff should be named the 4 horses. 4 straight complete games, all in the 115 pitch range (and each guy's thrown well over 200 innings in 2005 thus far) is downright astounding. and yet while the pen will be very rested, you have to wonder whether or not they will be sharp in the series. throwing on the side is fine, but it will have been almost two weeks since any of the chisox relievers saw real action.

Friday, October 14, 2005

black zeppelin
i just got back from a 1.5 hour lunch, my boss is out of town for the next 4 weeks, it's friday, nina and i are headed to the casino in just a few hours, phil garner took my advice and started chris burke last nite, i found this fantastic black crowes with jimmy page album on iDIGIT (search black crowes, then pick live at the greek - i seemingly can't post it directly). things are friggin dandy.

so what better time to make my football picks for the weekend (especially since my record thus far is a super 30-44!):

falcons -4.5 over saints
browns +5.5 over ravens
vikes +3.5 over bears
bucs -4.5 over fish
panthers +1.5(???) over lions
steelers-jags -- can't make this pick until saturday nite thanks to big ben's knee
bengals -3.5 over titans
boys -3.5 over giants (man do i hate the giants)
chefs -5.5 over skins
pats +3.5 over broncs
jets +3.5 over bills
bolts -2.5 over raiders
seahawks -9.5 over texans
rams +13.5 over colts (indy's d has to give up over 14 points sometime, right?)

is this the week i finally win more than 50% of the games?

Thursday, October 13, 2005

multi-media day
4 books i plan on reading ASAP:
kevin king's all the stars came out that nite. about a fictional game between the mlb stars of the 1930's and the best of the negro leagues.

rodney rothman's early bird. rothman was a writer for letterman, and this is non-fiction about roth moving into a retirement community. at the age of 28.

slansky and miller's small stakes hold em. apparently it's a crime i haven't read this yet.

chris elliott's the shroud of the thwacker. yes, that chris elliott. what can i say, i'm a big fan of get a life. anyway, this is a spoof of an 1800's thriller. it's safe to say i'll know in the first 20 pages if i need to continue, so maybe i should go to barnes and nobles and do just that.

two movies i want to see (anybody seen either of these yet?):
capote, even though i don't know shit about the guy (phillip seymour hoffman makes it a must see).

thumbsucker. because i too just recently broke the habit.

nl playoff notes
let me start by saying it sort of sucks that the games were on simultaneously. my dad couldn't even watch this one since he doesn't get fx. i know it's good for the local markets, but it's not cool for everyone else. having to switch back and forth if you have both channels forces you to miss some of each game. also, maybe i missed it, but on the fox telecast all i was seeing was which channel the other game was on with direct tv (no mention that it was on fx).

you can't argue with the angels cutting eckstein loose last winter (paying cabrera all that money is another matter entirely), but you have to love that he outplayed both cabrera AND renteria this year. i just get such a kick out this guy. i read something a while back that said he still goes to the library to use the internet (and here's a little interview from si). oh yeah and he's hitting over .400 in the postseason and needs to get on his tippy toes to hit chest high fastballs.

as i mentioned a while back, mike lamb is a key hitter for the stros. and he is really having some quality ab's. what i don't understand is, as a former third baseman, why he is replaced for defensive reasons late in games.

what an improvement to st. louis's lineup it is to get reggie sanders back in time for the playoffs. i tip my cap to sanders, who must've really worked hard to close the biggest hole in his swing: the chest high fastball. a few years ago this guy was like soriano in the playoffs - an easy out when pitched the right way. but it doesn't look like you can consistently get him out like that anymore.

that was just a terrible swing by adam everett to drive in a run, but the play by nunez is getting overlooked. that play is so easy to muff and he just took his time and made it look easy. nunez is a decent little hitter too, and mark grudzelanek could be looking for a job in 06.

there were some questionable approaches by good hitters last night. for example, i don't agree with giving larry walker a green light 3-0 anymore (all he did with it was hit a hard grounder foul), and there's no way he should've been swinging at that 3-1 pitch (low and away and predictably he just rolled over it). albert friggin pujols is on deck and a guy hitting under .100 in the playoffs is hacking there? also, i don't like ensberg swinging at the first pitch after 2 quick outs in the top of the 8th.

given the incredibly small strike zones that have been evident of late, i was surpised to see jason lane punched out on that pitch in the 9th. in fact, the zone really opened up in that inning, at the absolute worst time for it to change.

that homer by chris burke was a mammoth shot. at first i thought it hit the foul ball, but the replay showed it ricochet off the top deck. wow. hey can we maybe stick him out in right for the struggling lane?

phil garner is continuing to mismanage his bench. it paid off with ausmus' heroic but highly, highly, highly unlikely 9th inning homer against the braves AND pinch running for berkman in that same game but i guess he dropped his rabbit's foot in the urinal. last nite with the game on the line, he opted to let everett AND ausmus hit for themselves, and then used jose vizcaino to hit for the pitcher. i'm glad to see jeff bagwell was being kept for extra innings.

al playoff notes
i simply love sweet lou in the booth. this is what a color man should be like. for example, he said that when the angels botch a sac bunt attempt, they typically scrap it and go to a hit and run. now that's shit i like to know! i think fox is getting the message that viewers hate timmy boy.

great take-out slide by erstad on uribe. without clipping his foot, uribe gets more on that throw and doubles up jose molina (the worst non-nl team postseason dh of all time?). everyone around these parts has the same opinion on erstad as a hitter, and i continue to find this guy confounding. if you watched a few of his better ab's, you'd think he was actually the guy who hit ~.350 not all that long ago. but then he'll show up at the plate the next time and look like john flaherty (by the way, does flaherty hold the record for largest % of ab's that end up with a pop up to the catcher in foul territory? it's uncanny how often he does that. here's to hoping the yanks scrap him).

scott podsednik hit ZERO homeruns in nearly 600 plate appearances during the regular season. he has 1 in 20 tries in the postseason. but i still think he swings and misses too much for a speedy guy with no pop.

one thing about the 9th inning call (discussed over on ace's site) that isn't being mentioned - escobar had joe fucking crede 0-2 and hung a splitter. it's not like the angels shouldn't haven't gotten out of that "jam".

despite the halos pen taking the loss, i still think the angels relievers vs. the chisox hitters is a terrible matchup for chicago and will be their undoing. they have only 1 hitter (konerko) in their lineup with any sort of plate discipline (taguchi could arguably make 2). it's rare nowadays to have such an astounding number of hackers in your lineup (everett, rowand, uribe, crede, aj, dye).

buehrle's beard is horrendous. but i guess it's cancelled out by the jackets the angels coaches were wearing. i mean, pale yellow leather sleeves? are you serious? they look like varsity letter jackets from the 80's.

great interview with that 95 year old white sox diehard. i loved when he tossed out the name tris speaker.

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

dude, you just shot yourself in the jugular
i'm obviously not pleased. here's why:
what is with the yanks going away from what worked all year? you win 58.6% of your regular season games and you're in a series where you need to win 60%. seems to me like the original plan was fine. but torre got caught up in the "postseason requires small ball" myth. sending cano (i don't care - straight steal or hit/run) with NOBODY out and the rookie throwing pitches all over was an atrocious decision. took a potentially huge inning away.

aside from jeter's GWRBI on the slow roller in game 4, every break in this series went to the halos. last night, this was especially apparent. moose made exactly 1 bad pitch in his entire appearance (no, not the pitch to anderson but the one to kennedy), but bloop after bloop kept coming. the ball kennedy hit was catchable by BOTH bubba and the sheff. the arod play on juan rivera (called safe but did no damage). giambi missing a homer by a foot. and obviously, the DISGUSTING interference call on cano, who was running ON THE FRIGGIN LINE. oh yeah, and THE BALL DIDN'T EVEN HIT HIM. that play was completely erstad's fault, who was set up on top of the bag, completely in the baseline. i think the umpire was of the mindset of "a call is better than a non-call," it being the postseason and all. there's no guarantee bernie would've done anything, but that's one of the worst calls i've ever seen. it's only ever made if the runner is clearly on the grass/out of the box. i have to move on before i smash something.

this is not to say the yanks played great and got totally screwed. there was the terrible decision by giambi to throw home on erstad's dribbler. take the out, avoid the big inning. plus, he has a worse arm than bagwell currently does. and you can't expect to win a series when you score, 4, 2, 7, 3, and 3 runs. with runners on last nite, the yanks were atrocious. 1st and 2nd nobody out - you just can't come up empty.

there were a few positives last nite though. jeter put together 5 excellent ab's, and bubba crosby had a nice game at the plate (great bunt). nobody has more fun than derek though - he's going 1st to 3rd on vlad, blowing a bubble along the way. they kept vlad completely in check, and kept figgins off the bases too. like i said yesterday, they needed to make erstad and molina beat them, and somehow those two did. all you can do is tip your cap to that pair. also, did anyone hear joe buck say "it's your birthday" during the 50 cent song. that almost made up for mccarver, who had a lot of doozies last nite (my "favorite" was when he said pitchers don't throw harder as the game goes along. wasn't this guy a fucking major league catcher?? it is the norm for power pitchers like colon to throw harder in the middle innings than the early ones).

but aside from starting to know what rooting for the braves is like, i can't complain with the year - the yanks put together a solid season. overcoming the disasters to the rotation and coming from behind to catch the sox and take first (barely) showed some grit and resilience. i don't really know how many changes there need to be (though i am terrified that king george won't re-sign matsui just because he had a bad series), and i'm content to have a rotation of unit, moose, chacon, pavano, wang, wright, and small (it's not bad when your #7 went 10-0. and yes, i think they'll need all of these guys again). i expect womack, bellhorn, tino, leiter, and embree to be gone, but i wouldn't mind seeing lawton stick around.

it's sucks that the yanks and sox aren't battling tonite, but at least we still have a few weeks of baseball left. even though it won't get many viewers, the angels-chisox series should be awesome (very comparable teams), and i'm expecting ozzie to get run sometime in the series. i suppose i'll root for the chisox (mostly just want a close series), but i'm definitely pulling for the stros to win it all. it would be awesome to see bagwell get to dh a few games in the series and be a part of it.

**UPDATE: here's an si writer ripping fox and mccarver. he left out those annoying mid-inning interviews with torre and bud black, which split the screen and make the game harder to see. all to give us 2 minutes of canned reponses and cliches. the other day finley was in the background of the interview - and at the plate at the same time. terrible.

Monday, October 10, 2005

i obviously didn't get to make any predictions last week, but here's what they were (you'll just have to trust me):

yanks in 5
chisox in 4
stros in 4
cards in 4

yanks over chisox in 6
stros over cards in 7

yanks over stros in 7

i'll have some series recaps tomorrow, but for now here's some quick takes on the yanks series.

angels:
-how many friggin diving plays are the halos gonna make? this is what i was asking myself for the first 3 games. on jeter's grounder figgins was due to NOT make a spectacular play. but bengie's play was phenomenal in almost getting jorgie, who needs to learn how to slide.
-steve finley is more or less terrible right now, but he scares me against mo more than any other angel. he's just one of those vets like bj surhoff who seem to have good at bats against rivera. i just wish mccarver would stop saying the angel hitters are taking pitches against mo that they would normally hit hard. dude, no one hits 94 mph pitches on the outside black hard. shut yur face.
-it is absolutely killing me that the molinas are wreaking havoc. i mean, flash drills one and the other comes in and ropes a tough pitch from proctor (his only good pitch in game 3). who are these guys, the wonder twins? i still say you have to make bengie and erstad beat you, but i didn't actually think it would happen.

yanks
-what was with giambi swinging at 3 straight pitches from escobar on sunday? all three were balls. granted, those splitters were nasty with a capital N, but he's the most patient hitter they have. and with bases loaded no less.
-ruben was due. i hadn't seen him hit a ball hard in a month. by that thinking, tino is due as well. but until he remembers that you're allowed to hit the ball to the left of second base he won't do shit.
-bernie is officially out of pop. a 9th inning homer by brad ausmus would surprise me less than a homer by williams (um, wait). he got good wood on the ball in his 4th ab last nite, and it went 360 feet to dead center. i still love him, and i hope they bring him back as a 4th of, but i have to stop expecting even gappers from him.

two saturdays ago started with a gorgeous morning at albuquerque's annual balloon fiesta, walking around fiesta park gaping at the hundreds of hot air balloons taking off right and left. a few hours, a breakfast burrito and a brat later, we were headed home for an afternoon of margaritas and the yanks game. but that all changed when my father-in-law needed emergency spleen surgery just days after having a kidney removed. by 5pm we were catching a flight to minneapolis expecting, well, let's just say we packed nice clothes in case there was to be a funeral.

i was preparing myself to help nina through potentially the toughest week of her life. she is very close with her dad, and all i could tell her on the drive to the airport was that her dad is a tough man, a fighter, and that we shouldn't think the worst just yet. of course those things are true, but i would've said anything i could to lessen her pain and fear. nina is not much of a crier. which made seeing her tears even more heartwrenching.

my father-in-law made it through saturday night and never looked back. by tuesday he had improved significantly and we were making jokes about how bruce had taken one look at the grim reaper and hit him in the balls with a 4 iron. by friday he was completely coherent and we were planning thanksgiving. we flew back sunday morning and he was moving from the ICU to a regular room.

i am so glad. for bruce, for his sisters, for my younger brother(-in-law) kurt and especially for my bride.

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