Wednesday, May 31, 2006
tuesday mlb notes, late edition
with the off day monday, today is basically like a tuesday...
-has gary matthews jr. finally figured out how to hit at age 31? it looks like this will be the first year he'll ever get > 500 ab's and he's off to a great start, amassing 26 extra base hits thus far (including 18 doubles, good for 2nd in the al behind mike lowell and the green monster). i would love to say that everything has clicked for sarge jr., and with players stretching out their primes more and more these days, it's possible. but his best eqa in the past three seasons is .265 (in 2004), so it's probably likely his .285 eqa and .298/.366/.524 will fade sometime.
-since i was camping over the weekend in the santa fe forest (i.e. drinking tecate, playing cards and getting stomped in backgammon), i haven't had time to fully appreciate the cubs signing tony womack (and subsequently batting pierre and womack 1-2. dear lord. i just threw up in my mouth). i mean, your team is terrible and clearly going nowhere in 2006, so why not bring in the worst offensive player in the majors to (a) add a head to the neifi perez/jerry hairston monster, and (b) block the two young 2b's in aaa (ryan theriot and mike fontenot)? i really have to give dusty baker some credit for continuing to play matt murton - by this point i figured marvin bernard would be roaming lf for the cubbies.
this organization is in complete and utter shambles. chicago fans should be praying mark cuban buys the team. hell, i could care less about the cubs and i'm praying cuban buys them. i feel like there's a strong chance he would (a) turn the franchise around, (b) make so so so much money in the process, and (c) be the first owner to let the guys from baseball prospectus run his organization. it really seems like a win, win, win.
-alfonso soriano has 18 home runs? really? how have i not noticed this? the only reason i did was because i wanted to see how far ahead of his closest competitor pujols was in the home run race (he has 39% more than the second place guys, soriano and howard) and rbi race (he has 33% more than andruw jones). wow.
-every knows wins (and even quality starts) are deceptive statistics, but here are some fun facts surrounding them anyway:
top 5 guys in quality start percentage, followed by their wins per qs percentage:
1. moose 100% (11/11), 55%
1. capuano 100% (11/11), 45%
3. glavine 91% (10/11), 80%
3. webb 91% (10/11), 80%
5. verlander 90% (9/10), 78%
of pitchers who have thrown qs's in at least 1/2 of their starts, those with win/qs percentages under 50%:
1. moyer, 25%
2. lowe, 33%
3. brett myers, 44%
4. capuano, 45%
of pitchers who have thrown qs in at least 1/2 of their starts, those with win/qs percentages over 100%:
1. rogers 116%
2. kazmir 116%
3. schilling 114%
with the off day monday, today is basically like a tuesday...
-has gary matthews jr. finally figured out how to hit at age 31? it looks like this will be the first year he'll ever get > 500 ab's and he's off to a great start, amassing 26 extra base hits thus far (including 18 doubles, good for 2nd in the al behind mike lowell and the green monster). i would love to say that everything has clicked for sarge jr., and with players stretching out their primes more and more these days, it's possible. but his best eqa in the past three seasons is .265 (in 2004), so it's probably likely his .285 eqa and .298/.366/.524 will fade sometime.
-since i was camping over the weekend in the santa fe forest (i.e. drinking tecate, playing cards and getting stomped in backgammon), i haven't had time to fully appreciate the cubs signing tony womack (and subsequently batting pierre and womack 1-2. dear lord. i just threw up in my mouth). i mean, your team is terrible and clearly going nowhere in 2006, so why not bring in the worst offensive player in the majors to (a) add a head to the neifi perez/jerry hairston monster, and (b) block the two young 2b's in aaa (ryan theriot and mike fontenot)? i really have to give dusty baker some credit for continuing to play matt murton - by this point i figured marvin bernard would be roaming lf for the cubbies.
this organization is in complete and utter shambles. chicago fans should be praying mark cuban buys the team. hell, i could care less about the cubs and i'm praying cuban buys them. i feel like there's a strong chance he would (a) turn the franchise around, (b) make so so so much money in the process, and (c) be the first owner to let the guys from baseball prospectus run his organization. it really seems like a win, win, win.
-alfonso soriano has 18 home runs? really? how have i not noticed this? the only reason i did was because i wanted to see how far ahead of his closest competitor pujols was in the home run race (he has 39% more than the second place guys, soriano and howard) and rbi race (he has 33% more than andruw jones). wow.
-every knows wins (and even quality starts) are deceptive statistics, but here are some fun facts surrounding them anyway:
top 5 guys in quality start percentage, followed by their wins per qs percentage:
1. moose 100% (11/11), 55%
1. capuano 100% (11/11), 45%
3. glavine 91% (10/11), 80%
3. webb 91% (10/11), 80%
5. verlander 90% (9/10), 78%
of pitchers who have thrown qs's in at least 1/2 of their starts, those with win/qs percentages under 50%:
1. moyer, 25%
2. lowe, 33%
3. brett myers, 44%
4. capuano, 45%
of pitchers who have thrown qs in at least 1/2 of their starts, those with win/qs percentages over 100%:
1. rogers 116%
2. kazmir 116%
3. schilling 114%
Friday, May 26, 2006
friday mlb notes
this won't be too long, as we're heading to the pecos wilderness to camp this weekend in a few minutes (72 beers for 3 people should be enough, right?).
-there are only 10 players in the majors thus far in 2006 that have a bb/ab rate above .2 (meaning the player draws at least one walk for roughly every 6 pa's) AND a bb/k rate over 1 (meaning more walks than punchouts). i'll list them here by decreasing bb/ab rates with bb/k rates in parens:
1. bonds: .42 (3.14) - best .250 hitter ever?.
2. giambi: .34 (1.3) - can't you get the yanks to sign your brother over t-long?
3. beltran: .33 (1.66) - finally earning those paychecks
4. hafner: .24 (1.15) - the left-handed edgar martinez?
4T. cruz jr.: .24 (1.15) - wha?? expect that bb/k rate to drop under 1 ASAP.
6. pujols: .23 (3.08) - more homers than k's. abba zabba.
7. helton: .23 (1.59) - his lack of homers is bothersome.
8. catalanatto: .22 (2.0) - great production for his pricetag.
9. brian giles: .2 (2.06) - still very good, but wouldn't hit 3rd anymore with a good lineup.
10. hatteberg: .2 (1.92) - a's are probably missing him.
-tony la russa, one of the games "top" managers, continues to play the horrific juan encarnacion (.284 obp, .684 ops, .227 eqa) every day when he has 2-3 guys on his bench well outperforming him:
john rodriguez: 75 abs, .847 ops, .294 eqa
hector luna (big upgrade from abraham nunez): 84 abs, .908 ops, .296 eqa
scott spiezio: 82, .943 ops, .315 eqa
i'm not saying encarnacion, who is clearly underperforming, should ride the bench permanently (nor am i saying spiezio should be playing the outfield), but you'd think la russa would try to cut encarnacion's pt while boosting at least one of those 3 super-subs.
-three backup catchers who should probably get an extra start each week:
1. greg zaun (.348/.392/.682 in 66 ab's) over million dollar molina (.270/.308/.402 in 122 ab's). here's to hoping the yanks can get zaun while jorge is down, then cut stinett when posada is back.
2. gerald laird (.327/.340/.481 in 52 ab's) over rod barajas (.246/.292/.393 in 122 ab's). i think the rangers should trade barajas and let laird take over, but i suppose they need to let barajas improve his numbers so they're not selling so low.
3. todd greene (.394/.394/.570 in 33 ab's) over mike matheny (.250/.297/.361 in 144 ab's). playing matheny that much is just plain gross.
this won't be too long, as we're heading to the pecos wilderness to camp this weekend in a few minutes (72 beers for 3 people should be enough, right?).
-there are only 10 players in the majors thus far in 2006 that have a bb/ab rate above .2 (meaning the player draws at least one walk for roughly every 6 pa's) AND a bb/k rate over 1 (meaning more walks than punchouts). i'll list them here by decreasing bb/ab rates with bb/k rates in parens:
1. bonds: .42 (3.14) - best .250 hitter ever?.
2. giambi: .34 (1.3) - can't you get the yanks to sign your brother over t-long?
3. beltran: .33 (1.66) - finally earning those paychecks
4. hafner: .24 (1.15) - the left-handed edgar martinez?
4T. cruz jr.: .24 (1.15) - wha?? expect that bb/k rate to drop under 1 ASAP.
6. pujols: .23 (3.08) - more homers than k's. abba zabba.
7. helton: .23 (1.59) - his lack of homers is bothersome.
8. catalanatto: .22 (2.0) - great production for his pricetag.
9. brian giles: .2 (2.06) - still very good, but wouldn't hit 3rd anymore with a good lineup.
10. hatteberg: .2 (1.92) - a's are probably missing him.
-tony la russa, one of the games "top" managers, continues to play the horrific juan encarnacion (.284 obp, .684 ops, .227 eqa) every day when he has 2-3 guys on his bench well outperforming him:
john rodriguez: 75 abs, .847 ops, .294 eqa
hector luna (big upgrade from abraham nunez): 84 abs, .908 ops, .296 eqa
scott spiezio: 82, .943 ops, .315 eqa
i'm not saying encarnacion, who is clearly underperforming, should ride the bench permanently (nor am i saying spiezio should be playing the outfield), but you'd think la russa would try to cut encarnacion's pt while boosting at least one of those 3 super-subs.
-three backup catchers who should probably get an extra start each week:
1. greg zaun (.348/.392/.682 in 66 ab's) over million dollar molina (.270/.308/.402 in 122 ab's). here's to hoping the yanks can get zaun while jorge is down, then cut stinett when posada is back.
2. gerald laird (.327/.340/.481 in 52 ab's) over rod barajas (.246/.292/.393 in 122 ab's). i think the rangers should trade barajas and let laird take over, but i suppose they need to let barajas improve his numbers so they're not selling so low.
3. todd greene (.394/.394/.570 in 33 ab's) over mike matheny (.250/.297/.361 in 144 ab's). playing matheny that much is just plain gross.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
tuesday's mlb notes
my apologies for no post on friday. i was busy throwing my father-in-law a surpirse 60th birthday party in minneapolis. we rented out a vfw. classic. anyway, onto the notes.
-has anyone else completely forgot that raffy and slammin sammy are out of baseball? are you telling me the red sox couldn't use palmeiro over jt snow? sammy may be another issue entirely, but there has to be someone who needs (or will need at some point) a lh hitter off the bench who kills rhp.
-the other nite during some game i was watching, the broadcast threw up a "top nl rookies" thing on the screen. they showed fielder, willingham, ramirez, conor jackson, and barfield. ignoring the fact that some of those guys aren't technically in the ROY race, why is it that barfield is getting so much attention but fellow second baseman dan uggla is being ignored? sure uggla has an awful name (it sounds like something you'd call the hefty girl who monopolizes the keg in college), but he's reaching base at nearly a .370 clip and slugging .474. his 6 homers rank him 2nd in the nl as a second baseman (tied with kent, trailing utley), and he doesn't exactly play in cincy. his eqa (.288) is 25 points higher than barfield's. up to this point, there's not much doubt who's been better.
-by not posting friday, i missed out on ranting about how the angels were pathetic for not cutting the abysmal edgardo alfonzo (who has really made it easy to forget how great he was in the late 90's). finally the angels cut ties with the aging infielder, and perhaps they have realized it's time to play the young'uns. i've been saying for weeks on this rag (stole that line from you ace) that la needs to trade kennedy, and it's probably time for them to get what they can for orlando cabrera. it be good for them to also turn erstad into a roving instructor, because at this point he has a better chance of becoming an nfl punter than ever being a useful mlb asset (plus he could teach minor leaguers how to put a mean dip in). trot out an infield of kotchman, kendrick, aybar, and mcpherson (for the time being) and let those kids play. trading vladdy wouldn't be the worst either.
-if you'd have predicted at the season's output that seattle's jose lopez would close out may with as many extra base hits as sexson and beltre combined (barring injury to those 2 of course), i'd have said you were as crazy as ron artest. but that's exactly what lopez has done en route to becoming the mariners best offensive player. his 22 extra base hits and .511 slg lead seattle's admittedly terrible lineup (only 5 regulars with an above average eqa).
-san diego leads the majors with an eye-opening 92% sb rate (36 of 39!). i'm not a big fan of the stolen base, but i'm fairly sure that rate is considered favorable to run expectation in any situation. it's ironic that their manager was a slow footed catcher.
my apologies for no post on friday. i was busy throwing my father-in-law a surpirse 60th birthday party in minneapolis. we rented out a vfw. classic. anyway, onto the notes.
-has anyone else completely forgot that raffy and slammin sammy are out of baseball? are you telling me the red sox couldn't use palmeiro over jt snow? sammy may be another issue entirely, but there has to be someone who needs (or will need at some point) a lh hitter off the bench who kills rhp.
-the other nite during some game i was watching, the broadcast threw up a "top nl rookies" thing on the screen. they showed fielder, willingham, ramirez, conor jackson, and barfield. ignoring the fact that some of those guys aren't technically in the ROY race, why is it that barfield is getting so much attention but fellow second baseman dan uggla is being ignored? sure uggla has an awful name (it sounds like something you'd call the hefty girl who monopolizes the keg in college), but he's reaching base at nearly a .370 clip and slugging .474. his 6 homers rank him 2nd in the nl as a second baseman (tied with kent, trailing utley), and he doesn't exactly play in cincy. his eqa (.288) is 25 points higher than barfield's. up to this point, there's not much doubt who's been better.
-by not posting friday, i missed out on ranting about how the angels were pathetic for not cutting the abysmal edgardo alfonzo (who has really made it easy to forget how great he was in the late 90's). finally the angels cut ties with the aging infielder, and perhaps they have realized it's time to play the young'uns. i've been saying for weeks on this rag (stole that line from you ace) that la needs to trade kennedy, and it's probably time for them to get what they can for orlando cabrera. it be good for them to also turn erstad into a roving instructor, because at this point he has a better chance of becoming an nfl punter than ever being a useful mlb asset (plus he could teach minor leaguers how to put a mean dip in). trot out an infield of kotchman, kendrick, aybar, and mcpherson (for the time being) and let those kids play. trading vladdy wouldn't be the worst either.
-if you'd have predicted at the season's output that seattle's jose lopez would close out may with as many extra base hits as sexson and beltre combined (barring injury to those 2 of course), i'd have said you were as crazy as ron artest. but that's exactly what lopez has done en route to becoming the mariners best offensive player. his 22 extra base hits and .511 slg lead seattle's admittedly terrible lineup (only 5 regulars with an above average eqa).
-san diego leads the majors with an eye-opening 92% sb rate (36 of 39!). i'm not a big fan of the stolen base, but i'm fairly sure that rate is considered favorable to run expectation in any situation. it's ironic that their manager was a slow footed catcher.
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
tuesday mlb notes
-there's not much going right in kansas city these days. the royals have precisely zero regulars with an obp over .350, and things have gotten so bad they are using kerry robinson in the outfield. their opponents ops is almost .150 points higher than their own (.834 to .691), and kc's best starter is (gasp) scott elarton. he has as many wins this year as mark gubicza.
the lone bright spots have been relievers mike wood and elmer dessens, who have combined for 5 wins (50% of the team total). 2/3's of mike wood's relief appearances have been for at least 2 innings, and he's gone 4+ innings in 1/3. wood has definitely benefitted from some luck, as his delta hits and delta runs are both negative. but somehow he's keeping runs off the board (sub-3 era despite a 1.50 whip) and chewing up a ton of innings in the process.
dessens has racked up a 5-1 k-bb ratio and is striking our more than a hitter an inning. he's only served up one gopher ball in 19.2 innings, which is by far his best rate since 2000 when he split time as a starter and reliever for cincy. but don't be too happy for kc about dessens - he's 35 years old and makes almost $2 mil in 06.
-the best part of jorge posada's game tuesday nite was not his walk off homer. it was his block of home plate that prevented texiera from scoring in the 6th. yanks fans far and wide know posada has been somewhat of a puss when it comes to taking a hit and holding onto the ball, but hopefully he's turned the corner on this type of play. jorgie got his bell rung on the play (a lot worse than on others he's dropped in the past) but absorbed the hit and recorded the crucial, momentum-shifting out.
-message to russ springer: you are an embarrassment to pitchers everywhere (and not just for having beef with a batter you've faced only 3 times in the last 5 years). it takes you 5 pitches to hit a batter?! none of those 5 were to "set up" the hbp so you could claim it was an accident either, and your target is about as agile as an rv. that's weak, man. very weak.
-i'm guessing boston fans were clamoring for dustin pedroia when mark loretta started so poorly, but the former all-star has been on quite a tear of late. in his last 10 games, loretta has 8 multi-hit games, is hitting at a .524 clip, and has raised his average more than 80 points. his overall numbers still aren't very impressive, and his isolated obp this year is likely going to be consistently down from his career numbers (hitting in front of papi and manny will make that happen to a singles-doubles hitter), but this is a great sign for the sox. and for anyone who enjoys watching loretta's great 2 strike approach.
-is their any rotation getting overlooked more than that of the dodgers? the trio of brad penny (2.66 era, .614 ops against), derek lowe (3.45, .627), and brett tomko (2.88, .681) make la the only team in the majors with 3 starters in the top 30 (top 20%) in era and ops against. despite all this, and the fact that their hitters are out-ops'ing opponents .770 to .724, the dodgers are only a .500 team. with kent's bat waking up and nomar continuing his resurgence as one of the games elite hitters, i can't imagine they'll be just .500 for long.
-there's not much going right in kansas city these days. the royals have precisely zero regulars with an obp over .350, and things have gotten so bad they are using kerry robinson in the outfield. their opponents ops is almost .150 points higher than their own (.834 to .691), and kc's best starter is (gasp) scott elarton. he has as many wins this year as mark gubicza.
the lone bright spots have been relievers mike wood and elmer dessens, who have combined for 5 wins (50% of the team total). 2/3's of mike wood's relief appearances have been for at least 2 innings, and he's gone 4+ innings in 1/3. wood has definitely benefitted from some luck, as his delta hits and delta runs are both negative. but somehow he's keeping runs off the board (sub-3 era despite a 1.50 whip) and chewing up a ton of innings in the process.
dessens has racked up a 5-1 k-bb ratio and is striking our more than a hitter an inning. he's only served up one gopher ball in 19.2 innings, which is by far his best rate since 2000 when he split time as a starter and reliever for cincy. but don't be too happy for kc about dessens - he's 35 years old and makes almost $2 mil in 06.
-the best part of jorge posada's game tuesday nite was not his walk off homer. it was his block of home plate that prevented texiera from scoring in the 6th. yanks fans far and wide know posada has been somewhat of a puss when it comes to taking a hit and holding onto the ball, but hopefully he's turned the corner on this type of play. jorgie got his bell rung on the play (a lot worse than on others he's dropped in the past) but absorbed the hit and recorded the crucial, momentum-shifting out.
-message to russ springer: you are an embarrassment to pitchers everywhere (and not just for having beef with a batter you've faced only 3 times in the last 5 years). it takes you 5 pitches to hit a batter?! none of those 5 were to "set up" the hbp so you could claim it was an accident either, and your target is about as agile as an rv. that's weak, man. very weak.
-i'm guessing boston fans were clamoring for dustin pedroia when mark loretta started so poorly, but the former all-star has been on quite a tear of late. in his last 10 games, loretta has 8 multi-hit games, is hitting at a .524 clip, and has raised his average more than 80 points. his overall numbers still aren't very impressive, and his isolated obp this year is likely going to be consistently down from his career numbers (hitting in front of papi and manny will make that happen to a singles-doubles hitter), but this is a great sign for the sox. and for anyone who enjoys watching loretta's great 2 strike approach.
-is their any rotation getting overlooked more than that of the dodgers? the trio of brad penny (2.66 era, .614 ops against), derek lowe (3.45, .627), and brett tomko (2.88, .681) make la the only team in the majors with 3 starters in the top 30 (top 20%) in era and ops against. despite all this, and the fact that their hitters are out-ops'ing opponents .770 to .724, the dodgers are only a .500 team. with kent's bat waking up and nomar continuing his resurgence as one of the games elite hitters, i can't imagine they'll be just .500 for long.
Friday, May 12, 2006
friday mlb notes
-the padres offense is rather abysmal, with only 3 hitters posting an above average eqa (giles, greene, roberts). but in the crapshoot of a division they play in, the dads will probably be in the mix of things til september because of a relatively strong rotation (top 4 in that group have whip's under 1.30). my question is how long they will continue to start (yo) adrian gonzalez at first? he started hot, but in the last 3 weeks has been mired in a 6-53 slump with only 3 free passes and no homers. with vinny castilla aka "the hair" struggling at the dish as well, san diego needs to do something to boost production from the corners. enter paul mcanulty, who baseball america ranked in sd's top 5 (i believe, top 10 at worst) prospects this winter. he has been on a tear of late at portland, and has 8 jacks with an ops hovering at .970 (yes it's in the hitter friendly pcl, but still). gonzalez is only 24, but he seems the type of guy who kills AAA pitching yet can't find his place in the majors (the fact that he's been rated as a top 10 prospect for both the fish and rangers yet been traded twice doesn't boost my confidence either). i'm not sure what gonzalez's deal with options is, but this seems like the time to give the 25 year old mcanulty a shot.
-can someone explain to me how the brewers are under .500? their team ops (.806) is 100 point higher than that of their opponents (.706). their offensive numbers aren't drastically different with runners in scoring position, and despite the commonly accepted notion that weeks and fielder are killing them defensively BP rates them as an above average defensive team. what gives?
-this whole tom glavine entering the golden years is getting ridiculous. and i'm not talking about his impressive work on the mound. glavine, always a decent hitter for a pitcher, is hitting .500 in his 8 starts this year.
-if you're going to get to josh beckett, you better do it right away. beckett has given up a whopping 30% of both his total baserunners allowed (for a whip of 2.29) and 30% his total earned runs in the first inning. his whip after the initial frame is 1.03.
-tim worrell has given up 5 homers in his last 5 innings, pitching himself from closer/set up man to mop up duty. after getting bombed on consecutive nights on april 20 and 21 (7 er's, 1.1 innings, 3 hr's allowed) felipe alou has been hesitant to use him and worrell hasn't done anything to get himself out of the doghouse.
-on april 28 i surmised that phil nevin was making an early run at comeback player of the year. in the two weeks since, he's hit .156 with no homers. on april 14 i credited milwaukee's pen for the brewers hot start. though i wasn't making any projections about them, the core group of relievers proceeded to get shelled in the following week. what does this mean? i may have just jinxed the bats of glavine and mcanulty. more importantly for my classic 4x4 nl-only league, though (where you can't release guys until they either go on the dl or to the minors), hopefully i just turned worrell back into a serviceable reliever. and if that doesn't happen, can jeff kent show worrell how to wash a car?
-the padres offense is rather abysmal, with only 3 hitters posting an above average eqa (giles, greene, roberts). but in the crapshoot of a division they play in, the dads will probably be in the mix of things til september because of a relatively strong rotation (top 4 in that group have whip's under 1.30). my question is how long they will continue to start (yo) adrian gonzalez at first? he started hot, but in the last 3 weeks has been mired in a 6-53 slump with only 3 free passes and no homers. with vinny castilla aka "the hair" struggling at the dish as well, san diego needs to do something to boost production from the corners. enter paul mcanulty, who baseball america ranked in sd's top 5 (i believe, top 10 at worst) prospects this winter. he has been on a tear of late at portland, and has 8 jacks with an ops hovering at .970 (yes it's in the hitter friendly pcl, but still). gonzalez is only 24, but he seems the type of guy who kills AAA pitching yet can't find his place in the majors (the fact that he's been rated as a top 10 prospect for both the fish and rangers yet been traded twice doesn't boost my confidence either). i'm not sure what gonzalez's deal with options is, but this seems like the time to give the 25 year old mcanulty a shot.
-can someone explain to me how the brewers are under .500? their team ops (.806) is 100 point higher than that of their opponents (.706). their offensive numbers aren't drastically different with runners in scoring position, and despite the commonly accepted notion that weeks and fielder are killing them defensively BP rates them as an above average defensive team. what gives?
-this whole tom glavine entering the golden years is getting ridiculous. and i'm not talking about his impressive work on the mound. glavine, always a decent hitter for a pitcher, is hitting .500 in his 8 starts this year.
-if you're going to get to josh beckett, you better do it right away. beckett has given up a whopping 30% of both his total baserunners allowed (for a whip of 2.29) and 30% his total earned runs in the first inning. his whip after the initial frame is 1.03.
-tim worrell has given up 5 homers in his last 5 innings, pitching himself from closer/set up man to mop up duty. after getting bombed on consecutive nights on april 20 and 21 (7 er's, 1.1 innings, 3 hr's allowed) felipe alou has been hesitant to use him and worrell hasn't done anything to get himself out of the doghouse.
-on april 28 i surmised that phil nevin was making an early run at comeback player of the year. in the two weeks since, he's hit .156 with no homers. on april 14 i credited milwaukee's pen for the brewers hot start. though i wasn't making any projections about them, the core group of relievers proceeded to get shelled in the following week. what does this mean? i may have just jinxed the bats of glavine and mcanulty. more importantly for my classic 4x4 nl-only league, though (where you can't release guys until they either go on the dl or to the minors), hopefully i just turned worrell back into a serviceable reliever. and if that doesn't happen, can jeff kent show worrell how to wash a car?
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
tuesday mlb notes
-best 3 benches in the american league:
1. toronto
they have hinske (.806 ops) as their 5th outfielder, and he can play both corner if positions. their back up catcher was the starter the past two years (greg zaun) and has posted an .889 ops thus far in 2006. not to mention the fantastic platoon in lf (cat and johnson), always giving them 1 more good bat off the bench no matter the hand the opponent starter throws with. john mcdonald (sadly) isn't much of a downgrade from hill and/or adams (yes i know they're better than him, but in 06 that statement is true).
2. tampa bay
when huff and baldelli return, they have wigginton (9 hr's) and some combo of hollins (isolated power > .200) and gaithright (isolated obp ~.140) off the bench. add branyan to the mix and that is one solid group.
3. seattle
a big drop from toronto and the d-rays, but the combo of lawton, petagine and bloomquist ain't to shabby. bloomquist can play a ton of positions, lawton was a very good hitter not too long ago, and my love of petagine has been documented here before.
-worst 3 benches in the american league:
14. oakland
not one guy off the bench has an obp that cracks .300, and adam melheuse leads the way in the slugging department at .360. payton has been awful this far (due to overexposure most likely), and oakland must be dying for bradley to get off the dl so they can limit the former mets prospect to lhp.
13. yanks
you could definitely argue that phillips, cairo, stinett and crosby are a worse foursome than oakland has. but at least crosby has an obp > .300 (.320) and stinett is slugging almost .400 (yippee! ruben sierra where have you gone?). i have been a big andy phillips supporter for years, but even my patience is wearing thin. torre is starting him about once a week and he is doing jack shit with that (albeit limited) opportunity. with bernie a shell of his former self (so sad), the dh role against lhp is up for grabs and ol' andy is missing out on his chance. i'm hoping in sheff's absence, torre trots melky cabrera out to rf, but i have a bad feeling those ab's are going to crosby and williams.
12. chisox
once pablo ozuna (ops >1.000) comes back to earth, this crew could fall in the rankings. excluding ozuna, they lack a bench player with an obp over .300 and someone who slugs over .340. yuck.
-everyone playing the cubs must be ecstatic that dusty baker continues to pencil juan pierre and his womack-esque .284 obp into the leadoff spot. with lee out and aramis ramirez struggling, it makes just too much sense to throw matt murton and his .374 obp into the 1 hole. i'd also like to point out the cubs are paying $10 million for a cf and rf who (a) both have obp's < .300, and (b) have a combined 15 extra base hits. but hey, at least jacque jones does that "cool" bat flip when he jacks one out.
-with delmon young suspended 50 games, is there any way the d-rays can lend him to the st. paul saints (or any other indy league team) for the next 2 months?
-last nite matt holliday hit a low and away fastball on a line over the cf wall. in st. louis (not at coors). that guy is ridiculously strong (check out the size of his forearms next time you catch a rockies game). if those don't impress you, his home/road splits should - they're nearly identical (.937 ops at home, .932 on the road). with helton back, the rockies could pull away in the weak nl west in the next few weeks.
-roy found some interesting stuff in the standings. enjoy.
-best 3 benches in the american league:
1. toronto
they have hinske (.806 ops) as their 5th outfielder, and he can play both corner if positions. their back up catcher was the starter the past two years (greg zaun) and has posted an .889 ops thus far in 2006. not to mention the fantastic platoon in lf (cat and johnson), always giving them 1 more good bat off the bench no matter the hand the opponent starter throws with. john mcdonald (sadly) isn't much of a downgrade from hill and/or adams (yes i know they're better than him, but in 06 that statement is true).
2. tampa bay
when huff and baldelli return, they have wigginton (9 hr's) and some combo of hollins (isolated power > .200) and gaithright (isolated obp ~.140) off the bench. add branyan to the mix and that is one solid group.
3. seattle
a big drop from toronto and the d-rays, but the combo of lawton, petagine and bloomquist ain't to shabby. bloomquist can play a ton of positions, lawton was a very good hitter not too long ago, and my love of petagine has been documented here before.
-worst 3 benches in the american league:
14. oakland
not one guy off the bench has an obp that cracks .300, and adam melheuse leads the way in the slugging department at .360. payton has been awful this far (due to overexposure most likely), and oakland must be dying for bradley to get off the dl so they can limit the former mets prospect to lhp.
13. yanks
you could definitely argue that phillips, cairo, stinett and crosby are a worse foursome than oakland has. but at least crosby has an obp > .300 (.320) and stinett is slugging almost .400 (yippee! ruben sierra where have you gone?). i have been a big andy phillips supporter for years, but even my patience is wearing thin. torre is starting him about once a week and he is doing jack shit with that (albeit limited) opportunity. with bernie a shell of his former self (so sad), the dh role against lhp is up for grabs and ol' andy is missing out on his chance. i'm hoping in sheff's absence, torre trots melky cabrera out to rf, but i have a bad feeling those ab's are going to crosby and williams.
12. chisox
once pablo ozuna (ops >1.000) comes back to earth, this crew could fall in the rankings. excluding ozuna, they lack a bench player with an obp over .300 and someone who slugs over .340. yuck.
-everyone playing the cubs must be ecstatic that dusty baker continues to pencil juan pierre and his womack-esque .284 obp into the leadoff spot. with lee out and aramis ramirez struggling, it makes just too much sense to throw matt murton and his .374 obp into the 1 hole. i'd also like to point out the cubs are paying $10 million for a cf and rf who (a) both have obp's < .300, and (b) have a combined 15 extra base hits. but hey, at least jacque jones does that "cool" bat flip when he jacks one out.
-with delmon young suspended 50 games, is there any way the d-rays can lend him to the st. paul saints (or any other indy league team) for the next 2 months?
-last nite matt holliday hit a low and away fastball on a line over the cf wall. in st. louis (not at coors). that guy is ridiculously strong (check out the size of his forearms next time you catch a rockies game). if those don't impress you, his home/road splits should - they're nearly identical (.937 ops at home, .932 on the road). with helton back, the rockies could pull away in the weak nl west in the next few weeks.
-roy found some interesting stuff in the standings. enjoy.
Friday, May 05, 2006
cinco de mayo mlb notes
-how far have the minnesota twins fallen? luis castillo, the guy with as much power as glass joe, is leading the team in slugging at a .425 clip. sure, he doesn't lead the team in isolated power, but still. the twinkies are miserable. designated "hitter" rondell white, minny's cleanup hitter for most of the season thus far, has only 2 extra base hits, both doubles, and no walks. i read this week that if things didn't improve, they were going to trade hunter, white, stewart, etc. the only problem with that is, well, stewart aside, who wants them? i mentioned in my season preview that they might trade johan - sounded crazy, but if they can get a hershel walker type deal it would'nt be the worst idea.
-kudos to terry francona for using papelbon in a 6-6 game in the 9th this week. he wound up giving up his first run of the season, but it sure beats throwing someone like delcarmen out there.
-when bret saberhagen was on the royals, he had this weird pattern of being great in the odd years, and just good in the even years. enter casey blake and ben broussard, who are well on their respective ways to being "every other year" guys. blake and broussard are tearing the cover off the ball in 06 after alternating bad-good-bad from 03-05, and are probably the most important hitters in cleveland's lineup. hafner is laughably good (anyone see that homer he hit the other day on a high outside fastball? pulled it down the rf line), and victor martinez is also excellent. sizemore, peralta, and belliard are underperforming a bit but will come around. with a pitching staff that i see as questionable (though i know i'm in the minority), the tribe's ability to hang with the chisox will depend on their version of the killer b's (toss boone in).
-congrats to randy johnson for beating arch rival tampa bay. i think it's because eduardo perez is finally gone.
-minor league update: the "fat" catcher from moneyball (jeremy brown) has an obp just shy of .400 and slg just under .500. the a's may have been hoping lackey would've kicked kendall's ass to the dl for a while. brown needs to keep producing too, with former cal state masher kurt suzuki on his heels...steven drew is tearing it up in tuscon. and with counsell off to a very nice start, it seems the o-dog should be the one concerned about losing his job - counsell could easily move to second to make room for drew...brandon wood is crushing the ball in AA, possibly eliminating doubts about his rancho cuckawhatever-inflated numbers in 2005. dallas mcpherson, i think your days are numbered...fernando tatis (!!!) is hitting .305 for AAA ottawa...abe alvarez is off to a good start at pawtucket, leaving me to wonder how much longer the sox will go with dinardo in the 5th spot in the rotation...on his recent rehab assignment, aubrey huff was selected as the promotional batter in a specific inning and subsequently k'd, giving fans 1/2 price beer. gotta love minor league baseball.
-enjoy some coronas, dos equis, and margaritas tonite. i recommend milagro tequila with those margs. very tasty.
-how far have the minnesota twins fallen? luis castillo, the guy with as much power as glass joe, is leading the team in slugging at a .425 clip. sure, he doesn't lead the team in isolated power, but still. the twinkies are miserable. designated "hitter" rondell white, minny's cleanup hitter for most of the season thus far, has only 2 extra base hits, both doubles, and no walks. i read this week that if things didn't improve, they were going to trade hunter, white, stewart, etc. the only problem with that is, well, stewart aside, who wants them? i mentioned in my season preview that they might trade johan - sounded crazy, but if they can get a hershel walker type deal it would'nt be the worst idea.
-kudos to terry francona for using papelbon in a 6-6 game in the 9th this week. he wound up giving up his first run of the season, but it sure beats throwing someone like delcarmen out there.
-when bret saberhagen was on the royals, he had this weird pattern of being great in the odd years, and just good in the even years. enter casey blake and ben broussard, who are well on their respective ways to being "every other year" guys. blake and broussard are tearing the cover off the ball in 06 after alternating bad-good-bad from 03-05, and are probably the most important hitters in cleveland's lineup. hafner is laughably good (anyone see that homer he hit the other day on a high outside fastball? pulled it down the rf line), and victor martinez is also excellent. sizemore, peralta, and belliard are underperforming a bit but will come around. with a pitching staff that i see as questionable (though i know i'm in the minority), the tribe's ability to hang with the chisox will depend on their version of the killer b's (toss boone in).
-congrats to randy johnson for beating arch rival tampa bay. i think it's because eduardo perez is finally gone.
-minor league update: the "fat" catcher from moneyball (jeremy brown) has an obp just shy of .400 and slg just under .500. the a's may have been hoping lackey would've kicked kendall's ass to the dl for a while. brown needs to keep producing too, with former cal state masher kurt suzuki on his heels...steven drew is tearing it up in tuscon. and with counsell off to a very nice start, it seems the o-dog should be the one concerned about losing his job - counsell could easily move to second to make room for drew...brandon wood is crushing the ball in AA, possibly eliminating doubts about his rancho cuckawhatever-inflated numbers in 2005. dallas mcpherson, i think your days are numbered...fernando tatis (!!!) is hitting .305 for AAA ottawa...abe alvarez is off to a good start at pawtucket, leaving me to wonder how much longer the sox will go with dinardo in the 5th spot in the rotation...on his recent rehab assignment, aubrey huff was selected as the promotional batter in a specific inning and subsequently k'd, giving fans 1/2 price beer. gotta love minor league baseball.
-enjoy some coronas, dos equis, and margaritas tonite. i recommend milagro tequila with those margs. very tasty.
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
tuesday mlb notes late edition
-as of tuesday, 3 teams whose win total is greater than their eye-balled expected win total:
boston: a 15-11 record despite scoring less runs (124) than they've given up (130) giving them a run differential per game (RDPG) of -.23. their hitters have posted an ops of .771 and their pitchers have allowed an ops of .754. all this should point to a record ~ .500, not the .577 they have.
houston: 16-9 record, .6 RDPG, .813 ops for, .758 ops against. they should maybe be 3 games (but not 7) over .500.
cubs: 14-10 record, -.21 RDPG, .717 ops for, .764 ops against. they should probably be a game or so under .500.
-as of tuesday, 3 teams whose win total is less than their eye-balled expected win total:
yanks: 13-11 record despite a whopping 2.04 RDPG. own ops is .872, opponent ops is .676. wow. they should be 5 or 6 games over .500.
tribe: 14-13 record, .81 RDPG, .840 ops for, .785 ops against. cleveland should probably be 3-4 games over .500.
marlins: awful 6-17 record, -.83 RDPG, .733 ops for, .761 ops against. while still not good, poor florida should probably have 2-3 more wins.
-a swift kick in the ass goes out to joe torre for replacing aaron small with tanyon sturtze in monday's loss to the sox. in the bottom of the 8th with 1 out and runners at 1st and second, torre chose NOT to bring in either rivera (best choice) or farnsworth (or even proctor, who has been pitching well) to get out of the most important situation of the game. sturtze allowed a single, was immediately replaced (and not by rivera, though myers wasn't the worst choice there) and the rest is history. yes, rivera had been used the day before, but also had 2 days of rest prior to that.
-steve finley has 5 triples already. he had 4 total in 2004 and 2005 combined. but what may be even stranger is that he has NO doubles yet in 06. 4 of his triples have come at home, so i guess he can thank the large gaps of sf's home park. also, finley is quietly off to a nice start.
-i said at the time of the arroyo-pena trade that the reds got the better end of the deal, so let's take a look at how it's working out thus far:
with the trade:
reds
arroyo: 6 starts, 5 wins, > 7 inn/start, 7.05 k/9, .89 whip.
aurilia (getting the ab's pena would've made since freel moved to cf with griff's injury): ~.880 ops
sox
pena, platooning with nixon: ~.850 ops
dinardo/wells: 4 starts, 0 wins, < 5 inn/start, < 5 k/9, whip > 2.
without the trade:
reds
replacement level starter: projects better than the dinardo/wells combo, but significantly worse than arroyo
pena, full time: probably wouldn't be doing significantly better than aurilia has thus far
sox
mohr, platooning with nixon: he has a ~.620 ops in limited playing time, let's say he would be ~.750 (career .745) if he was consitently spelling nixon in right
arroyo: even if you inflate his numbers a bit for playing back in the al, he would still be boston's 2nd best pitcher behind schilling.
it's obvious in the short term the reds got a steal here, and we haven't even considered pena's atrocious defense (though admittedly i've ignored aurilia's d as well, but i assume a former ss will be at least average at 2b). but even if/when aurilia and arroyo drop down some, it just makes no sense that boston parted with a middle of the rotation starter (especially when the majority of their staff is old and/or injury prone) for a platoon player.
-as of tuesday, 3 teams whose win total is greater than their eye-balled expected win total:
boston: a 15-11 record despite scoring less runs (124) than they've given up (130) giving them a run differential per game (RDPG) of -.23. their hitters have posted an ops of .771 and their pitchers have allowed an ops of .754. all this should point to a record ~ .500, not the .577 they have.
houston: 16-9 record, .6 RDPG, .813 ops for, .758 ops against. they should maybe be 3 games (but not 7) over .500.
cubs: 14-10 record, -.21 RDPG, .717 ops for, .764 ops against. they should probably be a game or so under .500.
-as of tuesday, 3 teams whose win total is less than their eye-balled expected win total:
yanks: 13-11 record despite a whopping 2.04 RDPG. own ops is .872, opponent ops is .676. wow. they should be 5 or 6 games over .500.
tribe: 14-13 record, .81 RDPG, .840 ops for, .785 ops against. cleveland should probably be 3-4 games over .500.
marlins: awful 6-17 record, -.83 RDPG, .733 ops for, .761 ops against. while still not good, poor florida should probably have 2-3 more wins.
-a swift kick in the ass goes out to joe torre for replacing aaron small with tanyon sturtze in monday's loss to the sox. in the bottom of the 8th with 1 out and runners at 1st and second, torre chose NOT to bring in either rivera (best choice) or farnsworth (or even proctor, who has been pitching well) to get out of the most important situation of the game. sturtze allowed a single, was immediately replaced (and not by rivera, though myers wasn't the worst choice there) and the rest is history. yes, rivera had been used the day before, but also had 2 days of rest prior to that.
-steve finley has 5 triples already. he had 4 total in 2004 and 2005 combined. but what may be even stranger is that he has NO doubles yet in 06. 4 of his triples have come at home, so i guess he can thank the large gaps of sf's home park. also, finley is quietly off to a nice start.
-i said at the time of the arroyo-pena trade that the reds got the better end of the deal, so let's take a look at how it's working out thus far:
with the trade:
reds
arroyo: 6 starts, 5 wins, > 7 inn/start, 7.05 k/9, .89 whip.
aurilia (getting the ab's pena would've made since freel moved to cf with griff's injury): ~.880 ops
sox
pena, platooning with nixon: ~.850 ops
dinardo/wells: 4 starts, 0 wins, < 5 inn/start, < 5 k/9, whip > 2.
without the trade:
reds
replacement level starter: projects better than the dinardo/wells combo, but significantly worse than arroyo
pena, full time: probably wouldn't be doing significantly better than aurilia has thus far
sox
mohr, platooning with nixon: he has a ~.620 ops in limited playing time, let's say he would be ~.750 (career .745) if he was consitently spelling nixon in right
arroyo: even if you inflate his numbers a bit for playing back in the al, he would still be boston's 2nd best pitcher behind schilling.
it's obvious in the short term the reds got a steal here, and we haven't even considered pena's atrocious defense (though admittedly i've ignored aurilia's d as well, but i assume a former ss will be at least average at 2b). but even if/when aurilia and arroyo drop down some, it just makes no sense that boston parted with a middle of the rotation starter (especially when the majority of their staff is old and/or injury prone) for a platoon player.
