Friday, January 19, 2007
hot to trot
the other day at the office ahren and i were talking about how it was odd that trot nixon hadn't signed yet. we talked about how it was likely he was waiting for a multi-year deal, a la aubrey huff. we even discussed the relative value of huff and nixon, trying to figure out if 150 games of huff (and 12 games of replacement level player) were more valuable than 100 games of nixon (and 62 games of replacement level player). this is an interesting debate that we didn't really resolve, but either way it seemed clear nixon could get something similar to huff (maybe a year less, maybe a few dollars less, but at least comparable).
then today cleveland swoops in and makes arguably the bargain signing of the offseason - trot nixon, 1 year $3 mil. wow. i was floored. i am actually lying on the floor of my office (looking for a peanut m&m i dropped, but still).
this is just a fantastic signing. sure nixon had a rough showing in 2006 - slugging under .400 for a corner outfielder is rather unacceptable. but given that this was the first time he slugged under .445 in his 8 years as a regular (making last season's power outage looks like an outlier), that he still reached base at a .373 clip, and is only 32 years old, signing trot for 40% of his 2006 salary (and for only 1 year, so if he continues to slide it's a minimal loss) seems amazing. PECOTA projects his at a .349/.412 clip this year, but a move from fenway (tough on lhb's) to the jake (not so much) could bump that a bit. turning him into a strictly a platoon player, which i'll get to next, will help as well - nixon had 112 pa's against lhp's last year, which is, oh, 112 too many.
combined with the delucci signing (another excellent move) cleveland can now field fantastic platoons in both lf and rf, with sizemore obviously patrolling center full time. here are the splits for their corner outfielders for the past 3 years (obp/slg vs rhp, obp/slg vs lhp):
lf
delucci .366/.509, .284/.321
michaels .340/.380, .385/.429
rf
nixon .378/.471, .325/.295
blake .340/.454, .336/.500
you'll notice that blake is by no means incompetent against rhp, allowing him to play some 1b when it's not manned by ryan garko or victor martinez (who will likely see substantial time their to give his knees a rest given that hafner has to dh). you'll also notice how atrocious nixon is against southpaws, so his overall numbers will see an increase simply by not allowing him to face them. this is exactly what delucci's teams have done of late (texas, philly) with great success.
now, some people were perhaps ready to let shin-choo soo roam in right this year, after his .360/.452 2006 campaign. while this was definitely a very nice showing for the 24 year old (albeit in under 200 pa's), it's important to point out he k'd in 38% of his ab's. that is a signicant pace, and he was able to maintain good offensive numbers mostly due to a .411 BABIP (which is an amazingly high rate). soo seemed to have a lot of extra hits fall in during 2006, as his BABIP in AAA last year was .401 (following a .364 rate in 2005 at tacoma). in light of this, it seems best (or at least not at all bad) to start soo out again in aaa, and let him play his way into the majors by midseason. this is by no means a bad scenario, because it would allow the tribe to then deal nixon to another contender near the trade deadline (good thinking, roy).
really, there is nothing not to like with this move. transactions like this have made the indians another force to be reckoned with in the al central, now baseball's toughest division.
the other day at the office ahren and i were talking about how it was odd that trot nixon hadn't signed yet. we talked about how it was likely he was waiting for a multi-year deal, a la aubrey huff. we even discussed the relative value of huff and nixon, trying to figure out if 150 games of huff (and 12 games of replacement level player) were more valuable than 100 games of nixon (and 62 games of replacement level player). this is an interesting debate that we didn't really resolve, but either way it seemed clear nixon could get something similar to huff (maybe a year less, maybe a few dollars less, but at least comparable).
then today cleveland swoops in and makes arguably the bargain signing of the offseason - trot nixon, 1 year $3 mil. wow. i was floored. i am actually lying on the floor of my office (looking for a peanut m&m i dropped, but still).
this is just a fantastic signing. sure nixon had a rough showing in 2006 - slugging under .400 for a corner outfielder is rather unacceptable. but given that this was the first time he slugged under .445 in his 8 years as a regular (making last season's power outage looks like an outlier), that he still reached base at a .373 clip, and is only 32 years old, signing trot for 40% of his 2006 salary (and for only 1 year, so if he continues to slide it's a minimal loss) seems amazing. PECOTA projects his at a .349/.412 clip this year, but a move from fenway (tough on lhb's) to the jake (not so much) could bump that a bit. turning him into a strictly a platoon player, which i'll get to next, will help as well - nixon had 112 pa's against lhp's last year, which is, oh, 112 too many.
combined with the delucci signing (another excellent move) cleveland can now field fantastic platoons in both lf and rf, with sizemore obviously patrolling center full time. here are the splits for their corner outfielders for the past 3 years (obp/slg vs rhp, obp/slg vs lhp):
lf
delucci .366/.509, .284/.321
michaels .340/.380, .385/.429
rf
nixon .378/.471, .325/.295
blake .340/.454, .336/.500
you'll notice that blake is by no means incompetent against rhp, allowing him to play some 1b when it's not manned by ryan garko or victor martinez (who will likely see substantial time their to give his knees a rest given that hafner has to dh). you'll also notice how atrocious nixon is against southpaws, so his overall numbers will see an increase simply by not allowing him to face them. this is exactly what delucci's teams have done of late (texas, philly) with great success.
now, some people were perhaps ready to let shin-choo soo roam in right this year, after his .360/.452 2006 campaign. while this was definitely a very nice showing for the 24 year old (albeit in under 200 pa's), it's important to point out he k'd in 38% of his ab's. that is a signicant pace, and he was able to maintain good offensive numbers mostly due to a .411 BABIP (which is an amazingly high rate). soo seemed to have a lot of extra hits fall in during 2006, as his BABIP in AAA last year was .401 (following a .364 rate in 2005 at tacoma). in light of this, it seems best (or at least not at all bad) to start soo out again in aaa, and let him play his way into the majors by midseason. this is by no means a bad scenario, because it would allow the tribe to then deal nixon to another contender near the trade deadline (good thinking, roy).
really, there is nothing not to like with this move. transactions like this have made the indians another force to be reckoned with in the al central, now baseball's toughest division.
Friday, January 05, 2007
nothing says welcome back quite like a little hot stove. so without further ado, here's my take on the big unit trade.
the yanks get:
luis vizcaino
this 32 year old reliever had a very nice 2006 for the d-backs, posting a whip of 1.22 and a BAA of only .215. in general, vizcaino's strength is his ability to miss bats - his k/9 over the past 4 seasons: 8.86, 7.88, 5.53, 9.92, with 2005 being a bit of an outlier (though it was the only of the 4 spent in the AL). i thought it was odd that the hard throwing right hander put up reverse splits last year, allowing a .281 obp and .288 slg vs lhh, but .336/.481 vs rhh. upon further inspection, though, this was not atypical for vizcaino - he's been a reverse split guy consistently for the past 3 years (.667 ops vs. lhh and .780 vs rhh over that span). this could be ok in new york, with the big power alley in left center and short porch in rf playing to his strengths.
what's not to like then? well, the knock for a few years on was his tendency to give up to many jacks. fortuntately, he seems to be taming those demons, as seen by his recent home run and ground ball trends:
hr/9: 2.32 (2003), 1.5 (2004), 1.03 (2005), 1.1* (2006)
gb/fb: .7, .72, 1.17, 1.23
*it should be noted that this slight increase was likely due to pitching in arizona. vizcaino gave up 6 of his 8 hr's this year at the BoB.
ross ohlendorf
a big 24 year old right handed starter out of princeton who has spent the last two seasons in AA. here are some stats from those 2 years:
2005: 26 starts, 157 inn, 1.46 whip, 8.25 k/9, k/bb rate ~3, 2.13 gb/fb rate, .57 hr/9
2006: 27 starts, 177.2 inn, 1.18 whip, 6.33 k/9, k/bb rate ~4, 1.57 gb/fb rate, .66 hr/9
steven jackson
another big 24 year old right handed starter who also spoent the last two seasons in AA.
2005: 28 starts, 158.2 inn, 1.65 whip, 5 k/9, k/bb rate ~1.5, 2.03 gb/fb rate, .8 hr/9
2006: 24 starts, 149.2 inn, 1.17 whip, 7.5 k/9, k/bb rate 2.8, 2.24 gb/fb rate, .36 hr/9 (that's 1 hr every 25 innings!)
these two guys each made significant (and similar) improvements in their second years in the southern league. the plus on both guys is their abilities to keep the ball in the yard, though the southern league is a pitcher's league. i'm guessing both will start the year in trenton (AAA) - which will have a very solid rotation by the way - but also doubt that either projects to be more than a #4 or #5 in the bigs. both are a bit too old for my taste to still have not reached AAA and neither is in baseball prospectus's top 10 prospects for the d-backs.
alberto gonzalez
gonzalez, who turns 24 in april (if his birth certificate is legit), also spent the year in AA. the ss posted a decent .290/.356/.392, but this was a downgrade from his .318/.359/.426 line at the same level in 2005. he struggled mightily in venezuelan winter ball though, and likely will do nothing more than replace felix escalona in the depth chart (read: will be lucky to ever become a miguel cairo). this is nothing more than a throw in, and i really don't like it. if i want to give you some free shit, it's still shit.
the yanks give up:
randy fucking johnson
sure he is 43 years old and a real sonofabitch. sure he's given up 58 homers to right handed hitters in the last two years. sure his back may detach itself from his legs at any time.
but in his 2 year stint in the bronx, the unit posted a 34-19 record and ammassed over 200 innings both seasons. way too much was made of his 5.00 era last year, as he still ranked 8th in the AL in whip (after ranking 2nd in 2005). and despite all those gopher balls, his obp against rh's the last two seasons were .300 and .309. not surprisingly, he remained dominant against lefties, allowing ops's of .497 and .537. in light of all this, $16 mil for one more season ain't too shabby. also, the rotation of moose, wanger, pettitte, and igawa will now depend on phillip hughes or humberto sanchez as it's #5 (unless pavano can somehow get his shit together, which i gather is as likely as me staying at work past 2pm today). not that i don't love hughes and sanchez, but i think both could use at least a few months in the minors before a summer call-up.
overall:
i'm disillusioned by this move as a yankee fan. the yanks improved their pen (vizcaino is a nice addition) and moderately strengthened the farm system while decreasing payroll (by $12 mil), but at a big cost (namely a still very, very good starter). it seems cashman took a big risk in the short term for a moderate risk (on ohlendorf and jackson panning out) in the not-so-distant future. they could use that $12 to chase the rocket, but at best they'll only get 1/2 a season of him, and he's by no means a sure thing to sign there. the only way this trade turns in new york's favor is if johnson's back is a disaster this year. i really can't believe they didn't get dustin nippert and/or micah owings. and honestly, i would've been happier if they have gotten 3 dozen baseballs and a 10-lb catfish (or andy green for that matter) in lieu of that gonzalez character.
i like the move significantly better from the d-backs perspective. despite being very young, they have a strong chance of winning the nl west with the addition of the unit (webb, unit, doug davis, livan, team gonzalez - very decent rotation). they are an organization rich in prospects and didn't give up any of their big ones. there is an immediate benefit to arizona here, and not much lost in return. a tip of the cap to josh byrnes is definitely in order. cashman gets nothing but a handjob from dougie minkietwicz (i'll get to this awfulness later).
the yanks get:
luis vizcaino
this 32 year old reliever had a very nice 2006 for the d-backs, posting a whip of 1.22 and a BAA of only .215. in general, vizcaino's strength is his ability to miss bats - his k/9 over the past 4 seasons: 8.86, 7.88, 5.53, 9.92, with 2005 being a bit of an outlier (though it was the only of the 4 spent in the AL). i thought it was odd that the hard throwing right hander put up reverse splits last year, allowing a .281 obp and .288 slg vs lhh, but .336/.481 vs rhh. upon further inspection, though, this was not atypical for vizcaino - he's been a reverse split guy consistently for the past 3 years (.667 ops vs. lhh and .780 vs rhh over that span). this could be ok in new york, with the big power alley in left center and short porch in rf playing to his strengths.
what's not to like then? well, the knock for a few years on was his tendency to give up to many jacks. fortuntately, he seems to be taming those demons, as seen by his recent home run and ground ball trends:
hr/9: 2.32 (2003), 1.5 (2004), 1.03 (2005), 1.1* (2006)
gb/fb: .7, .72, 1.17, 1.23
*it should be noted that this slight increase was likely due to pitching in arizona. vizcaino gave up 6 of his 8 hr's this year at the BoB.
ross ohlendorf
a big 24 year old right handed starter out of princeton who has spent the last two seasons in AA. here are some stats from those 2 years:
2005: 26 starts, 157 inn, 1.46 whip, 8.25 k/9, k/bb rate ~3, 2.13 gb/fb rate, .57 hr/9
2006: 27 starts, 177.2 inn, 1.18 whip, 6.33 k/9, k/bb rate ~4, 1.57 gb/fb rate, .66 hr/9
steven jackson
another big 24 year old right handed starter who also spoent the last two seasons in AA.
2005: 28 starts, 158.2 inn, 1.65 whip, 5 k/9, k/bb rate ~1.5, 2.03 gb/fb rate, .8 hr/9
2006: 24 starts, 149.2 inn, 1.17 whip, 7.5 k/9, k/bb rate 2.8, 2.24 gb/fb rate, .36 hr/9 (that's 1 hr every 25 innings!)
these two guys each made significant (and similar) improvements in their second years in the southern league. the plus on both guys is their abilities to keep the ball in the yard, though the southern league is a pitcher's league. i'm guessing both will start the year in trenton (AAA) - which will have a very solid rotation by the way - but also doubt that either projects to be more than a #4 or #5 in the bigs. both are a bit too old for my taste to still have not reached AAA and neither is in baseball prospectus's top 10 prospects for the d-backs.
alberto gonzalez
gonzalez, who turns 24 in april (if his birth certificate is legit), also spent the year in AA. the ss posted a decent .290/.356/.392, but this was a downgrade from his .318/.359/.426 line at the same level in 2005. he struggled mightily in venezuelan winter ball though, and likely will do nothing more than replace felix escalona in the depth chart (read: will be lucky to ever become a miguel cairo). this is nothing more than a throw in, and i really don't like it. if i want to give you some free shit, it's still shit.
the yanks give up:
randy fucking johnson
sure he is 43 years old and a real sonofabitch. sure he's given up 58 homers to right handed hitters in the last two years. sure his back may detach itself from his legs at any time.
but in his 2 year stint in the bronx, the unit posted a 34-19 record and ammassed over 200 innings both seasons. way too much was made of his 5.00 era last year, as he still ranked 8th in the AL in whip (after ranking 2nd in 2005). and despite all those gopher balls, his obp against rh's the last two seasons were .300 and .309. not surprisingly, he remained dominant against lefties, allowing ops's of .497 and .537. in light of all this, $16 mil for one more season ain't too shabby. also, the rotation of moose, wanger, pettitte, and igawa will now depend on phillip hughes or humberto sanchez as it's #5 (unless pavano can somehow get his shit together, which i gather is as likely as me staying at work past 2pm today). not that i don't love hughes and sanchez, but i think both could use at least a few months in the minors before a summer call-up.
overall:
i'm disillusioned by this move as a yankee fan. the yanks improved their pen (vizcaino is a nice addition) and moderately strengthened the farm system while decreasing payroll (by $12 mil), but at a big cost (namely a still very, very good starter). it seems cashman took a big risk in the short term for a moderate risk (on ohlendorf and jackson panning out) in the not-so-distant future. they could use that $12 to chase the rocket, but at best they'll only get 1/2 a season of him, and he's by no means a sure thing to sign there. the only way this trade turns in new york's favor is if johnson's back is a disaster this year. i really can't believe they didn't get dustin nippert and/or micah owings. and honestly, i would've been happier if they have gotten 3 dozen baseballs and a 10-lb catfish (or andy green for that matter) in lieu of that gonzalez character.
i like the move significantly better from the d-backs perspective. despite being very young, they have a strong chance of winning the nl west with the addition of the unit (webb, unit, doug davis, livan, team gonzalez - very decent rotation). they are an organization rich in prospects and didn't give up any of their big ones. there is an immediate benefit to arizona here, and not much lost in return. a tip of the cap to josh byrnes is definitely in order. cashman gets nothing but a handjob from dougie minkietwicz (i'll get to this awfulness later).
