Wednesday, February 28, 2007
jonesing for baseball at near crack-whore level, i got an early kick off to the season yesterday afternoon. at 3pm ahren and i left the office for the spacious confines of isotopes stadium, home of the marlins AAA squad and the university of new mexico lobos. the lobos were hosting texas tech, and despite the wind we were in for quite a D-1 treat. the hometown nine blew a big lead, and the red raiders, led by the 15 total bases of roger kieschnick (5-5, 2 hr's, 2 2b's, 3b - look for him in the 2008 draft) rallied to win 10-8. about the only thing not to like in this game was new mexico's use of the sac bunt with no outs in the 5th, leading 6-2. yuck.
anyway, it was a great appetizer for spring training games. the nl east has the most teams playing today, and that seems like enough of a reason to start of my 2007 mlb preview with a few squads from that division. when i complete a preview for each team in a division, i'll make my predictions for said division. i probably should've started this earlier, since averaging a team a day may be a bit aggressive given my writing layoff.
new york mets
expectations:
after a very nice 2006 campaign that ended with a jaw-dropping 12-6 hook by adam wainwright, expectations remain high.
lineup:
there was not much change (or to change) regarding the offense, and the signing of pee-handed moises alou at the expense of cranky cliff floyd will likely be moot (although it does balance a lineup tending a bit lefthanded). they have handed the 2b job to jose valentin, but this will likely be a platoon with damian easley since valentin can't hit lefties despite being a switch hitter. behind reyes, wright, delgado and beltran, the metropolitans will likely still boast the best lineup in the national league, and it could be even better if willie randolph has the cojones to relegate shawn green to 4th outfield status in place of lastings millege. i'm thinking lo duca will decline this year, but will likely remain adequate (if not hidden in the lineup by the big boppers).
grade: A
bench:
damian easley can draw a walk and hits lefties, and millege is arguably their 2nd best outfielder. endy chavez is a fine 5th outfielder who offers speed and not much else (don't expect a repeat of 2006). anderson hernandez won't see much time in the infield unless jose reyes' hamstrings act up, and that is a good thing for mets fans since he had a sub-.300 OBP in AAA last year. ramon castro is your run of the mill backup catcher.
grade: B
rotation:
the rotation boasts a 40-year old tom glavine and 4 question marks: el duque (random injuries always a concern), john maine (15 gopher balls in 90 innings last year), oliver perez (mr. inconsistency), and chan ho park (a number 5 at best). this has all the makings of a disaster, not to mention a tired bullpen. even if you assume mike pelfrey and phillip humber are rushed into the rotation at some point before pedro returns (if he does at all), it seems unlikely that both will have immediate success in the bigs. humber has yet to make a start above AA while pelfrey has only 6 starts in that category (2 in AAA and 4 in the majors last year), so both will likely need some more seasoning. perhaps the much belabored discussion of moving aaron heilman to the rotation comes to fruition? about the only thing that seems certain regarding the mets rotation is that it will probably contain about 12 guys once 2007 is in the books.
grade: C-
bullpen:
while there are some concerns about the bullpen as well (i.e. duaner sanchez's recovery from that taxi cab incident, which guillermo mota will show up this year), the mets did a nice job of solidifying things here. the additions of southpaw scott schoenweiss and flame-throwing ambiorix burgos will help, and that little rascal wagner is always good, but don't be surprised if the bullpen is spent by late summer due to lots of 4 inning outings by the starters.
grade: B+
phillies
expectations:
as i'm sure we've all heard a million times now, jimmy rollins thinks they are the team to beat. and he might be right.
lineup:
getting david bell (and the wet towel he swings) out of the lineup was imperative, and this was finally done (albeit 2 years too late). wes helms isn't a big name, but he quietly put together a great 2006 (.329/.390/.525 in 240 ab's, playing in florida no less). and while no one expects him to put up those types of numbers over a full season, he will likely slug over .400, something bell hasn't done since 2004. finding a replacement for bobby abreu was rather important, but the phils are for some reason happy to enter the season with aaron rowand in center and shane victorino at rf. playing one of those two is okay, but playing both adds a hole to your lineup. at least they have the best right side of an infield in the majors (howard and utley) and pat burrell (who for some reason seems much maligned by the organization despite EQA's over .300 the last two seasons) to anchor the middle of the order. jimmy rollins is an above average offensive shortstop (though not a good leadoff man) and rod barajas will certainly not kill you behind the plate, as playing in another small park will emphasize his only strength.
grade: B
bench:
despite missing all of 2006, jayson werth is a solid 4th outfielder who can hopefully grab victorino's job in right (pecota sees a .272/.357/.480 2007 for werth). i'm hoping michael bourn grabs the 5th OF job, since he can draw a walk, run and play solid d. carlos ruiz should be more than adequate as a backup catcher, and could even be splitting time with barajas on a more regular basis if he has a good spring. abraham nunez and danny sandoval provide nothing other than warm bodies as back up infielders, so philly fans should hope whatever utility NRI's (non-roster invitees) are in camp (brent abernathy and lou collier anyone?) do well in the grapefruit league.
grade: C
rotation:
here is philadelphia's strength - 5 very nice starters (brett myers, freddy garcia, cole hamels, jamie moyer, jon leiber), with a 6th (adam eaton) waiting in the wings. they were shopping the under-rated lieber all winter, in hopes of upgrading their outfield, to no avail. i think philly will be happy that the mench-lieber package fell through, as he is better than eaton and rounds out a great rotation.
grade: A+
bullpen:
always dependable tom gordon and matt smith, the only reasonably bright spot to the disastrous abreu trade, seem like the only guys on the roster sure to make the pen. ryan madson seems a likely candiate, as does antonio alfonseca (if only because 6 fingers are better than 5). but it seems like the rest will be determined by spring training performance. luckily they shouldn't have too much dependence on the bullpen.
grade: C
anyway, it was a great appetizer for spring training games. the nl east has the most teams playing today, and that seems like enough of a reason to start of my 2007 mlb preview with a few squads from that division. when i complete a preview for each team in a division, i'll make my predictions for said division. i probably should've started this earlier, since averaging a team a day may be a bit aggressive given my writing layoff.
new york mets
expectations:
after a very nice 2006 campaign that ended with a jaw-dropping 12-6 hook by adam wainwright, expectations remain high.
lineup:
there was not much change (or to change) regarding the offense, and the signing of pee-handed moises alou at the expense of cranky cliff floyd will likely be moot (although it does balance a lineup tending a bit lefthanded). they have handed the 2b job to jose valentin, but this will likely be a platoon with damian easley since valentin can't hit lefties despite being a switch hitter. behind reyes, wright, delgado and beltran, the metropolitans will likely still boast the best lineup in the national league, and it could be even better if willie randolph has the cojones to relegate shawn green to 4th outfield status in place of lastings millege. i'm thinking lo duca will decline this year, but will likely remain adequate (if not hidden in the lineup by the big boppers).
grade: A
bench:
damian easley can draw a walk and hits lefties, and millege is arguably their 2nd best outfielder. endy chavez is a fine 5th outfielder who offers speed and not much else (don't expect a repeat of 2006). anderson hernandez won't see much time in the infield unless jose reyes' hamstrings act up, and that is a good thing for mets fans since he had a sub-.300 OBP in AAA last year. ramon castro is your run of the mill backup catcher.
grade: B
rotation:
the rotation boasts a 40-year old tom glavine and 4 question marks: el duque (random injuries always a concern), john maine (15 gopher balls in 90 innings last year), oliver perez (mr. inconsistency), and chan ho park (a number 5 at best). this has all the makings of a disaster, not to mention a tired bullpen. even if you assume mike pelfrey and phillip humber are rushed into the rotation at some point before pedro returns (if he does at all), it seems unlikely that both will have immediate success in the bigs. humber has yet to make a start above AA while pelfrey has only 6 starts in that category (2 in AAA and 4 in the majors last year), so both will likely need some more seasoning. perhaps the much belabored discussion of moving aaron heilman to the rotation comes to fruition? about the only thing that seems certain regarding the mets rotation is that it will probably contain about 12 guys once 2007 is in the books.
grade: C-
bullpen:
while there are some concerns about the bullpen as well (i.e. duaner sanchez's recovery from that taxi cab incident, which guillermo mota will show up this year), the mets did a nice job of solidifying things here. the additions of southpaw scott schoenweiss and flame-throwing ambiorix burgos will help, and that little rascal wagner is always good, but don't be surprised if the bullpen is spent by late summer due to lots of 4 inning outings by the starters.
grade: B+
phillies
expectations:
as i'm sure we've all heard a million times now, jimmy rollins thinks they are the team to beat. and he might be right.
lineup:
getting david bell (and the wet towel he swings) out of the lineup was imperative, and this was finally done (albeit 2 years too late). wes helms isn't a big name, but he quietly put together a great 2006 (.329/.390/.525 in 240 ab's, playing in florida no less). and while no one expects him to put up those types of numbers over a full season, he will likely slug over .400, something bell hasn't done since 2004. finding a replacement for bobby abreu was rather important, but the phils are for some reason happy to enter the season with aaron rowand in center and shane victorino at rf. playing one of those two is okay, but playing both adds a hole to your lineup. at least they have the best right side of an infield in the majors (howard and utley) and pat burrell (who for some reason seems much maligned by the organization despite EQA's over .300 the last two seasons) to anchor the middle of the order. jimmy rollins is an above average offensive shortstop (though not a good leadoff man) and rod barajas will certainly not kill you behind the plate, as playing in another small park will emphasize his only strength.
grade: B
bench:
despite missing all of 2006, jayson werth is a solid 4th outfielder who can hopefully grab victorino's job in right (pecota sees a .272/.357/.480 2007 for werth). i'm hoping michael bourn grabs the 5th OF job, since he can draw a walk, run and play solid d. carlos ruiz should be more than adequate as a backup catcher, and could even be splitting time with barajas on a more regular basis if he has a good spring. abraham nunez and danny sandoval provide nothing other than warm bodies as back up infielders, so philly fans should hope whatever utility NRI's (non-roster invitees) are in camp (brent abernathy and lou collier anyone?) do well in the grapefruit league.
grade: C
rotation:
here is philadelphia's strength - 5 very nice starters (brett myers, freddy garcia, cole hamels, jamie moyer, jon leiber), with a 6th (adam eaton) waiting in the wings. they were shopping the under-rated lieber all winter, in hopes of upgrading their outfield, to no avail. i think philly will be happy that the mench-lieber package fell through, as he is better than eaton and rounds out a great rotation.
grade: A+
bullpen:
always dependable tom gordon and matt smith, the only reasonably bright spot to the disastrous abreu trade, seem like the only guys on the roster sure to make the pen. ryan madson seems a likely candiate, as does antonio alfonseca (if only because 6 fingers are better than 5). but it seems like the rest will be determined by spring training performance. luckily they shouldn't have too much dependence on the bullpen.
grade: C
