Friday, March 30, 2007
al east
yanks
hitting
new york has the best offense in the majors, even with doug minky taking ab's that should go to josh phelps. i question the decision to go with wil nieves as jorge's backup, especially with mike rivera recently clearing waivers in milwaukee. but really, that's just nitpicking.
pitching
with possible injuries to pettite, wang and 5th starter jeff karstens, the randy johnson trade is looking worse and worse. naming carl pavano as the opening day starter is not inspiring confidence in the bronx. it's looking more and more like phillip hughes won't be in scranton (no more columbus, folks) very long. the bullpen is as strong as it's been in a few years.
bosox
hitting
any lineup anchored with manny and papi is sure to score runs but boston does have a number of question marks in the lineup. namely, will varitek and crisp bounce back, and will dustin pedroia be able to produce as full time players? as a yanks fan, i have to say, unfortunately, yes to those questions. sure varitek is in the decline age for a catcher, but he's still above average. the sox have a very nice bench, highlighted by wily mo pena and eric hinske.
pitching
the talk is all about dice-k, but the real issue is how the back of the rotation will perform. i've always been a big wakefield fan, but his mysterious injury late last year has to raise eyebrows. more importantly, with papelbon back in the pen, julian tavarez is no answer as the #5 (i'd risk piniero there). the pen is old, and the youngsters like craig hansen are not taking over as quickly as expected.
blue jays
hitting
although the addition of frank thomas is a big improvement in the dh slot, a number of blue jays are likely to slide a bit from last year (don't expect reed johnson to repeat an OPS near .870). that said, their lineup is still pretty mean (ignoring royce clayton of course). i like the addition of matt stairs, but other than that the bench is poor.
pitching
halladay and burnett make a strong 1-2 punch, and i like the tomo ohka signing. but the back side is sketchy. shaun marcum will start in the pen, which is bad news since his PECOTA projected 4.89 era and 1.43 whip are considerably better than the gustavo chacin's 5.60/1.59. after buddy ryan, there is not much to be enamored with in the bullpen.
devil rays
hitting
the main question marks here are on the right side of the infield. i'd like to see elijah dukes get a lion's share of the pa's at 1b, but you could do worse than ty wiggninton there (remember, travis lee was a long time d-ray). jorge cantu is on the verge of losing his job to bj upton, and while PECOTA projects almost identical OPS's for those two, i'd vote for ushering in the upton era in tampa.
pitching
it was easy to overlook the solid 21 starts jamie shields put up in 2006, but we'll see a lot more of him in 2007. PECOTA does not care much for jae seo, casey fossum or former prospect edwin jackson, but i think seo can still become a solid middle of the rotation arm, and jeff niemann should give the back of the rotation some support come the midseason. the bullpen is an absolute disaster.
orioles
hitting
with not one player in the lineup projected to crack an OBP of .360 or OPS of .850 , scoring will be a struggle in baltimore. tejada and markakis are the best bets to carry the offense, and sadly, there is not much help in the high minor leagues. let's just move on.
pitching
the loss of kris benson is disappointing, but probably wouldn't have kept the o's out of the cellar anyway. baltimore will enjoy watching the progression of erik bedard, adam loewen and daniel cabrera, but those 3+ hour steve traschel outings? not so much. at least they bolstered their bullpen with solid but super expensive veterans.
predictions:
yanks
bosox
bj's
d-rays
o's
yanks
hitting
new york has the best offense in the majors, even with doug minky taking ab's that should go to josh phelps. i question the decision to go with wil nieves as jorge's backup, especially with mike rivera recently clearing waivers in milwaukee. but really, that's just nitpicking.
pitching
with possible injuries to pettite, wang and 5th starter jeff karstens, the randy johnson trade is looking worse and worse. naming carl pavano as the opening day starter is not inspiring confidence in the bronx. it's looking more and more like phillip hughes won't be in scranton (no more columbus, folks) very long. the bullpen is as strong as it's been in a few years.
bosox
hitting
any lineup anchored with manny and papi is sure to score runs but boston does have a number of question marks in the lineup. namely, will varitek and crisp bounce back, and will dustin pedroia be able to produce as full time players? as a yanks fan, i have to say, unfortunately, yes to those questions. sure varitek is in the decline age for a catcher, but he's still above average. the sox have a very nice bench, highlighted by wily mo pena and eric hinske.
pitching
the talk is all about dice-k, but the real issue is how the back of the rotation will perform. i've always been a big wakefield fan, but his mysterious injury late last year has to raise eyebrows. more importantly, with papelbon back in the pen, julian tavarez is no answer as the #5 (i'd risk piniero there). the pen is old, and the youngsters like craig hansen are not taking over as quickly as expected.
blue jays
hitting
although the addition of frank thomas is a big improvement in the dh slot, a number of blue jays are likely to slide a bit from last year (don't expect reed johnson to repeat an OPS near .870). that said, their lineup is still pretty mean (ignoring royce clayton of course). i like the addition of matt stairs, but other than that the bench is poor.
pitching
halladay and burnett make a strong 1-2 punch, and i like the tomo ohka signing. but the back side is sketchy. shaun marcum will start in the pen, which is bad news since his PECOTA projected 4.89 era and 1.43 whip are considerably better than the gustavo chacin's 5.60/1.59. after buddy ryan, there is not much to be enamored with in the bullpen.
devil rays
hitting
the main question marks here are on the right side of the infield. i'd like to see elijah dukes get a lion's share of the pa's at 1b, but you could do worse than ty wiggninton there (remember, travis lee was a long time d-ray). jorge cantu is on the verge of losing his job to bj upton, and while PECOTA projects almost identical OPS's for those two, i'd vote for ushering in the upton era in tampa.
pitching
it was easy to overlook the solid 21 starts jamie shields put up in 2006, but we'll see a lot more of him in 2007. PECOTA does not care much for jae seo, casey fossum or former prospect edwin jackson, but i think seo can still become a solid middle of the rotation arm, and jeff niemann should give the back of the rotation some support come the midseason. the bullpen is an absolute disaster.
orioles
hitting
with not one player in the lineup projected to crack an OBP of .360 or OPS of .850 , scoring will be a struggle in baltimore. tejada and markakis are the best bets to carry the offense, and sadly, there is not much help in the high minor leagues. let's just move on.
pitching
the loss of kris benson is disappointing, but probably wouldn't have kept the o's out of the cellar anyway. baltimore will enjoy watching the progression of erik bedard, adam loewen and daniel cabrera, but those 3+ hour steve traschel outings? not so much. at least they bolstered their bullpen with solid but super expensive veterans.
predictions:
yanks
bosox
bj's
d-rays
o's
ok, so i've been reaaaallly lazy in keeping up with my in depth previews, so i'll try to quickly get to each division before opening day
nl central
st louis
hitting
after the pujols-edmonds-rolen core, there is a big drop off in the lineup. adam kennedy brings some stability to the keystone, but depending on chris duncan and preston wilson (with encarnacion's injury) in the corners is suspect. whenever edmonds has his first injury, the outfield will be manned with question marks. yadier molina will likely not repeat his world series feats, and will return to ausmus level offensively (PECOTA sees a .249/.306/.356 campaign).
pitching
after carpenter, wainwright and youngster anthony reyes, the cards are depending on kip wells and converted reliever braden looper (who recently threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in arizona). st louis is hoping dave duncan can work his magic with this duo, but they should at least be able to man the back of the rotation until mulder can replace one of them this summer. izzy hasn't thrown on consecutive days yet this spring, but will be a reliable closer when he can pitch. losing josh kinney hurts the pen.
houston
hitting
after berkman, lee and ensberg, this is a lineup chock full of outs: biggio, ausmus, everett. chris burke will do a nice job in cf and switch to 2b when biggio reaches the 3000 hit mark, and the stros need jason lane to keep mashing homers like he is this spring. hunter pence will bide his time in round rock until mid-summer. luke scott and mike lamb give them a nice bench. too bad they can't catch or play short.
pitching
oswalt, jennings, then pray for 3 days of rain. brad lidge leads a solid pen, but with the garbage at the back of the rotation, they could be spent by july.
cubs
hitting
chicago boasts a scary lineup (cliff floyd will likely be the 4th OF!). hopefully sweet lou will give the utility ab's to ryan theriot in lieu of ronny cedeno and keep matt murton in left as much as possible. felix pie could be taking PT from jacque jones very soon.
pitching
i question any staff with ted lilly as the #2. prior and wade miller likely won't make 30 starts combined, which means rich hill and jason marquis will be heavily depended on. which, by the way, is not good. i do like the pen, especially if mike wuertz and bobby howry are pitching the high leverage situations. keep dempster in that "3 runs up" closer role, just like detroit did last year with jones.
brewers
hittingthe graffanino/counsell platoon at third is far from ideal, but just a stop gap until ryan braun shows he can handle the throw from the hot corner (scarily, this might be never). if yost can follow through on playing corey hart (who along with rickie weeks will compete for his first 20-20 campaign) full time while platooning mench and jenkins, the outfield will be great. gabe gross rounds out a strong bench.
pitching
jeff suppan is likely their worst starter, and that's not too shabby. dave bush will put up another fine under-the-radar year, and carlos villanueva and yovani gallardo are in the wings in case of injury. the hard throwing bull pen will be aided by turnbow's relative return to form.
reds
hitting
despite giving up kearns and lopez for free last year, cincy will post on their best lineups in years. edwin encarnacion will continue to improve and david ross is an improvement over jason larue. ryan freel will be more valuable in center than juan pierre at a fraction of the cost, while griffey slides to a corner. the reds' bench took a big hit with the loss of chris denorfia to TJ surjery, and cincy will be in trouble if any regular but hatteberg (thanks to joey votto) goes down. it will be interesting to see what, if any, role josh hamilton will play.
pitching
aaron harang and brandon (er, bronson) arroyo lead the rotation, but no one in ohio can feel to good about the three-headed monster of milton, lohse, and belisle. cincy fans should be praying for homer bailey to get off to a hot start in louisville. the pen will be full of retreads like dustin hermanson and mike stanton, so depth will be an issue when the injuries start piling up.
pirates
hittingwith only a handful of above average hitters in their lineup and only 2 starters who project an OBP over .350 (bay and laroche), scoring runs may be a problem in the steel city. i like the shift of freddy sanchez to 2b, where he holds more offensive value, but the lack of power at 3b (jose bautista) and rf (xavier nady, more suited to platoon) will be an issue. ronny paulino will quietly continue his rise into the short list of good hitting NL catchers.
pitching
i admire that the bucs are sticking with the 4 homegrown youngsters (duke, snell, maholm and gorzelanny), but it's too bad not one is an ace. the 5th spot will be given to the lesser of 2 evils (armas and chacon). after damasco marte and matt capps (who should soon be the closer), the pen is hurting.
predictions:
cards
brewers
cubs
reds
astros
pirates
with the current rosters, i like milwaukee best. but i think walt jocketty will make a midseason move in st louis to push the cards over the top.
nl central
st louis
hitting
after the pujols-edmonds-rolen core, there is a big drop off in the lineup. adam kennedy brings some stability to the keystone, but depending on chris duncan and preston wilson (with encarnacion's injury) in the corners is suspect. whenever edmonds has his first injury, the outfield will be manned with question marks. yadier molina will likely not repeat his world series feats, and will return to ausmus level offensively (PECOTA sees a .249/.306/.356 campaign).
pitching
after carpenter, wainwright and youngster anthony reyes, the cards are depending on kip wells and converted reliever braden looper (who recently threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in arizona). st louis is hoping dave duncan can work his magic with this duo, but they should at least be able to man the back of the rotation until mulder can replace one of them this summer. izzy hasn't thrown on consecutive days yet this spring, but will be a reliable closer when he can pitch. losing josh kinney hurts the pen.
houston
hitting
after berkman, lee and ensberg, this is a lineup chock full of outs: biggio, ausmus, everett. chris burke will do a nice job in cf and switch to 2b when biggio reaches the 3000 hit mark, and the stros need jason lane to keep mashing homers like he is this spring. hunter pence will bide his time in round rock until mid-summer. luke scott and mike lamb give them a nice bench. too bad they can't catch or play short.
pitching
oswalt, jennings, then pray for 3 days of rain. brad lidge leads a solid pen, but with the garbage at the back of the rotation, they could be spent by july.
cubs
hitting
chicago boasts a scary lineup (cliff floyd will likely be the 4th OF!). hopefully sweet lou will give the utility ab's to ryan theriot in lieu of ronny cedeno and keep matt murton in left as much as possible. felix pie could be taking PT from jacque jones very soon.
pitching
i question any staff with ted lilly as the #2. prior and wade miller likely won't make 30 starts combined, which means rich hill and jason marquis will be heavily depended on. which, by the way, is not good. i do like the pen, especially if mike wuertz and bobby howry are pitching the high leverage situations. keep dempster in that "3 runs up" closer role, just like detroit did last year with jones.
brewers
hittingthe graffanino/counsell platoon at third is far from ideal, but just a stop gap until ryan braun shows he can handle the throw from the hot corner (scarily, this might be never). if yost can follow through on playing corey hart (who along with rickie weeks will compete for his first 20-20 campaign) full time while platooning mench and jenkins, the outfield will be great. gabe gross rounds out a strong bench.
pitching
jeff suppan is likely their worst starter, and that's not too shabby. dave bush will put up another fine under-the-radar year, and carlos villanueva and yovani gallardo are in the wings in case of injury. the hard throwing bull pen will be aided by turnbow's relative return to form.
reds
hitting
despite giving up kearns and lopez for free last year, cincy will post on their best lineups in years. edwin encarnacion will continue to improve and david ross is an improvement over jason larue. ryan freel will be more valuable in center than juan pierre at a fraction of the cost, while griffey slides to a corner. the reds' bench took a big hit with the loss of chris denorfia to TJ surjery, and cincy will be in trouble if any regular but hatteberg (thanks to joey votto) goes down. it will be interesting to see what, if any, role josh hamilton will play.
pitching
aaron harang and brandon (er, bronson) arroyo lead the rotation, but no one in ohio can feel to good about the three-headed monster of milton, lohse, and belisle. cincy fans should be praying for homer bailey to get off to a hot start in louisville. the pen will be full of retreads like dustin hermanson and mike stanton, so depth will be an issue when the injuries start piling up.
pirates
hittingwith only a handful of above average hitters in their lineup and only 2 starters who project an OBP over .350 (bay and laroche), scoring runs may be a problem in the steel city. i like the shift of freddy sanchez to 2b, where he holds more offensive value, but the lack of power at 3b (jose bautista) and rf (xavier nady, more suited to platoon) will be an issue. ronny paulino will quietly continue his rise into the short list of good hitting NL catchers.
pitching
i admire that the bucs are sticking with the 4 homegrown youngsters (duke, snell, maholm and gorzelanny), but it's too bad not one is an ace. the 5th spot will be given to the lesser of 2 evils (armas and chacon). after damasco marte and matt capps (who should soon be the closer), the pen is hurting.
predictions:
cards
brewers
cubs
reds
astros
pirates
with the current rosters, i like milwaukee best. but i think walt jocketty will make a midseason move in st louis to push the cards over the top.
Monday, March 12, 2007
nl west predictions
d-backs
dodgers
padres
rockies
giants
i think arizona is by far the head of the class here (and likely the entire national league), and it seems the trend of the nl west being very balanced is fading. both the dodgers and padres will contend for the wildcard but the lack of depth in the rotation will limit the dads to 3rd place.
d-backs
dodgers
padres
rockies
giants
i think arizona is by far the head of the class here (and likely the entire national league), and it seems the trend of the nl west being very balanced is fading. both the dodgers and padres will contend for the wildcard but the lack of depth in the rotation will limit the dads to 3rd place.
giants
expecations:
with a lineup this old, the only possible expectation is to win now.
lineup:
san francisco made no attempt to make an aging lineup any younger this winter, and actually made it older. rich aurilia is penciled in at 1b, where he'll platoon with mark sweeney. like aurlia, ray durham had a great 2006, but repeat performances are unlikely. the free swinging pedro feliz has no business being a starter, and omar vizquel's productive 2006 may be the last good year of his career. replacing mike matheny could only improve san fran's offense, but benjie molina is an average catcher at best. the outfield is in better shape, though also old. bonds is still a force to be reckoned with but typically requires at least 1 day off a week. randy winn should improve on his disappointing 2006 (.324 OBP, sub-.400 SLG), and while dave roberts is no moises alou, he is no worse than a slight downgrade from the the alou/steve finley combo the giants used last year.
grade: C-
bench:
such an old team depends heavily on their bench, especially with bonds in LF. the backup OF's will be an assortment of fred lewis, jason ellison, todd linden, and dan ortmeier, of which i prefer linden and lewis. mark sweeney provides extra back up in the OF when not platooning at 1b. kevin fransden will likely be the utility IF, a role in which he should be above average assuming he can handle SS on occasion, with aurilia providing depth at 3b and 2b as well. my real concern is that the bench players will suffer from overexposure due such an old group of starters.
grade: B+
rotation:
despite spending all that cash on barry zito, matt cain is the giant's ace. matt morris and noah lowry make up the middle of the rotation, and while morris is (somewhat) a shell of his former self, he is still a solid middle of the rotation guy. lowry’s a flyball pitcher who depends on a low BABIP, but you could do worse for a #4. hopefully jonathan sanchez takes the #5 spot, since russ ortiz is not any type of solution (obviously depth is a problem here too). whoever wins the last spot will be no more than a placeholder for 2006 first rounder tim lincecum anyway, who giants fans may be clamoring for as soon as this summer.
grade: B-
bullpen:
armando benitez will enter the season as the closer, but I don’t see him lasting. his k rates have been declining for years now, and he remains a big flyball pitcher (33% GB rate for last 3 seasons). no one else is really ready to step in that role, though if billy sadler or brian wilson can maintain some semblance of control either might take over. all those years of overusage are catching up to steve kline (from 98-03, he only had one season with under 78 app’s). kevin correia may be their most dependable reliever. shockingly, the giants have no real NRI’s of note fighting for bullpen spots.
grade: D
expecations:
with a lineup this old, the only possible expectation is to win now.
lineup:
san francisco made no attempt to make an aging lineup any younger this winter, and actually made it older. rich aurilia is penciled in at 1b, where he'll platoon with mark sweeney. like aurlia, ray durham had a great 2006, but repeat performances are unlikely. the free swinging pedro feliz has no business being a starter, and omar vizquel's productive 2006 may be the last good year of his career. replacing mike matheny could only improve san fran's offense, but benjie molina is an average catcher at best. the outfield is in better shape, though also old. bonds is still a force to be reckoned with but typically requires at least 1 day off a week. randy winn should improve on his disappointing 2006 (.324 OBP, sub-.400 SLG), and while dave roberts is no moises alou, he is no worse than a slight downgrade from the the alou/steve finley combo the giants used last year.
grade: C-
bench:
such an old team depends heavily on their bench, especially with bonds in LF. the backup OF's will be an assortment of fred lewis, jason ellison, todd linden, and dan ortmeier, of which i prefer linden and lewis. mark sweeney provides extra back up in the OF when not platooning at 1b. kevin fransden will likely be the utility IF, a role in which he should be above average assuming he can handle SS on occasion, with aurilia providing depth at 3b and 2b as well. my real concern is that the bench players will suffer from overexposure due such an old group of starters.
grade: B+
rotation:
despite spending all that cash on barry zito, matt cain is the giant's ace. matt morris and noah lowry make up the middle of the rotation, and while morris is (somewhat) a shell of his former self, he is still a solid middle of the rotation guy. lowry’s a flyball pitcher who depends on a low BABIP, but you could do worse for a #4. hopefully jonathan sanchez takes the #5 spot, since russ ortiz is not any type of solution (obviously depth is a problem here too). whoever wins the last spot will be no more than a placeholder for 2006 first rounder tim lincecum anyway, who giants fans may be clamoring for as soon as this summer.
grade: B-
bullpen:
armando benitez will enter the season as the closer, but I don’t see him lasting. his k rates have been declining for years now, and he remains a big flyball pitcher (33% GB rate for last 3 seasons). no one else is really ready to step in that role, though if billy sadler or brian wilson can maintain some semblance of control either might take over. all those years of overusage are catching up to steve kline (from 98-03, he only had one season with under 78 app’s). kevin correia may be their most dependable reliever. shockingly, the giants have no real NRI’s of note fighting for bullpen spots.
grade: D
Friday, March 09, 2007
padres
expectations:
win the nl west (geez that’s getting old)
lineup:
san diego’s infield appears solid but is chock full of question marks. will adrian gonzalez build on last season’s breakout, or revert to prospect bust status? will joining his brother end marcus giles slide? will khalil greene show any signs of reverting to the form he showed as a rook? will kevin kouzmanoff’s be able to handle more or less skipping AAA (only 115 career PA’s there)? i’m inclined to think the answers will favor gonzalez, greene and kouzmanoff, but not giles (who will still likely be at least an average 2b-man). brian giles will likely slug over .400 (something he somehow didn’t do in 2006) and continue to reach base like mad, and mike cameron is an above average CF. it seems termel sledge will get his chance to start in LF, and while he likely won’t exceed dave roberts’ 2006, he has a good chance to outplay dave roberts in 2007 (meaning letting roberts go was fine). josh bard enters the year as the starter (a new role for him), and after posting an OPS over .900 in ~250 AB’s last year he’s their best option.
grade: B+
bench:
i really like the insurance russell branyan can provide at both IF corners, and he can even play a little OF as well. geoff blum is the utlity IF, but he basically takes AB’s from todd walker. the fact that san diego will likely keep all three of these guys means there’s probably only room for one extra OF. the spot should really go to either paul mcanulty or jack cust, but in the end may go to jose cruz jr (better defender). cutting or trading todd walker would give them some flexibility, but I don’t see it happening (at least not yet). while we’re on the subject, not trading cust to the AL where he can DH is also pretty dumb – a guy who’s put up an OBP over .430 in his last two AAA seasons (not to mention 49 homers) probably should get a shot at a big league job regardless of his defensive woes. Lastly, you could do worse than rob bowen as your backup catcher.
grade: B- (B+ if cruz doesn’t take the last spot)
rotation:
jake peavy, chris young and greg maddux provide a great front end of the rotation. clay hensley (who quietly put up a nice 2006 – 3.71 era, 1.34 whip in 29 starts) and david wells (44 now, and only made 13 starts in 2006) make for a decent back end, but depth will be a huge problem. NRI shawn estes may be one of their first replacements – so two injuries here and san diego will be in big trouble.
grade: B
bullpen:
the dads are very strong in the reliever department, with trevor hoffman leading a corp that includes scott linebrink (who was possibly involved in the most ever trade rumors for a middle reliever), former bosox farmhand cla meredith (think the sox are regretting that mirabelli for bard and meredith move just a bit?), and scott cassidy. an assortment of vets will round out the pen. the only big concern here is that the following (numbers for 2006):
p, % of starts into the 7th inning
peavy, 56%
young, 42%
maddux, 44%
hensley, 41%
wells, 39%
will lead to the relievers being overworked by late summer.*
grade: B+
*i admit i don’t know the league average here, which would be very useful. my thinking is that wells and maddux are somewhat notorious for being yanked early even when pitching well, and i though i read the same about young. so if figured i'd toss the figures in.
expectations:
win the nl west (geez that’s getting old)
lineup:
san diego’s infield appears solid but is chock full of question marks. will adrian gonzalez build on last season’s breakout, or revert to prospect bust status? will joining his brother end marcus giles slide? will khalil greene show any signs of reverting to the form he showed as a rook? will kevin kouzmanoff’s be able to handle more or less skipping AAA (only 115 career PA’s there)? i’m inclined to think the answers will favor gonzalez, greene and kouzmanoff, but not giles (who will still likely be at least an average 2b-man). brian giles will likely slug over .400 (something he somehow didn’t do in 2006) and continue to reach base like mad, and mike cameron is an above average CF. it seems termel sledge will get his chance to start in LF, and while he likely won’t exceed dave roberts’ 2006, he has a good chance to outplay dave roberts in 2007 (meaning letting roberts go was fine). josh bard enters the year as the starter (a new role for him), and after posting an OPS over .900 in ~250 AB’s last year he’s their best option.
grade: B+
bench:
i really like the insurance russell branyan can provide at both IF corners, and he can even play a little OF as well. geoff blum is the utlity IF, but he basically takes AB’s from todd walker. the fact that san diego will likely keep all three of these guys means there’s probably only room for one extra OF. the spot should really go to either paul mcanulty or jack cust, but in the end may go to jose cruz jr (better defender). cutting or trading todd walker would give them some flexibility, but I don’t see it happening (at least not yet). while we’re on the subject, not trading cust to the AL where he can DH is also pretty dumb – a guy who’s put up an OBP over .430 in his last two AAA seasons (not to mention 49 homers) probably should get a shot at a big league job regardless of his defensive woes. Lastly, you could do worse than rob bowen as your backup catcher.
grade: B- (B+ if cruz doesn’t take the last spot)
rotation:
jake peavy, chris young and greg maddux provide a great front end of the rotation. clay hensley (who quietly put up a nice 2006 – 3.71 era, 1.34 whip in 29 starts) and david wells (44 now, and only made 13 starts in 2006) make for a decent back end, but depth will be a huge problem. NRI shawn estes may be one of their first replacements – so two injuries here and san diego will be in big trouble.
grade: B
bullpen:
the dads are very strong in the reliever department, with trevor hoffman leading a corp that includes scott linebrink (who was possibly involved in the most ever trade rumors for a middle reliever), former bosox farmhand cla meredith (think the sox are regretting that mirabelli for bard and meredith move just a bit?), and scott cassidy. an assortment of vets will round out the pen. the only big concern here is that the following (numbers for 2006):
p, % of starts into the 7th inning
peavy, 56%
young, 42%
maddux, 44%
hensley, 41%
wells, 39%
will lead to the relievers being overworked by late summer.*
grade: B+
*i admit i don’t know the league average here, which would be very useful. my thinking is that wells and maddux are somewhat notorious for being yanked early even when pitching well, and i though i read the same about young. so if figured i'd toss the figures in.
Thursday, March 08, 2007
dodgers
expecations:
win the nl west (are we sensing a trend here yet?)
lineup:
in wilson betemit, rafael furcal, jeff kent and nomar, los angeles has a nice offensive infield . the issue here is that the right side is aging and injury prone, and betemit, better suited as a SS or 2b, may not bring the pop desired from the hot corner. this winter, to atone for losing jd drew and kenny lofton, the dodgers brought in veterans luis gonzalez and juan pierre. neither replacement will be as good as what was lost, and worse, it's likely neither should play over youngsters (or at least young-ers) matt kemp and jason repko. i would be keen on an outfield of andre ethier, repko, and kemp, but ethier, pierre and gonzo is likely below average. there is great news behind the plate, in that russell martin is well above average both offensively and defensively. so much so, in fact, that the dodgers were willing to give away dionner navarro last year.
grade: B-
GM grade: F- (after thinking about that navarro AND jae seo trade for mark hendrickson, and the offseason OF signings, i couldn't let this go)
NRI of note: fernando tatis - could he give betemit a run for his money at third?
bench:
as mentioned above, their extra OF's should be starting, and mike lieberthal is a great pickup to give martin a breather. ramon martinez gives you some flexibility in the IF, and he won't completely kill you at the plate (projected .240 EQA). the last spot will likely go to marlon anderson, who probably deserves it after his amazing september (1.246 OPS!! as a near full time player). anderson does give them flexibility in the field as well (he can play ~6 positions), but his spot means james loney will likely start the year in AAA. it is possible repko is the one who misses out, and james loney takes the final roster spot. while this would make the bench even stronger, i think the dodgers will prefer to give loney a full time job in AAA until nomar goes down with his 1st injury.
grade: A+
rotation:
adding jason schmidt was great, especially in lieu of losing greg maddux. derek lowe and brad penny give LA a great 1-2-3, but my concern here is that in any given year schmidt and/or penny can miss more than a handful of starts. chad billingsley, randy wolf, and the wild hong-chih kuo will battle for the last 2 spots in the rotation. whoever loses out will join brett tomko and mark hendrickson as the first option for when schmidt/penny go down, so they do have some depth here.
grade: B+
bullpen:
takashi saito will continue as the closer with the loss of eric gagne, with jon broxton (huge upside, closer to be) and joe beimel likely to set up. since their roster contains so many starters, it seems the remainder of the pen will be filled by spot starters or NRI's. i'd like to see 22-year old jonathan meloan (k and gb machine) make the big club.
grade: B-
expecations:
win the nl west (are we sensing a trend here yet?)
lineup:
in wilson betemit, rafael furcal, jeff kent and nomar, los angeles has a nice offensive infield . the issue here is that the right side is aging and injury prone, and betemit, better suited as a SS or 2b, may not bring the pop desired from the hot corner. this winter, to atone for losing jd drew and kenny lofton, the dodgers brought in veterans luis gonzalez and juan pierre. neither replacement will be as good as what was lost, and worse, it's likely neither should play over youngsters (or at least young-ers) matt kemp and jason repko. i would be keen on an outfield of andre ethier, repko, and kemp, but ethier, pierre and gonzo is likely below average. there is great news behind the plate, in that russell martin is well above average both offensively and defensively. so much so, in fact, that the dodgers were willing to give away dionner navarro last year.
grade: B-
GM grade: F- (after thinking about that navarro AND jae seo trade for mark hendrickson, and the offseason OF signings, i couldn't let this go)
NRI of note: fernando tatis - could he give betemit a run for his money at third?
bench:
as mentioned above, their extra OF's should be starting, and mike lieberthal is a great pickup to give martin a breather. ramon martinez gives you some flexibility in the IF, and he won't completely kill you at the plate (projected .240 EQA). the last spot will likely go to marlon anderson, who probably deserves it after his amazing september (1.246 OPS!! as a near full time player). anderson does give them flexibility in the field as well (he can play ~6 positions), but his spot means james loney will likely start the year in AAA. it is possible repko is the one who misses out, and james loney takes the final roster spot. while this would make the bench even stronger, i think the dodgers will prefer to give loney a full time job in AAA until nomar goes down with his 1st injury.
grade: A+
rotation:
adding jason schmidt was great, especially in lieu of losing greg maddux. derek lowe and brad penny give LA a great 1-2-3, but my concern here is that in any given year schmidt and/or penny can miss more than a handful of starts. chad billingsley, randy wolf, and the wild hong-chih kuo will battle for the last 2 spots in the rotation. whoever loses out will join brett tomko and mark hendrickson as the first option for when schmidt/penny go down, so they do have some depth here.
grade: B+
bullpen:
takashi saito will continue as the closer with the loss of eric gagne, with jon broxton (huge upside, closer to be) and joe beimel likely to set up. since their roster contains so many starters, it seems the remainder of the pen will be filled by spot starters or NRI's. i'd like to see 22-year old jonathan meloan (k and gb machine) make the big club.
grade: B-
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
rockies
expectations:
compete for the postseason while rebuilding. no small task.
lineup:
in todd helton, garrett atkins, matt holiday and brad hawpe, the rockies have one of the best middles of the order in the national league. i could nitpick and say that they should shift those four guys from 3-4-5-6 in the order to 2-3-4-5 to compensate for helton's declining power, but the real issue with colorado's offense is the other 4 spots in the order. last year, the bulk of those PA's went to jamey carroll and cory sullivan at the top of the order, with a yorvit torrealba/danny ardoin combo and clint barmes at the bottom. carroll had a career year, posting a .377 obp in almost 500 AB's on his way to a 6.6 win year (helped significantly by a phenomenal season with the leather), but a repeat performance seems unlikely and he is best suited in a utility role. sullivan shouldn't be more than a 4th OF, and his .321 should've certainly lost him his leadoff spot. sullivan, though, looks like ty cobb compared to the production colorado got out of the 7-8 spots in the order. none of the torrealba/ardoin/barmes trio saw an OBP over .300, and barmes spent over 500 PA's slugging under .340. the good news? colorado should see rampant improvement in 3 of these 4 lineup spots: troy tulowitzki at SS (i don't see as great things as most are predicting, but will be a huge upgrade over barmes), chris iannetta behind the plate (who brings above average patience and power for a catcher), and wily taveras in CF (who still shouldn't hit leadoff, but is a better defender and has much more speed than sullivan). as for 2b, the rockies seem inclined to hand the job to kaz matsui. perhaps he can build on the great august/september he had for them, but i would be surprised by even a .750 OPS at this point for him.
grade: B+
bench:
as i mentioned, i like carroll as a utility guy, and torrealba is an above average back up catcher. i really don't like the steve finley signing, since it likely bumps jeff baker (by far the best hitter of the OF's competing for the last spot) back to colorado springs. i would like to see baker and jeff salazar take the reserve OF spots, but i get the impression those roles will be filled by finley and sullivan. barmes will likely take the last IF spot based on seniority, but giving that job to omar quintanilla (LHB) would better balance the bench.
grade: B- (B+ if baker makes the club)
rotation:
trading jason jennings was a great move this winter, as they got 2 major league ready starters in return (jason hirsch and taylor bucholz). neither may be as good as jennings (though hirsch has the potential to be), but the trade filled out a thin staff. the one problem here is that neither jeff francis nor aaron cook are aces. so once you throw in byun kim, what you get is a bunch of middle-to-back end of the rotation starters. this is not the worst problem to have, but it will keep colorado from making a playoff run. one thing to note is that rodrigo lopez, who the orioles basically gave away, is penciled in ahead of hirsch. this is bad news.
grade: C
bullpen:
after the hard throwing lefty brian fuentes, this pen is full of retreads: tom martin, latroy hawkins, jeremy affeldt (throw in NRI's dave veres, pitching with an artificial left hip (!!), mike gallo, and danny graves). whatever pieces are put together to assemble a corp of middle relievers will be wasting fuentes, since clint hurdle refuses to use his significantly better reliever in any but save situations. i at least hope they give semi-prospect ubaldo jimenez a shot at middle relief duty.
grade: D
expectations:
compete for the postseason while rebuilding. no small task.
lineup:
in todd helton, garrett atkins, matt holiday and brad hawpe, the rockies have one of the best middles of the order in the national league. i could nitpick and say that they should shift those four guys from 3-4-5-6 in the order to 2-3-4-5 to compensate for helton's declining power, but the real issue with colorado's offense is the other 4 spots in the order. last year, the bulk of those PA's went to jamey carroll and cory sullivan at the top of the order, with a yorvit torrealba/danny ardoin combo and clint barmes at the bottom. carroll had a career year, posting a .377 obp in almost 500 AB's on his way to a 6.6 win year (helped significantly by a phenomenal season with the leather), but a repeat performance seems unlikely and he is best suited in a utility role. sullivan shouldn't be more than a 4th OF, and his .321 should've certainly lost him his leadoff spot. sullivan, though, looks like ty cobb compared to the production colorado got out of the 7-8 spots in the order. none of the torrealba/ardoin/barmes trio saw an OBP over .300, and barmes spent over 500 PA's slugging under .340. the good news? colorado should see rampant improvement in 3 of these 4 lineup spots: troy tulowitzki at SS (i don't see as great things as most are predicting, but will be a huge upgrade over barmes), chris iannetta behind the plate (who brings above average patience and power for a catcher), and wily taveras in CF (who still shouldn't hit leadoff, but is a better defender and has much more speed than sullivan). as for 2b, the rockies seem inclined to hand the job to kaz matsui. perhaps he can build on the great august/september he had for them, but i would be surprised by even a .750 OPS at this point for him.
grade: B+
bench:
as i mentioned, i like carroll as a utility guy, and torrealba is an above average back up catcher. i really don't like the steve finley signing, since it likely bumps jeff baker (by far the best hitter of the OF's competing for the last spot) back to colorado springs. i would like to see baker and jeff salazar take the reserve OF spots, but i get the impression those roles will be filled by finley and sullivan. barmes will likely take the last IF spot based on seniority, but giving that job to omar quintanilla (LHB) would better balance the bench.
grade: B- (B+ if baker makes the club)
rotation:
trading jason jennings was a great move this winter, as they got 2 major league ready starters in return (jason hirsch and taylor bucholz). neither may be as good as jennings (though hirsch has the potential to be), but the trade filled out a thin staff. the one problem here is that neither jeff francis nor aaron cook are aces. so once you throw in byun kim, what you get is a bunch of middle-to-back end of the rotation starters. this is not the worst problem to have, but it will keep colorado from making a playoff run. one thing to note is that rodrigo lopez, who the orioles basically gave away, is penciled in ahead of hirsch. this is bad news.
grade: C
bullpen:
after the hard throwing lefty brian fuentes, this pen is full of retreads: tom martin, latroy hawkins, jeremy affeldt (throw in NRI's dave veres, pitching with an artificial left hip (!!), mike gallo, and danny graves). whatever pieces are put together to assemble a corp of middle relievers will be wasting fuentes, since clint hurdle refuses to use his significantly better reliever in any but save situations. i at least hope they give semi-prospect ubaldo jimenez a shot at middle relief duty.
grade: D
i'm skipping the nl central for now, and thus we're on to the national league west!
d-backs
expectations:
win the nl west
lineup:
arizona has very quietly used it's well-stocked farm system to build a very young but talented major league offense. chris young will start in center, pushing a solid platoon of eric byrnes (.961 OPS vs lhp in 06) and jeff davanon to LF (.878 OPS vs rhp). carlos quentin (RF) and stephen drew (SS) should have no problem holding down the jobs they earned down the stretch last year, and both will be improvements over the d-backs respective opening day starters in 2006 (shawn green, craig counsell). expect conor jackson to improve on his .441 SLG while remaining around .375 in the OBP department. chad tracy and orlando hudson are very solid veterans at this point, and it's only a matter of time before miguel montero takes chris snyder's job behind the dish.
grade: A
bench:
alberto callaspo and mark reynolds are both young, above average utility guys. i just hope arizona has enough sense to take them both over guys like augie ojeda and tony clark (though i can easily see reynolds starting the year in AAA). clark should be expendable by making scott hairston the 5th OF, and giving him time as jackson's backup. all hairston has ever done is rake in the minors, but like jack cust, can't seem to get a major league opportunity. i fear the d-backs will take the speedy dave krynzel over hairston for the final OF spot, but am hoping hairston's 2 spring training homers have them seeing the light.
grade: A, depending on who actually makes the big club
rotation:
as i detailed a few months back, the randy johnson trade helped an already solid staff quite a bit. the unit will follow perenial all-star brandon webb in the rotation, and will be followed by doug davis, livan hernandez and one of the unrelated gonzalez's (edgar or enrique). though i prefer edgar, the d-backs seem to lean towards enrique. and if both fail there is always dana eveland (acquired with davis in the estrada trade), dustin nippert, etc, so depth is not a problem here.
grade: B+
bullpen:
i'm a big fan of this hard throwing corp of relievers, led by closer jorge julio (11.1 k/9 with arizona last year). juan cruz (8.4 k/9) and jose valverde (12.6 k/9) also miss a lot of bats, but come with some degree of uncertainty. brandon medders will provide less heat but more consistency to the pen.
grade: B+
d-backs
expectations:
win the nl west
lineup:
arizona has very quietly used it's well-stocked farm system to build a very young but talented major league offense. chris young will start in center, pushing a solid platoon of eric byrnes (.961 OPS vs lhp in 06) and jeff davanon to LF (.878 OPS vs rhp). carlos quentin (RF) and stephen drew (SS) should have no problem holding down the jobs they earned down the stretch last year, and both will be improvements over the d-backs respective opening day starters in 2006 (shawn green, craig counsell). expect conor jackson to improve on his .441 SLG while remaining around .375 in the OBP department. chad tracy and orlando hudson are very solid veterans at this point, and it's only a matter of time before miguel montero takes chris snyder's job behind the dish.
grade: A
bench:
alberto callaspo and mark reynolds are both young, above average utility guys. i just hope arizona has enough sense to take them both over guys like augie ojeda and tony clark (though i can easily see reynolds starting the year in AAA). clark should be expendable by making scott hairston the 5th OF, and giving him time as jackson's backup. all hairston has ever done is rake in the minors, but like jack cust, can't seem to get a major league opportunity. i fear the d-backs will take the speedy dave krynzel over hairston for the final OF spot, but am hoping hairston's 2 spring training homers have them seeing the light.
grade: A, depending on who actually makes the big club
rotation:
as i detailed a few months back, the randy johnson trade helped an already solid staff quite a bit. the unit will follow perenial all-star brandon webb in the rotation, and will be followed by doug davis, livan hernandez and one of the unrelated gonzalez's (edgar or enrique). though i prefer edgar, the d-backs seem to lean towards enrique. and if both fail there is always dana eveland (acquired with davis in the estrada trade), dustin nippert, etc, so depth is not a problem here.
grade: B+
bullpen:
i'm a big fan of this hard throwing corp of relievers, led by closer jorge julio (11.1 k/9 with arizona last year). juan cruz (8.4 k/9) and jose valverde (12.6 k/9) also miss a lot of bats, but come with some degree of uncertainty. brandon medders will provide less heat but more consistency to the pen.
grade: B+
spring training recap
the enjoyment of 2 days watching brew crew spring training games spontaneously turned things into a 3 day jaunt. we saw milwaukee take on the giants, the angels, and the chisox. here are some thoughts from a fantastic weekend in phoenix.
-getting really close to the action for such a cheap price is simply awesome. maryville park, the brewers home in arizona, is a good place to see a game, and ahren's dad is great to watch baseball (and play sheepshead and hoops) with.
-i saw laynce nix hit 2 homers last august in albuquerque after coming over in the lee/cordero trade, on his way to slugging like .700 for the nashville sounds in the final month. i'm not sure what he ate in the offseason, but he now looks like tom rathman and is roughly as wide as he is tall. his 420 foot homer out of the stadium against the angels in tempe was quite impressive, but he can't make the club until brady clark is traded.
-i came in with an open mind regarding rickie weeks' fielding ability, and left with a horrendous opinion. his range is just awful, though i suspect dale sveum (or whoever is positioning the IF's) is partially to blame for the 2 routine grounders he let through on friday in the same inning. on both plays he was playing at double play depth with 2 outs and no one on first. weeks also botched a 2 hopper on monday, and it seems his fielding woes are far from over.
-while we're on fielding, watching professional infielders (weeks aside) is just a joy. even the guys wearing numbers in the 70's make extremely difficult plays look so, so easy. i will never stop getting a kick out of this fact.
-the guys in the brewers bullpen are fucking huge. turnbow is way bigger than he looks on espn, and while he looked great in the inning we saw him throw, my turnbow moment of the weekend came when he was warming up against the angels (who have one of those dumb fields with the bullpen on the field down the line). one of his wild 95 mph sliders missed the catcher completely and, on one hop, knocked the 70 year old ball man off his chair 80 feet away. the other guys in the pen couldn't suppress their laughter, even as the trainer was checking out the retiree on the ground.
-vinny rottino is a guy ahren and i were pulling for big time, as we are obviously partial to former D-3 players. ned yost played him full time for the whole weekend, and while he gives milwaukee some flexibility in the IF/C department, his 1-13 showing in our presence was disappointing. i hope he can turn things around.
-the announcers did a terrible job of informing fans of relievers and subs, but with no scorecard this made for a fun little game of guessing the relievers. my two biggest hits were grant balfour and nick adenhart.
-casey kotchman and jj hardy - i'm back on their respective bandwagons. both looked great (kotchman took capuano deep on saturday, and hit 2 other line drives), and maybe it was just the injuries that had them underperforming the last 2 years after all.
-matt morris looked atrocious. his fastball likely didn't touch 90, he was wild, and couldn't even make it 2 innings on friday. giants fans beware.
-even in spring training ozze guillen has his guys bunting in the top of the 1st. baserunning across all three games was horrendous.
-man do i miss BW3's. between the wings/beer, the huge tv's, the touch screen games, and the trivia, that place is most likely my favorite restaurant. they don't exist in new mexico for some reason, and i even looked in to opening one here. they require $2 mil in liquid asset though, and shockingly i just come up a wee bit short.
- i've been to spring training before (tampa yankees baby!), but only for one day. i highly recommend heading to phoenix for a weekend - or perhaps even the entire month of march.
the enjoyment of 2 days watching brew crew spring training games spontaneously turned things into a 3 day jaunt. we saw milwaukee take on the giants, the angels, and the chisox. here are some thoughts from a fantastic weekend in phoenix.
-getting really close to the action for such a cheap price is simply awesome. maryville park, the brewers home in arizona, is a good place to see a game, and ahren's dad is great to watch baseball (and play sheepshead and hoops) with.
-i saw laynce nix hit 2 homers last august in albuquerque after coming over in the lee/cordero trade, on his way to slugging like .700 for the nashville sounds in the final month. i'm not sure what he ate in the offseason, but he now looks like tom rathman and is roughly as wide as he is tall. his 420 foot homer out of the stadium against the angels in tempe was quite impressive, but he can't make the club until brady clark is traded.
-i came in with an open mind regarding rickie weeks' fielding ability, and left with a horrendous opinion. his range is just awful, though i suspect dale sveum (or whoever is positioning the IF's) is partially to blame for the 2 routine grounders he let through on friday in the same inning. on both plays he was playing at double play depth with 2 outs and no one on first. weeks also botched a 2 hopper on monday, and it seems his fielding woes are far from over.
-while we're on fielding, watching professional infielders (weeks aside) is just a joy. even the guys wearing numbers in the 70's make extremely difficult plays look so, so easy. i will never stop getting a kick out of this fact.
-the guys in the brewers bullpen are fucking huge. turnbow is way bigger than he looks on espn, and while he looked great in the inning we saw him throw, my turnbow moment of the weekend came when he was warming up against the angels (who have one of those dumb fields with the bullpen on the field down the line). one of his wild 95 mph sliders missed the catcher completely and, on one hop, knocked the 70 year old ball man off his chair 80 feet away. the other guys in the pen couldn't suppress their laughter, even as the trainer was checking out the retiree on the ground.
-vinny rottino is a guy ahren and i were pulling for big time, as we are obviously partial to former D-3 players. ned yost played him full time for the whole weekend, and while he gives milwaukee some flexibility in the IF/C department, his 1-13 showing in our presence was disappointing. i hope he can turn things around.
-the announcers did a terrible job of informing fans of relievers and subs, but with no scorecard this made for a fun little game of guessing the relievers. my two biggest hits were grant balfour and nick adenhart.
-casey kotchman and jj hardy - i'm back on their respective bandwagons. both looked great (kotchman took capuano deep on saturday, and hit 2 other line drives), and maybe it was just the injuries that had them underperforming the last 2 years after all.
-matt morris looked atrocious. his fastball likely didn't touch 90, he was wild, and couldn't even make it 2 innings on friday. giants fans beware.
-even in spring training ozze guillen has his guys bunting in the top of the 1st. baserunning across all three games was horrendous.
-man do i miss BW3's. between the wings/beer, the huge tv's, the touch screen games, and the trivia, that place is most likely my favorite restaurant. they don't exist in new mexico for some reason, and i even looked in to opening one here. they require $2 mil in liquid asset though, and shockingly i just come up a wee bit short.
- i've been to spring training before (tampa yankees baby!), but only for one day. i highly recommend heading to phoenix for a weekend - or perhaps even the entire month of march.
Friday, March 02, 2007
nl east predictions
so that does it folks. the nl east is wrapped up. here's how i see it panning out:
phillies
mets
braves
marlins
nats
i wouldn't be surprised if the mets make a move to get some starting pitching and overtake the phils, but until that happens philadelphia's rotation is just too strong for me to knock them down a peg.
next week we'll move on to the NL central (ahren has been doing some work on this division already). the two of us are off to tempe for some spring training action this weekend, and hopefully i'll come back with some interesting findings (like where to get pizza at 3am in scottsdale).
for you MIT guys, we're meeting up with zoomer while we're there. i'll relay the scoop on how his days with the cubs ended when we get back.
so that does it folks. the nl east is wrapped up. here's how i see it panning out:
phillies
mets
braves
marlins
nats
i wouldn't be surprised if the mets make a move to get some starting pitching and overtake the phils, but until that happens philadelphia's rotation is just too strong for me to knock them down a peg.
next week we'll move on to the NL central (ahren has been doing some work on this division already). the two of us are off to tempe for some spring training action this weekend, and hopefully i'll come back with some interesting findings (like where to get pizza at 3am in scottsdale).
for you MIT guys, we're meeting up with zoomer while we're there. i'll relay the scoop on how his days with the cubs ended when we get back.
nationals
expectations:
none. and that might even be too high.
lineup:
the nats have 3 true highlights in their lineup (ryan zimmerman, austin kearns, and nick johnson), one of which (johnson) will yet again be missing an undisclosed amount of time. instead of giving kory casto some AB’s at 1b, they went out and signed dmitri young and tony batista to (i guess) platoon there while johnson recovers. really, this is the third best option, since the nats have no chance at competing for anything but last place, and even larry broadway (.353 OBP, .455 SLG in AAA last year, good glove, great name) is a better choice than playing a combo of those two retreads. then we have the debacle at ss, where the health and contract of christian guzman means he and his projected .284 OBP will play. felipe lopez’s glove at short probably requires a shift somewhere anyway, and he’ll be above average offensively for the keystone (a move to center is not out of the question). i like ryan church in LF, but washington management seems hesitant to give him a full time job (possibly because of his supposed poor attitude). giving former prospect alex escobar the job in center, especially after his .969 OPS showing in 100 PA’s last year, is a good idea too, since nook logan has no business on a major league roster let alone having a starting job. brian schneider won’t provide much offensively, but while brad ausmus still has a job i guess schneider will too.
Grade: C
bench:
it’s only a matter of time before chris snelling is in the lineup full time, shifting church to center or the bench, but this assumes he can stay healthy for more than 3 ½ hours at a time. mike restovich should definitely be the 5th OF, but big league managers love speedy guys like logan. and speaking of wasting roster spots on speed, tony womack was invited to camp (always a sure sign your organization is moving in the right direction)! it seems at least one of joe thurston, d’angelo jimenez, jose macias and womack (all NRI’s) will grab a utility IF spot, joining the useless bernie castro and whatever back up catcher makes the club (brandon harper?) on the bench.
grade: A for OF, F for IF = C overall
rotation:
this is really hard to even think about. the nats have john patterson, who made 8 starts last year and is about as durable as a martini glass, and, um, NO ONE ELSE. Whatever names they have penciled in now means nothing. 80% of the rotation spots will be up for grabs in spring training, and tim redding is a front runner to grab one. yikes.
grade: F
bullpen:
after chad cordero and the solid luis ayala, the pen is also a bit of a mystery. i think it will include the likes of former red sock jermaine van buren, former mariner emiliano fruto, and former minor league veteran micah bowie. either way, this bullpen is going to be full of bandaids.
grade: C-
expectations:
none. and that might even be too high.
lineup:
the nats have 3 true highlights in their lineup (ryan zimmerman, austin kearns, and nick johnson), one of which (johnson) will yet again be missing an undisclosed amount of time. instead of giving kory casto some AB’s at 1b, they went out and signed dmitri young and tony batista to (i guess) platoon there while johnson recovers. really, this is the third best option, since the nats have no chance at competing for anything but last place, and even larry broadway (.353 OBP, .455 SLG in AAA last year, good glove, great name) is a better choice than playing a combo of those two retreads. then we have the debacle at ss, where the health and contract of christian guzman means he and his projected .284 OBP will play. felipe lopez’s glove at short probably requires a shift somewhere anyway, and he’ll be above average offensively for the keystone (a move to center is not out of the question). i like ryan church in LF, but washington management seems hesitant to give him a full time job (possibly because of his supposed poor attitude). giving former prospect alex escobar the job in center, especially after his .969 OPS showing in 100 PA’s last year, is a good idea too, since nook logan has no business on a major league roster let alone having a starting job. brian schneider won’t provide much offensively, but while brad ausmus still has a job i guess schneider will too.
Grade: C
bench:
it’s only a matter of time before chris snelling is in the lineup full time, shifting church to center or the bench, but this assumes he can stay healthy for more than 3 ½ hours at a time. mike restovich should definitely be the 5th OF, but big league managers love speedy guys like logan. and speaking of wasting roster spots on speed, tony womack was invited to camp (always a sure sign your organization is moving in the right direction)! it seems at least one of joe thurston, d’angelo jimenez, jose macias and womack (all NRI’s) will grab a utility IF spot, joining the useless bernie castro and whatever back up catcher makes the club (brandon harper?) on the bench.
grade: A for OF, F for IF = C overall
rotation:
this is really hard to even think about. the nats have john patterson, who made 8 starts last year and is about as durable as a martini glass, and, um, NO ONE ELSE. Whatever names they have penciled in now means nothing. 80% of the rotation spots will be up for grabs in spring training, and tim redding is a front runner to grab one. yikes.
grade: F
bullpen:
after chad cordero and the solid luis ayala, the pen is also a bit of a mystery. i think it will include the likes of former red sock jermaine van buren, former mariner emiliano fruto, and former minor league veteran micah bowie. either way, this bullpen is going to be full of bandaids.
grade: C-
ouch
no word yet on what repercussions i'll face when the new mexico desperados find out that's how i hurt my shoulder...
no word yet on what repercussions i'll face when the new mexico desperados find out that's how i hurt my shoulder...
Thursday, March 01, 2007
marlins
expectations:
to keep seeing the young guys improve.
lineup:
the fish boast a very strong offensive infield, and it seems their overall performance will be consistent with last year’s. hanley ramirez and miguel cabrera make up a tremendous left side, and where i expect dan uggla to slip a bit (2006 seems like a bit of anamoly in his career) i see mike jacobs making a bit of an improvement (look for more than 20 homers). josh willingham is very nice hitter, and jeremy hermida can’t possibly be as bad as he was last year (injuries held him to 4 sb’s and an abysmal .368 slg). centerfield is a bit of a question mark, as neither alfredo amezaga nor eric reed are any sort of solution. my choice would be letting former chisox prospect joe borchard roam out there if his glove won’t kill you. miguel olivo’s .287 obp last year didn’t shock anyone, but his .440 slugging sure did. I really don’t think he should be a starter, but neither should matt treanor.
grade: B-
bench:
aaron boone? really? with boone, treanor, amezaga, and (here’s me puking) reggie abercrombie, the only bright spot on florida’s bench is cody ross (who projects EQA’s ~.270 for the next 5 years).
grade: F
rotation:
the strength of the marlins lies in it’s amazing quantity of quality starting pitchers. dontrelle willis, josh johnson, scott olsen, anibel sanchez, and ricky nolasco are penciled in as the starters, and with the exception of nolasco (who’s not too shabby) all are above average. and if any of them falter, the fish have guys like renyel pinto and yusmeiro petit waiting in the wings (and pitching in albuquerque baby!).
grade: A-
bullpen:
taylor tankersly will take over as the closer after an impressive jump from AA last summer. his control is a concern, but the role is his to lose. i don’t really know how to rate this pen, since it seems it will almost entirely be decided in the next few weeks. i won’t be shocked if multiple NRI’s make the club (nate field, mike koplove, and felix rodriguez all fit in this category). really, i'm clueless here.
grade: C?
expectations:
to keep seeing the young guys improve.
lineup:
the fish boast a very strong offensive infield, and it seems their overall performance will be consistent with last year’s. hanley ramirez and miguel cabrera make up a tremendous left side, and where i expect dan uggla to slip a bit (2006 seems like a bit of anamoly in his career) i see mike jacobs making a bit of an improvement (look for more than 20 homers). josh willingham is very nice hitter, and jeremy hermida can’t possibly be as bad as he was last year (injuries held him to 4 sb’s and an abysmal .368 slg). centerfield is a bit of a question mark, as neither alfredo amezaga nor eric reed are any sort of solution. my choice would be letting former chisox prospect joe borchard roam out there if his glove won’t kill you. miguel olivo’s .287 obp last year didn’t shock anyone, but his .440 slugging sure did. I really don’t think he should be a starter, but neither should matt treanor.
grade: B-
bench:
aaron boone? really? with boone, treanor, amezaga, and (here’s me puking) reggie abercrombie, the only bright spot on florida’s bench is cody ross (who projects EQA’s ~.270 for the next 5 years).
grade: F
rotation:
the strength of the marlins lies in it’s amazing quantity of quality starting pitchers. dontrelle willis, josh johnson, scott olsen, anibel sanchez, and ricky nolasco are penciled in as the starters, and with the exception of nolasco (who’s not too shabby) all are above average. and if any of them falter, the fish have guys like renyel pinto and yusmeiro petit waiting in the wings (and pitching in albuquerque baby!).
grade: A-
bullpen:
taylor tankersly will take over as the closer after an impressive jump from AA last summer. his control is a concern, but the role is his to lose. i don’t really know how to rate this pen, since it seems it will almost entirely be decided in the next few weeks. i won’t be shocked if multiple NRI’s make the club (nate field, mike koplove, and felix rodriguez all fit in this category). really, i'm clueless here.
grade: C?
bravos
expectations:
a return to the playoffs after missing last year for the first time since the 1900’s.
lineup:
the braves will open the year with a brand new right side of the infield after losing laroche and the littler giles in the offseason. i love the craig wilson signing to hedge the bet that scott thorman can hold down the job at 1b. atlanta obviously seems willing to give thorman the job, likely banking on his track record of making great strides in his second attempt at a given level. i’ve always been a fan of wilson, and a platoon at first could work (not to mention wilson gives them added depth in the OF). we won’t know who the 2b is until the team breaks camp, and i gather the atlanta brass is really missing wilson betemit here (but hey, at least they got 2 months of danys baez!). what we do know is that martin prado is not a full time player and that while kelly johnson can hit, he’ll have to prove he can play the keystone after shiting from LF. i could see this experiment at 2b failing and brent lillibridge (the “throw in” with mike gonzalez for laroche, and BP’s 2nd best shortstop prospect ) taking over some time in 2007 before shiting to short when renteria’s contract expires. you know what to expect out of the joneses, mccann is the best catcher in the NL, and renteria is solid at short offensively (though weak and overrated with the leather). both of their corner OF’s, ryan langerhans (sub-.400 SLG) and jeff francoeur (23 bb’s in 686 pa’s, good for a sub .300 OBP) dropped off in 2006 after nice rookie campaigns in ‘05, but both should improve. PECOTA sees EQA’s in the mid-.270’s for both.
grade: B+
bench:
willy aybar is a nice utility player, and should see the bulk of the time in that role (over whichever white bread is chosen as the last IF, chris woodward or pete orr). Brayan pena doesn’t field or hit well as mccann’s backup, but jarrod saltalamacchia may replace him at some point this year. matt diaz (a very nice 4th OF, though he suffers from francoeur’s aversion to free passes) and wilson round out a very nice bench.
grade: B+
rotation:
the ageless john smoltz anchors a staff that, like an aging stripper, has a decent front end but suspect backside. despite being a groundball pitcher (59% and 58% GB rates the last 2 years), tim hudson has surrendered 45 gopher balls since joining the NL and is more likely a middle of the rotation guy at this point. i like chuck james more than hudson as the #2, but extreme fly ball pitchers (only 28% GB rate last year) worry me a bit. kyle davies isn’t following through on the promise he showed 3 years ago, and depending on a guy who just threw his first curveball in 18 months (hampton) to finish out the rotation seems just silly.
grade: C+
bullpen:
atlanta re-stocked their pen this winter, adding gonzalez, rafael soriano, and tanyon sturtze. bob wickman and chad paronto round out of a corp of relievers that could get even better if joey devine can finally shake off those postseason bombs he gave up in 2005, when he was 8 weeks from leaving college.
grade: A
expectations:
a return to the playoffs after missing last year for the first time since the 1900’s.
lineup:
the braves will open the year with a brand new right side of the infield after losing laroche and the littler giles in the offseason. i love the craig wilson signing to hedge the bet that scott thorman can hold down the job at 1b. atlanta obviously seems willing to give thorman the job, likely banking on his track record of making great strides in his second attempt at a given level. i’ve always been a fan of wilson, and a platoon at first could work (not to mention wilson gives them added depth in the OF). we won’t know who the 2b is until the team breaks camp, and i gather the atlanta brass is really missing wilson betemit here (but hey, at least they got 2 months of danys baez!). what we do know is that martin prado is not a full time player and that while kelly johnson can hit, he’ll have to prove he can play the keystone after shiting from LF. i could see this experiment at 2b failing and brent lillibridge (the “throw in” with mike gonzalez for laroche, and BP’s 2nd best shortstop prospect ) taking over some time in 2007 before shiting to short when renteria’s contract expires. you know what to expect out of the joneses, mccann is the best catcher in the NL, and renteria is solid at short offensively (though weak and overrated with the leather). both of their corner OF’s, ryan langerhans (sub-.400 SLG) and jeff francoeur (23 bb’s in 686 pa’s, good for a sub .300 OBP) dropped off in 2006 after nice rookie campaigns in ‘05, but both should improve. PECOTA sees EQA’s in the mid-.270’s for both.
grade: B+
bench:
willy aybar is a nice utility player, and should see the bulk of the time in that role (over whichever white bread is chosen as the last IF, chris woodward or pete orr). Brayan pena doesn’t field or hit well as mccann’s backup, but jarrod saltalamacchia may replace him at some point this year. matt diaz (a very nice 4th OF, though he suffers from francoeur’s aversion to free passes) and wilson round out a very nice bench.
grade: B+
rotation:
the ageless john smoltz anchors a staff that, like an aging stripper, has a decent front end but suspect backside. despite being a groundball pitcher (59% and 58% GB rates the last 2 years), tim hudson has surrendered 45 gopher balls since joining the NL and is more likely a middle of the rotation guy at this point. i like chuck james more than hudson as the #2, but extreme fly ball pitchers (only 28% GB rate last year) worry me a bit. kyle davies isn’t following through on the promise he showed 3 years ago, and depending on a guy who just threw his first curveball in 18 months (hampton) to finish out the rotation seems just silly.
grade: C+
bullpen:
atlanta re-stocked their pen this winter, adding gonzalez, rafael soriano, and tanyon sturtze. bob wickman and chad paronto round out of a corp of relievers that could get even better if joey devine can finally shake off those postseason bombs he gave up in 2005, when he was 8 weeks from leaving college.
grade: A
