Tuesday, April 03, 2007
al west
a's
hitting
rarely is a team's success this dependent on a lack of injuries - oakland doesn't have one hitter in the lineup that i am confindent will get 600 pa's. losing frank thomas will severly impact things, and spring injuries to mark kotsay and dan johnson complicate matters further. keeping travis buck is interesting (albeit probably a bit too soon), and their bench is very solid. unfortunately, the likes of bobby kielty and shannon stewart are not really everyday material and will be depended upon heavily.
pitching
the rotation is just as injury prone as the lineup, but will be strong if healthy. there is depth here as well, with brad halsey and jason windsor ready (and in windsor's case, able) when the first starter goes down (which, um, already happened. see: loaiza, esteban). the bullpen, while not quite at minnesota's level, is excellent.
angels
hitting
i really can't ever get over batting orlando cabrera second, but when your team has only 1 guy projected to have an OBP over .345 (vlad, at .380) i guess it doesn't matter much. personally, i would bat kendrick second, and i can't imagine scoscia will keep him buried in the 7 hole for very long. losing juan rivera in winter ball and chone figgins in spring training hurt, but figgins injury could open the door for brandon wood if he starts the year hot in salt lake city and figgins needs more than 4-6 weeks to recover from that broken finger. i think casey kotchman (still only 24) will put up an overbay-esque campaign, which would be a huge improvement over what LA got from 1b last year. and if everyone can look past the oodles of strikeouts mike napoli will put up, his patience and power at the plate make him an above average catcher.
pitching
when weaver and colon return, the halos will be tossing ervin santana as their #5 - not too shabby. until those two return, joe saunders will be a fine solution for the last spot in the AL's finest rotation. the bullpen, per usual, will be strong (though i think they will be regretting the last 2 years of that recent scot shields extension).
rangers
hitting
there's a lot to like about the lineup in texas. finally handing the backstop job to gerald laird was a good decision, and i like the additions of catalanotto and lofton with the departure of sarge jr. blalock and wilkerson will likely rebound to league average for their respective positions. i'm not sold on the sosa project, and if it's failing i hope they don't wait too long to hand the dh job to jason botts or nelson cruz. the backup of's are more than adequate, and the utility if's won't see much time no matter who they are.
pitching
just like it is no surprise that the angels have a strong staff, the rangers' poor rotation shouldn't raise any eyebrows. i'm still not over the chris young for adam eaton trade. after millwood and padilla the rotation is a mess, with not much help in oklahoma after edison volquez (john danks was dealt for mccarthy, thomas diamond is out for the year). the bullpen will have to be deep to support the starters, and gagne will give them a major boost when he returns. maybe wes littleton will be this year's rick bauer.
seattle
hitting
while oakland is banking on staying healthy to contend, seattle is banking on hope - and lot's of it. vidro, jose guillen, jose lopez...this team is loaded with "it only"s. the fact that rey ordonez almost made the club should be some indication of the shape seattle is in.
pitching
like the lineup, the rotation is also brimming with projects. it's hard to predict what 2007 will hold for jeff weaver, horacio ramirez and miguel batista - i could see the m's catching lightning in a bottle with one of them, but that's about it. after jj putz and julio mateo, the bullpen is gross.
predictions:
angels
rangers
a's
mariners
a's
hitting
rarely is a team's success this dependent on a lack of injuries - oakland doesn't have one hitter in the lineup that i am confindent will get 600 pa's. losing frank thomas will severly impact things, and spring injuries to mark kotsay and dan johnson complicate matters further. keeping travis buck is interesting (albeit probably a bit too soon), and their bench is very solid. unfortunately, the likes of bobby kielty and shannon stewart are not really everyday material and will be depended upon heavily.
pitching
the rotation is just as injury prone as the lineup, but will be strong if healthy. there is depth here as well, with brad halsey and jason windsor ready (and in windsor's case, able) when the first starter goes down (which, um, already happened. see: loaiza, esteban). the bullpen, while not quite at minnesota's level, is excellent.
angels
hitting
i really can't ever get over batting orlando cabrera second, but when your team has only 1 guy projected to have an OBP over .345 (vlad, at .380) i guess it doesn't matter much. personally, i would bat kendrick second, and i can't imagine scoscia will keep him buried in the 7 hole for very long. losing juan rivera in winter ball and chone figgins in spring training hurt, but figgins injury could open the door for brandon wood if he starts the year hot in salt lake city and figgins needs more than 4-6 weeks to recover from that broken finger. i think casey kotchman (still only 24) will put up an overbay-esque campaign, which would be a huge improvement over what LA got from 1b last year. and if everyone can look past the oodles of strikeouts mike napoli will put up, his patience and power at the plate make him an above average catcher.
pitching
when weaver and colon return, the halos will be tossing ervin santana as their #5 - not too shabby. until those two return, joe saunders will be a fine solution for the last spot in the AL's finest rotation. the bullpen, per usual, will be strong (though i think they will be regretting the last 2 years of that recent scot shields extension).
rangers
hitting
there's a lot to like about the lineup in texas. finally handing the backstop job to gerald laird was a good decision, and i like the additions of catalanotto and lofton with the departure of sarge jr. blalock and wilkerson will likely rebound to league average for their respective positions. i'm not sold on the sosa project, and if it's failing i hope they don't wait too long to hand the dh job to jason botts or nelson cruz. the backup of's are more than adequate, and the utility if's won't see much time no matter who they are.
pitching
just like it is no surprise that the angels have a strong staff, the rangers' poor rotation shouldn't raise any eyebrows. i'm still not over the chris young for adam eaton trade. after millwood and padilla the rotation is a mess, with not much help in oklahoma after edison volquez (john danks was dealt for mccarthy, thomas diamond is out for the year). the bullpen will have to be deep to support the starters, and gagne will give them a major boost when he returns. maybe wes littleton will be this year's rick bauer.
seattle
hitting
while oakland is banking on staying healthy to contend, seattle is banking on hope - and lot's of it. vidro, jose guillen, jose lopez...this team is loaded with "it only"s. the fact that rey ordonez almost made the club should be some indication of the shape seattle is in.
pitching
like the lineup, the rotation is also brimming with projects. it's hard to predict what 2007 will hold for jeff weaver, horacio ramirez and miguel batista - i could see the m's catching lightning in a bottle with one of them, but that's about it. after jj putz and julio mateo, the bullpen is gross.
predictions:
angels
rangers
a's
mariners
Sunday, April 01, 2007
al central
chisox
hitting
while any lineup with paul konerko, jim thome and jermaine dye stacked in the middle appears strong, it hurts that the team's worst hitter (either podsednik, who projects -2.3 VORP or erstad, at a whopping -19.6) will likely bat leadoff. it likely hurts worse that after dye, none of last 4 hitters project at OBP over .320.
pitching
while the rotation used to be a major strength, it is now a major question mark. javy vazquez is probably their best starter, and PECOTA sees him as the only one to strikeout more than 110 batters. things in the bullpen are not much better, especially if bobby jenks continues his spring struggles.
tribe
hitting
i wrote something in the offseason about how much i liked the indians offseason moves. every hitter in the lineup projects to hit double digit dongs, and the outfield platoons will work well. you could nitpick that josh barfield and andy marte don't reach base enough, but if that pair is hitting 8 and 9 i think things are okay.
pitching
the staff is quietly one of the best in the american league (fausto carmona = sleeper) and cleveland has depth in the rotation as well. adam miller will likely break into the mix at some point. it may work out well that joe borowski (arguably the pen's worst arm) will be relegated to the closer role, leaving more high leverage situations to the likes of rafael betancourt.
tigers
hitting
jim leyland does his best to give his worst hitters the most ab's (polanco and his sub-.700 OPS in 2006 will hit second, and the declining pudge is likely to hit in the top 5 as well), while burying arguably their best (carlos guillen) in the 6 hole. gary sheffield obviously helps a lot, but playing sean casey and craig monroe over chris shelton and marcus thams will definitely cost them some wins.
pitching
detroit's rotation takes a hit in losing kenny rogers (and likely will lead to andrew miller rushing through the minors), verlander, bonderman and robertson should be able to hold down the fort until rogers returns.
twins
hitting
getting nick punto out of the top of the order should be a priority, but the twinkies lineup should be improved. i don't like giving at bats to rondell white, but that is better than giving them to lew ford, and white can't be as bad as last year. a full year of jason kubel should help too. and while the spare outfielders are weak, jeff cirillo and alexi casilla give them depth in the IF.
pitching
sending scott baker, glen perkins, and matt garza to AAA in favor of retreads like ramon ortiz and sidney ponson is a disaster in the short term (read: april), but having 4 solid youngsters (add kevin slowey to the mix) can only help in the long run. having a phenomenal bullpen won't hurt matters either.
royals
hitting
they finally did it! demoting angel berroa was a long time coming, and that's not the only step in the right direction in kansas city. with a nice young offensive core headlined by mark teahen, alex gordon and billy butler (who will DH at mike sweeney's first injury), the royals should improve on the 757 runs scored in 2006 (good for 13th in the AL). don't overlook david dejesus in CF or even ross gload in left. mark grudzelanek's injury opens the door for the superior esteban german, but tony pena is no answer at short. with nothing to lose, i simply cannot see why the royals won't give teahen a shot at SS.
pitching
unlike the offense, their is not much hope for the rotation. only odalis perez (at 4.78) projects for an ERA below 5, and KC seems destined for 3+ hour ball games. rule 5 pick joakim soria might be their best reliever, so there won't be much help in the pen.
predictions:
indians
tigers
twins
white sox
royals
chisox
hitting
while any lineup with paul konerko, jim thome and jermaine dye stacked in the middle appears strong, it hurts that the team's worst hitter (either podsednik, who projects -2.3 VORP or erstad, at a whopping -19.6) will likely bat leadoff. it likely hurts worse that after dye, none of last 4 hitters project at OBP over .320.
pitching
while the rotation used to be a major strength, it is now a major question mark. javy vazquez is probably their best starter, and PECOTA sees him as the only one to strikeout more than 110 batters. things in the bullpen are not much better, especially if bobby jenks continues his spring struggles.
tribe
hitting
i wrote something in the offseason about how much i liked the indians offseason moves. every hitter in the lineup projects to hit double digit dongs, and the outfield platoons will work well. you could nitpick that josh barfield and andy marte don't reach base enough, but if that pair is hitting 8 and 9 i think things are okay.
pitching
the staff is quietly one of the best in the american league (fausto carmona = sleeper) and cleveland has depth in the rotation as well. adam miller will likely break into the mix at some point. it may work out well that joe borowski (arguably the pen's worst arm) will be relegated to the closer role, leaving more high leverage situations to the likes of rafael betancourt.
tigers
hitting
jim leyland does his best to give his worst hitters the most ab's (polanco and his sub-.700 OPS in 2006 will hit second, and the declining pudge is likely to hit in the top 5 as well), while burying arguably their best (carlos guillen) in the 6 hole. gary sheffield obviously helps a lot, but playing sean casey and craig monroe over chris shelton and marcus thams will definitely cost them some wins.
pitching
detroit's rotation takes a hit in losing kenny rogers (and likely will lead to andrew miller rushing through the minors), verlander, bonderman and robertson should be able to hold down the fort until rogers returns.
twins
hitting
getting nick punto out of the top of the order should be a priority, but the twinkies lineup should be improved. i don't like giving at bats to rondell white, but that is better than giving them to lew ford, and white can't be as bad as last year. a full year of jason kubel should help too. and while the spare outfielders are weak, jeff cirillo and alexi casilla give them depth in the IF.
pitching
sending scott baker, glen perkins, and matt garza to AAA in favor of retreads like ramon ortiz and sidney ponson is a disaster in the short term (read: april), but having 4 solid youngsters (add kevin slowey to the mix) can only help in the long run. having a phenomenal bullpen won't hurt matters either.
royals
hitting
they finally did it! demoting angel berroa was a long time coming, and that's not the only step in the right direction in kansas city. with a nice young offensive core headlined by mark teahen, alex gordon and billy butler (who will DH at mike sweeney's first injury), the royals should improve on the 757 runs scored in 2006 (good for 13th in the AL). don't overlook david dejesus in CF or even ross gload in left. mark grudzelanek's injury opens the door for the superior esteban german, but tony pena is no answer at short. with nothing to lose, i simply cannot see why the royals won't give teahen a shot at SS.
pitching
unlike the offense, their is not much hope for the rotation. only odalis perez (at 4.78) projects for an ERA below 5, and KC seems destined for 3+ hour ball games. rule 5 pick joakim soria might be their best reliever, so there won't be much help in the pen.
predictions:
indians
tigers
twins
white sox
royals
