Friday, June 15, 2007
under the radar AL all-star hitters
c: joe buck, royals
one of the few bright spots for KC this year, buck ranks 3rd in OPS (.906) for catchers behind perenial sluggers jorge posada and victor martinez. his 10 homers trail only martinez for the position. unfortunately for royals fans (and inexplicably), kansas city refuses to fully hand him the starting role.
stat to watch: buck has a .357 OBP and .271 AVG, but has drawn only 1 bb in june. he will need to re-gain the patience he exhibited in april and may to keep his great campaign going.
1b: casey kotchman, halos
after a few gross partial seasons, kotchman is quietly putting up a better season than the likes of reigning MVP justin morneau, paul konerko and even mark texeria. .333/.408/.555 is impressive for sure, but it's the fact that he has more extra base hits (26) and walks (23) than strikeouts (16) that caught my eye.
stat to watch: kotchman has fewer PA's than most regular first basemen, notably due to his poor line (.244/.333/.310) against southpaws. nothing against robb quinlan, but improving this platoon split would easily have him on the radar.
2b: aaron hill, bj's
rebounding from a tough 2006, hill has posted a .277 eqa in 2007 and BP has him at 4 fielding runs above average (FRAA). though helped by the fact that the AL is weak at the keystone, he leads the position in rbi's (39) and tied for second in bb's (26).
stat to watch: hr's by month - 5, 3, 0. not a good trend.
3b: casey blake, tribe
blake took over 3rd full time with andy marte's demotion, and continued swinging a hot bat. he's 3rd in OPS (.858) for the position behind a resurgent mike lowell and that a-rod guy, who is apparently pretty good. most impressive is his 4.36 pitches/PA, which leads all AL hitters. this has been key is his .373 OBP, and great for hitting in front of pronk and victor martinez.
stat to watch: from 2004-2006, his july OPS (.774) was sandwiched between .861 (june) and .929 (august). if blake avoids another down turn next month, 2007 could be the best year of his career.
ss: brendan harris
after starting the year in the utility role, harris took the regular job from ben zobrist and never looked back. seemingly hitting in a different spot in the order every night, harris has consistently reached base all year (by month, .358, .361, .382), and turned up the power in june, slugging .600 thus far. not that i see harris replacing miguel tejada in the SS tier or anything, but he's the type of grinder that i admire and deserves a tip of the cap for his efforts.
stat to watch: BP has him at -5 FRAA, so sadly he may not be a long term solution at SS. but hey, jeter never had a positive FRAA until a-rod came to town so you never know.
lf: matt stairs, bj's
with 9 hr's in somewhat limited (but increasing) playing time, the veteran stairs is homering once every 13.9 ab's. that rate is better than magglio ordonez (18.5) and vlad guerrero (19.2), and the hr total is higher than that of manny ramirez (8 jacks). his OPS is .889 despite an iso-OBP (.073) lower than his career average (.092).
stat to watch: 7 of his homers came in may, and he's put up a sub-.700 OPS in juen. he may be suffering from over exposure.
cf: reggie willits, halos
providing instant OBP to an offense that typically lacks, willits has reached base at a .419 clip. powered by 28 bb's in 167 AB's and 15 SB's in 17 tries, willits proved something some of us have been thinking for a few years: the best thing for LA was garrett anderson getting hurt.
stat to watch: PECOTA only projected a line of .250/.325/.339 in 70 PA's. methinks his projection will be slightly better next year.
rf: travis buck, a's
an iso-SLG of .243 despite homering once every 24.7 ab's is rather jaw dropping. that gap power (10 2b's, 4 3b's) and moneyball patience (.374) are paying dividends for the a's. injuries have certainly hurt oakland, but the one that allowed buck to get called up from AAA ain't looking so bad now.
stat to watch: buck has twice as many homers (4) against southpaws in roughly 1/4 of the AB's. he's only hitting .237 against rhp. this will have to improve to offset the eventual drop in numbers against lhp.
dh: jack cust, a's
did you ever think it possible for someone hitting .218 to out-OPS travis hafner? well it's happening - since being (wisely) acquired from san diego, who was letting him rot in AAA again, cust has posted an .883 OPS, with monstrous iso-numbers (.160 iso-OBP and .287 iso-SLG). like the injury that allowed buck to get in the lineup every day, the injury to mike piazza paved the way for this. so don't feel too bad for the a's, considering piazza had 1 homer in 103 ab's (cust's 8 are in 101).
stat to watch: in june cust is homerless, only has one extra base hit, 3 bb's, and isn't playing everyday. i hope otherwise, but he may be headed for sacramento.
c: joe buck, royals
one of the few bright spots for KC this year, buck ranks 3rd in OPS (.906) for catchers behind perenial sluggers jorge posada and victor martinez. his 10 homers trail only martinez for the position. unfortunately for royals fans (and inexplicably), kansas city refuses to fully hand him the starting role.
stat to watch: buck has a .357 OBP and .271 AVG, but has drawn only 1 bb in june. he will need to re-gain the patience he exhibited in april and may to keep his great campaign going.
1b: casey kotchman, halos
after a few gross partial seasons, kotchman is quietly putting up a better season than the likes of reigning MVP justin morneau, paul konerko and even mark texeria. .333/.408/.555 is impressive for sure, but it's the fact that he has more extra base hits (26) and walks (23) than strikeouts (16) that caught my eye.
stat to watch: kotchman has fewer PA's than most regular first basemen, notably due to his poor line (.244/.333/.310) against southpaws. nothing against robb quinlan, but improving this platoon split would easily have him on the radar.
2b: aaron hill, bj's
rebounding from a tough 2006, hill has posted a .277 eqa in 2007 and BP has him at 4 fielding runs above average (FRAA). though helped by the fact that the AL is weak at the keystone, he leads the position in rbi's (39) and tied for second in bb's (26).
stat to watch: hr's by month - 5, 3, 0. not a good trend.
3b: casey blake, tribe
blake took over 3rd full time with andy marte's demotion, and continued swinging a hot bat. he's 3rd in OPS (.858) for the position behind a resurgent mike lowell and that a-rod guy, who is apparently pretty good. most impressive is his 4.36 pitches/PA, which leads all AL hitters. this has been key is his .373 OBP, and great for hitting in front of pronk and victor martinez.
stat to watch: from 2004-2006, his july OPS (.774) was sandwiched between .861 (june) and .929 (august). if blake avoids another down turn next month, 2007 could be the best year of his career.
ss: brendan harris
after starting the year in the utility role, harris took the regular job from ben zobrist and never looked back. seemingly hitting in a different spot in the order every night, harris has consistently reached base all year (by month, .358, .361, .382), and turned up the power in june, slugging .600 thus far. not that i see harris replacing miguel tejada in the SS tier or anything, but he's the type of grinder that i admire and deserves a tip of the cap for his efforts.
stat to watch: BP has him at -5 FRAA, so sadly he may not be a long term solution at SS. but hey, jeter never had a positive FRAA until a-rod came to town so you never know.
lf: matt stairs, bj's
with 9 hr's in somewhat limited (but increasing) playing time, the veteran stairs is homering once every 13.9 ab's. that rate is better than magglio ordonez (18.5) and vlad guerrero (19.2), and the hr total is higher than that of manny ramirez (8 jacks). his OPS is .889 despite an iso-OBP (.073) lower than his career average (.092).
stat to watch: 7 of his homers came in may, and he's put up a sub-.700 OPS in juen. he may be suffering from over exposure.
cf: reggie willits, halos
providing instant OBP to an offense that typically lacks, willits has reached base at a .419 clip. powered by 28 bb's in 167 AB's and 15 SB's in 17 tries, willits proved something some of us have been thinking for a few years: the best thing for LA was garrett anderson getting hurt.
stat to watch: PECOTA only projected a line of .250/.325/.339 in 70 PA's. methinks his projection will be slightly better next year.
rf: travis buck, a's
an iso-SLG of .243 despite homering once every 24.7 ab's is rather jaw dropping. that gap power (10 2b's, 4 3b's) and moneyball patience (.374) are paying dividends for the a's. injuries have certainly hurt oakland, but the one that allowed buck to get called up from AAA ain't looking so bad now.
stat to watch: buck has twice as many homers (4) against southpaws in roughly 1/4 of the AB's. he's only hitting .237 against rhp. this will have to improve to offset the eventual drop in numbers against lhp.
dh: jack cust, a's
did you ever think it possible for someone hitting .218 to out-OPS travis hafner? well it's happening - since being (wisely) acquired from san diego, who was letting him rot in AAA again, cust has posted an .883 OPS, with monstrous iso-numbers (.160 iso-OBP and .287 iso-SLG). like the injury that allowed buck to get in the lineup every day, the injury to mike piazza paved the way for this. so don't feel too bad for the a's, considering piazza had 1 homer in 103 ab's (cust's 8 are in 101).
stat to watch: in june cust is homerless, only has one extra base hit, 3 bb's, and isn't playing everyday. i hope otherwise, but he may be headed for sacramento.
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
al west
a's
hitting
rarely is a team's success this dependent on a lack of injuries - oakland doesn't have one hitter in the lineup that i am confindent will get 600 pa's. losing frank thomas will severly impact things, and spring injuries to mark kotsay and dan johnson complicate matters further. keeping travis buck is interesting (albeit probably a bit too soon), and their bench is very solid. unfortunately, the likes of bobby kielty and shannon stewart are not really everyday material and will be depended upon heavily.
pitching
the rotation is just as injury prone as the lineup, but will be strong if healthy. there is depth here as well, with brad halsey and jason windsor ready (and in windsor's case, able) when the first starter goes down (which, um, already happened. see: loaiza, esteban). the bullpen, while not quite at minnesota's level, is excellent.
angels
hitting
i really can't ever get over batting orlando cabrera second, but when your team has only 1 guy projected to have an OBP over .345 (vlad, at .380) i guess it doesn't matter much. personally, i would bat kendrick second, and i can't imagine scoscia will keep him buried in the 7 hole for very long. losing juan rivera in winter ball and chone figgins in spring training hurt, but figgins injury could open the door for brandon wood if he starts the year hot in salt lake city and figgins needs more than 4-6 weeks to recover from that broken finger. i think casey kotchman (still only 24) will put up an overbay-esque campaign, which would be a huge improvement over what LA got from 1b last year. and if everyone can look past the oodles of strikeouts mike napoli will put up, his patience and power at the plate make him an above average catcher.
pitching
when weaver and colon return, the halos will be tossing ervin santana as their #5 - not too shabby. until those two return, joe saunders will be a fine solution for the last spot in the AL's finest rotation. the bullpen, per usual, will be strong (though i think they will be regretting the last 2 years of that recent scot shields extension).
rangers
hitting
there's a lot to like about the lineup in texas. finally handing the backstop job to gerald laird was a good decision, and i like the additions of catalanotto and lofton with the departure of sarge jr. blalock and wilkerson will likely rebound to league average for their respective positions. i'm not sold on the sosa project, and if it's failing i hope they don't wait too long to hand the dh job to jason botts or nelson cruz. the backup of's are more than adequate, and the utility if's won't see much time no matter who they are.
pitching
just like it is no surprise that the angels have a strong staff, the rangers' poor rotation shouldn't raise any eyebrows. i'm still not over the chris young for adam eaton trade. after millwood and padilla the rotation is a mess, with not much help in oklahoma after edison volquez (john danks was dealt for mccarthy, thomas diamond is out for the year). the bullpen will have to be deep to support the starters, and gagne will give them a major boost when he returns. maybe wes littleton will be this year's rick bauer.
seattle
hitting
while oakland is banking on staying healthy to contend, seattle is banking on hope - and lot's of it. vidro, jose guillen, jose lopez...this team is loaded with "it only"s. the fact that rey ordonez almost made the club should be some indication of the shape seattle is in.
pitching
like the lineup, the rotation is also brimming with projects. it's hard to predict what 2007 will hold for jeff weaver, horacio ramirez and miguel batista - i could see the m's catching lightning in a bottle with one of them, but that's about it. after jj putz and julio mateo, the bullpen is gross.
predictions:
angels
rangers
a's
mariners
a's
hitting
rarely is a team's success this dependent on a lack of injuries - oakland doesn't have one hitter in the lineup that i am confindent will get 600 pa's. losing frank thomas will severly impact things, and spring injuries to mark kotsay and dan johnson complicate matters further. keeping travis buck is interesting (albeit probably a bit too soon), and their bench is very solid. unfortunately, the likes of bobby kielty and shannon stewart are not really everyday material and will be depended upon heavily.
pitching
the rotation is just as injury prone as the lineup, but will be strong if healthy. there is depth here as well, with brad halsey and jason windsor ready (and in windsor's case, able) when the first starter goes down (which, um, already happened. see: loaiza, esteban). the bullpen, while not quite at minnesota's level, is excellent.
angels
hitting
i really can't ever get over batting orlando cabrera second, but when your team has only 1 guy projected to have an OBP over .345 (vlad, at .380) i guess it doesn't matter much. personally, i would bat kendrick second, and i can't imagine scoscia will keep him buried in the 7 hole for very long. losing juan rivera in winter ball and chone figgins in spring training hurt, but figgins injury could open the door for brandon wood if he starts the year hot in salt lake city and figgins needs more than 4-6 weeks to recover from that broken finger. i think casey kotchman (still only 24) will put up an overbay-esque campaign, which would be a huge improvement over what LA got from 1b last year. and if everyone can look past the oodles of strikeouts mike napoli will put up, his patience and power at the plate make him an above average catcher.
pitching
when weaver and colon return, the halos will be tossing ervin santana as their #5 - not too shabby. until those two return, joe saunders will be a fine solution for the last spot in the AL's finest rotation. the bullpen, per usual, will be strong (though i think they will be regretting the last 2 years of that recent scot shields extension).
rangers
hitting
there's a lot to like about the lineup in texas. finally handing the backstop job to gerald laird was a good decision, and i like the additions of catalanotto and lofton with the departure of sarge jr. blalock and wilkerson will likely rebound to league average for their respective positions. i'm not sold on the sosa project, and if it's failing i hope they don't wait too long to hand the dh job to jason botts or nelson cruz. the backup of's are more than adequate, and the utility if's won't see much time no matter who they are.
pitching
just like it is no surprise that the angels have a strong staff, the rangers' poor rotation shouldn't raise any eyebrows. i'm still not over the chris young for adam eaton trade. after millwood and padilla the rotation is a mess, with not much help in oklahoma after edison volquez (john danks was dealt for mccarthy, thomas diamond is out for the year). the bullpen will have to be deep to support the starters, and gagne will give them a major boost when he returns. maybe wes littleton will be this year's rick bauer.
seattle
hitting
while oakland is banking on staying healthy to contend, seattle is banking on hope - and lot's of it. vidro, jose guillen, jose lopez...this team is loaded with "it only"s. the fact that rey ordonez almost made the club should be some indication of the shape seattle is in.
pitching
like the lineup, the rotation is also brimming with projects. it's hard to predict what 2007 will hold for jeff weaver, horacio ramirez and miguel batista - i could see the m's catching lightning in a bottle with one of them, but that's about it. after jj putz and julio mateo, the bullpen is gross.
predictions:
angels
rangers
a's
mariners
Sunday, April 01, 2007
al central
chisox
hitting
while any lineup with paul konerko, jim thome and jermaine dye stacked in the middle appears strong, it hurts that the team's worst hitter (either podsednik, who projects -2.3 VORP or erstad, at a whopping -19.6) will likely bat leadoff. it likely hurts worse that after dye, none of last 4 hitters project at OBP over .320.
pitching
while the rotation used to be a major strength, it is now a major question mark. javy vazquez is probably their best starter, and PECOTA sees him as the only one to strikeout more than 110 batters. things in the bullpen are not much better, especially if bobby jenks continues his spring struggles.
tribe
hitting
i wrote something in the offseason about how much i liked the indians offseason moves. every hitter in the lineup projects to hit double digit dongs, and the outfield platoons will work well. you could nitpick that josh barfield and andy marte don't reach base enough, but if that pair is hitting 8 and 9 i think things are okay.
pitching
the staff is quietly one of the best in the american league (fausto carmona = sleeper) and cleveland has depth in the rotation as well. adam miller will likely break into the mix at some point. it may work out well that joe borowski (arguably the pen's worst arm) will be relegated to the closer role, leaving more high leverage situations to the likes of rafael betancourt.
tigers
hitting
jim leyland does his best to give his worst hitters the most ab's (polanco and his sub-.700 OPS in 2006 will hit second, and the declining pudge is likely to hit in the top 5 as well), while burying arguably their best (carlos guillen) in the 6 hole. gary sheffield obviously helps a lot, but playing sean casey and craig monroe over chris shelton and marcus thams will definitely cost them some wins.
pitching
detroit's rotation takes a hit in losing kenny rogers (and likely will lead to andrew miller rushing through the minors), verlander, bonderman and robertson should be able to hold down the fort until rogers returns.
twins
hitting
getting nick punto out of the top of the order should be a priority, but the twinkies lineup should be improved. i don't like giving at bats to rondell white, but that is better than giving them to lew ford, and white can't be as bad as last year. a full year of jason kubel should help too. and while the spare outfielders are weak, jeff cirillo and alexi casilla give them depth in the IF.
pitching
sending scott baker, glen perkins, and matt garza to AAA in favor of retreads like ramon ortiz and sidney ponson is a disaster in the short term (read: april), but having 4 solid youngsters (add kevin slowey to the mix) can only help in the long run. having a phenomenal bullpen won't hurt matters either.
royals
hitting
they finally did it! demoting angel berroa was a long time coming, and that's not the only step in the right direction in kansas city. with a nice young offensive core headlined by mark teahen, alex gordon and billy butler (who will DH at mike sweeney's first injury), the royals should improve on the 757 runs scored in 2006 (good for 13th in the AL). don't overlook david dejesus in CF or even ross gload in left. mark grudzelanek's injury opens the door for the superior esteban german, but tony pena is no answer at short. with nothing to lose, i simply cannot see why the royals won't give teahen a shot at SS.
pitching
unlike the offense, their is not much hope for the rotation. only odalis perez (at 4.78) projects for an ERA below 5, and KC seems destined for 3+ hour ball games. rule 5 pick joakim soria might be their best reliever, so there won't be much help in the pen.
predictions:
indians
tigers
twins
white sox
royals
chisox
hitting
while any lineup with paul konerko, jim thome and jermaine dye stacked in the middle appears strong, it hurts that the team's worst hitter (either podsednik, who projects -2.3 VORP or erstad, at a whopping -19.6) will likely bat leadoff. it likely hurts worse that after dye, none of last 4 hitters project at OBP over .320.
pitching
while the rotation used to be a major strength, it is now a major question mark. javy vazquez is probably their best starter, and PECOTA sees him as the only one to strikeout more than 110 batters. things in the bullpen are not much better, especially if bobby jenks continues his spring struggles.
tribe
hitting
i wrote something in the offseason about how much i liked the indians offseason moves. every hitter in the lineup projects to hit double digit dongs, and the outfield platoons will work well. you could nitpick that josh barfield and andy marte don't reach base enough, but if that pair is hitting 8 and 9 i think things are okay.
pitching
the staff is quietly one of the best in the american league (fausto carmona = sleeper) and cleveland has depth in the rotation as well. adam miller will likely break into the mix at some point. it may work out well that joe borowski (arguably the pen's worst arm) will be relegated to the closer role, leaving more high leverage situations to the likes of rafael betancourt.
tigers
hitting
jim leyland does his best to give his worst hitters the most ab's (polanco and his sub-.700 OPS in 2006 will hit second, and the declining pudge is likely to hit in the top 5 as well), while burying arguably their best (carlos guillen) in the 6 hole. gary sheffield obviously helps a lot, but playing sean casey and craig monroe over chris shelton and marcus thams will definitely cost them some wins.
pitching
detroit's rotation takes a hit in losing kenny rogers (and likely will lead to andrew miller rushing through the minors), verlander, bonderman and robertson should be able to hold down the fort until rogers returns.
twins
hitting
getting nick punto out of the top of the order should be a priority, but the twinkies lineup should be improved. i don't like giving at bats to rondell white, but that is better than giving them to lew ford, and white can't be as bad as last year. a full year of jason kubel should help too. and while the spare outfielders are weak, jeff cirillo and alexi casilla give them depth in the IF.
pitching
sending scott baker, glen perkins, and matt garza to AAA in favor of retreads like ramon ortiz and sidney ponson is a disaster in the short term (read: april), but having 4 solid youngsters (add kevin slowey to the mix) can only help in the long run. having a phenomenal bullpen won't hurt matters either.
royals
hitting
they finally did it! demoting angel berroa was a long time coming, and that's not the only step in the right direction in kansas city. with a nice young offensive core headlined by mark teahen, alex gordon and billy butler (who will DH at mike sweeney's first injury), the royals should improve on the 757 runs scored in 2006 (good for 13th in the AL). don't overlook david dejesus in CF or even ross gload in left. mark grudzelanek's injury opens the door for the superior esteban german, but tony pena is no answer at short. with nothing to lose, i simply cannot see why the royals won't give teahen a shot at SS.
pitching
unlike the offense, their is not much hope for the rotation. only odalis perez (at 4.78) projects for an ERA below 5, and KC seems destined for 3+ hour ball games. rule 5 pick joakim soria might be their best reliever, so there won't be much help in the pen.
predictions:
indians
tigers
twins
white sox
royals
Friday, March 30, 2007
al east
yanks
hitting
new york has the best offense in the majors, even with doug minky taking ab's that should go to josh phelps. i question the decision to go with wil nieves as jorge's backup, especially with mike rivera recently clearing waivers in milwaukee. but really, that's just nitpicking.
pitching
with possible injuries to pettite, wang and 5th starter jeff karstens, the randy johnson trade is looking worse and worse. naming carl pavano as the opening day starter is not inspiring confidence in the bronx. it's looking more and more like phillip hughes won't be in scranton (no more columbus, folks) very long. the bullpen is as strong as it's been in a few years.
bosox
hitting
any lineup anchored with manny and papi is sure to score runs but boston does have a number of question marks in the lineup. namely, will varitek and crisp bounce back, and will dustin pedroia be able to produce as full time players? as a yanks fan, i have to say, unfortunately, yes to those questions. sure varitek is in the decline age for a catcher, but he's still above average. the sox have a very nice bench, highlighted by wily mo pena and eric hinske.
pitching
the talk is all about dice-k, but the real issue is how the back of the rotation will perform. i've always been a big wakefield fan, but his mysterious injury late last year has to raise eyebrows. more importantly, with papelbon back in the pen, julian tavarez is no answer as the #5 (i'd risk piniero there). the pen is old, and the youngsters like craig hansen are not taking over as quickly as expected.
blue jays
hitting
although the addition of frank thomas is a big improvement in the dh slot, a number of blue jays are likely to slide a bit from last year (don't expect reed johnson to repeat an OPS near .870). that said, their lineup is still pretty mean (ignoring royce clayton of course). i like the addition of matt stairs, but other than that the bench is poor.
pitching
halladay and burnett make a strong 1-2 punch, and i like the tomo ohka signing. but the back side is sketchy. shaun marcum will start in the pen, which is bad news since his PECOTA projected 4.89 era and 1.43 whip are considerably better than the gustavo chacin's 5.60/1.59. after buddy ryan, there is not much to be enamored with in the bullpen.
devil rays
hitting
the main question marks here are on the right side of the infield. i'd like to see elijah dukes get a lion's share of the pa's at 1b, but you could do worse than ty wiggninton there (remember, travis lee was a long time d-ray). jorge cantu is on the verge of losing his job to bj upton, and while PECOTA projects almost identical OPS's for those two, i'd vote for ushering in the upton era in tampa.
pitching
it was easy to overlook the solid 21 starts jamie shields put up in 2006, but we'll see a lot more of him in 2007. PECOTA does not care much for jae seo, casey fossum or former prospect edwin jackson, but i think seo can still become a solid middle of the rotation arm, and jeff niemann should give the back of the rotation some support come the midseason. the bullpen is an absolute disaster.
orioles
hitting
with not one player in the lineup projected to crack an OBP of .360 or OPS of .850 , scoring will be a struggle in baltimore. tejada and markakis are the best bets to carry the offense, and sadly, there is not much help in the high minor leagues. let's just move on.
pitching
the loss of kris benson is disappointing, but probably wouldn't have kept the o's out of the cellar anyway. baltimore will enjoy watching the progression of erik bedard, adam loewen and daniel cabrera, but those 3+ hour steve traschel outings? not so much. at least they bolstered their bullpen with solid but super expensive veterans.
predictions:
yanks
bosox
bj's
d-rays
o's
yanks
hitting
new york has the best offense in the majors, even with doug minky taking ab's that should go to josh phelps. i question the decision to go with wil nieves as jorge's backup, especially with mike rivera recently clearing waivers in milwaukee. but really, that's just nitpicking.
pitching
with possible injuries to pettite, wang and 5th starter jeff karstens, the randy johnson trade is looking worse and worse. naming carl pavano as the opening day starter is not inspiring confidence in the bronx. it's looking more and more like phillip hughes won't be in scranton (no more columbus, folks) very long. the bullpen is as strong as it's been in a few years.
bosox
hitting
any lineup anchored with manny and papi is sure to score runs but boston does have a number of question marks in the lineup. namely, will varitek and crisp bounce back, and will dustin pedroia be able to produce as full time players? as a yanks fan, i have to say, unfortunately, yes to those questions. sure varitek is in the decline age for a catcher, but he's still above average. the sox have a very nice bench, highlighted by wily mo pena and eric hinske.
pitching
the talk is all about dice-k, but the real issue is how the back of the rotation will perform. i've always been a big wakefield fan, but his mysterious injury late last year has to raise eyebrows. more importantly, with papelbon back in the pen, julian tavarez is no answer as the #5 (i'd risk piniero there). the pen is old, and the youngsters like craig hansen are not taking over as quickly as expected.
blue jays
hitting
although the addition of frank thomas is a big improvement in the dh slot, a number of blue jays are likely to slide a bit from last year (don't expect reed johnson to repeat an OPS near .870). that said, their lineup is still pretty mean (ignoring royce clayton of course). i like the addition of matt stairs, but other than that the bench is poor.
pitching
halladay and burnett make a strong 1-2 punch, and i like the tomo ohka signing. but the back side is sketchy. shaun marcum will start in the pen, which is bad news since his PECOTA projected 4.89 era and 1.43 whip are considerably better than the gustavo chacin's 5.60/1.59. after buddy ryan, there is not much to be enamored with in the bullpen.
devil rays
hitting
the main question marks here are on the right side of the infield. i'd like to see elijah dukes get a lion's share of the pa's at 1b, but you could do worse than ty wiggninton there (remember, travis lee was a long time d-ray). jorge cantu is on the verge of losing his job to bj upton, and while PECOTA projects almost identical OPS's for those two, i'd vote for ushering in the upton era in tampa.
pitching
it was easy to overlook the solid 21 starts jamie shields put up in 2006, but we'll see a lot more of him in 2007. PECOTA does not care much for jae seo, casey fossum or former prospect edwin jackson, but i think seo can still become a solid middle of the rotation arm, and jeff niemann should give the back of the rotation some support come the midseason. the bullpen is an absolute disaster.
orioles
hitting
with not one player in the lineup projected to crack an OBP of .360 or OPS of .850 , scoring will be a struggle in baltimore. tejada and markakis are the best bets to carry the offense, and sadly, there is not much help in the high minor leagues. let's just move on.
pitching
the loss of kris benson is disappointing, but probably wouldn't have kept the o's out of the cellar anyway. baltimore will enjoy watching the progression of erik bedard, adam loewen and daniel cabrera, but those 3+ hour steve traschel outings? not so much. at least they bolstered their bullpen with solid but super expensive veterans.
predictions:
yanks
bosox
bj's
d-rays
o's
ok, so i've been reaaaallly lazy in keeping up with my in depth previews, so i'll try to quickly get to each division before opening day
nl central
st louis
hitting
after the pujols-edmonds-rolen core, there is a big drop off in the lineup. adam kennedy brings some stability to the keystone, but depending on chris duncan and preston wilson (with encarnacion's injury) in the corners is suspect. whenever edmonds has his first injury, the outfield will be manned with question marks. yadier molina will likely not repeat his world series feats, and will return to ausmus level offensively (PECOTA sees a .249/.306/.356 campaign).
pitching
after carpenter, wainwright and youngster anthony reyes, the cards are depending on kip wells and converted reliever braden looper (who recently threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in arizona). st louis is hoping dave duncan can work his magic with this duo, but they should at least be able to man the back of the rotation until mulder can replace one of them this summer. izzy hasn't thrown on consecutive days yet this spring, but will be a reliable closer when he can pitch. losing josh kinney hurts the pen.
houston
hitting
after berkman, lee and ensberg, this is a lineup chock full of outs: biggio, ausmus, everett. chris burke will do a nice job in cf and switch to 2b when biggio reaches the 3000 hit mark, and the stros need jason lane to keep mashing homers like he is this spring. hunter pence will bide his time in round rock until mid-summer. luke scott and mike lamb give them a nice bench. too bad they can't catch or play short.
pitching
oswalt, jennings, then pray for 3 days of rain. brad lidge leads a solid pen, but with the garbage at the back of the rotation, they could be spent by july.
cubs
hitting
chicago boasts a scary lineup (cliff floyd will likely be the 4th OF!). hopefully sweet lou will give the utility ab's to ryan theriot in lieu of ronny cedeno and keep matt murton in left as much as possible. felix pie could be taking PT from jacque jones very soon.
pitching
i question any staff with ted lilly as the #2. prior and wade miller likely won't make 30 starts combined, which means rich hill and jason marquis will be heavily depended on. which, by the way, is not good. i do like the pen, especially if mike wuertz and bobby howry are pitching the high leverage situations. keep dempster in that "3 runs up" closer role, just like detroit did last year with jones.
brewers
hittingthe graffanino/counsell platoon at third is far from ideal, but just a stop gap until ryan braun shows he can handle the throw from the hot corner (scarily, this might be never). if yost can follow through on playing corey hart (who along with rickie weeks will compete for his first 20-20 campaign) full time while platooning mench and jenkins, the outfield will be great. gabe gross rounds out a strong bench.
pitching
jeff suppan is likely their worst starter, and that's not too shabby. dave bush will put up another fine under-the-radar year, and carlos villanueva and yovani gallardo are in the wings in case of injury. the hard throwing bull pen will be aided by turnbow's relative return to form.
reds
hitting
despite giving up kearns and lopez for free last year, cincy will post on their best lineups in years. edwin encarnacion will continue to improve and david ross is an improvement over jason larue. ryan freel will be more valuable in center than juan pierre at a fraction of the cost, while griffey slides to a corner. the reds' bench took a big hit with the loss of chris denorfia to TJ surjery, and cincy will be in trouble if any regular but hatteberg (thanks to joey votto) goes down. it will be interesting to see what, if any, role josh hamilton will play.
pitching
aaron harang and brandon (er, bronson) arroyo lead the rotation, but no one in ohio can feel to good about the three-headed monster of milton, lohse, and belisle. cincy fans should be praying for homer bailey to get off to a hot start in louisville. the pen will be full of retreads like dustin hermanson and mike stanton, so depth will be an issue when the injuries start piling up.
pirates
hittingwith only a handful of above average hitters in their lineup and only 2 starters who project an OBP over .350 (bay and laroche), scoring runs may be a problem in the steel city. i like the shift of freddy sanchez to 2b, where he holds more offensive value, but the lack of power at 3b (jose bautista) and rf (xavier nady, more suited to platoon) will be an issue. ronny paulino will quietly continue his rise into the short list of good hitting NL catchers.
pitching
i admire that the bucs are sticking with the 4 homegrown youngsters (duke, snell, maholm and gorzelanny), but it's too bad not one is an ace. the 5th spot will be given to the lesser of 2 evils (armas and chacon). after damasco marte and matt capps (who should soon be the closer), the pen is hurting.
predictions:
cards
brewers
cubs
reds
astros
pirates
with the current rosters, i like milwaukee best. but i think walt jocketty will make a midseason move in st louis to push the cards over the top.
nl central
st louis
hitting
after the pujols-edmonds-rolen core, there is a big drop off in the lineup. adam kennedy brings some stability to the keystone, but depending on chris duncan and preston wilson (with encarnacion's injury) in the corners is suspect. whenever edmonds has his first injury, the outfield will be manned with question marks. yadier molina will likely not repeat his world series feats, and will return to ausmus level offensively (PECOTA sees a .249/.306/.356 campaign).
pitching
after carpenter, wainwright and youngster anthony reyes, the cards are depending on kip wells and converted reliever braden looper (who recently threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in arizona). st louis is hoping dave duncan can work his magic with this duo, but they should at least be able to man the back of the rotation until mulder can replace one of them this summer. izzy hasn't thrown on consecutive days yet this spring, but will be a reliable closer when he can pitch. losing josh kinney hurts the pen.
houston
hitting
after berkman, lee and ensberg, this is a lineup chock full of outs: biggio, ausmus, everett. chris burke will do a nice job in cf and switch to 2b when biggio reaches the 3000 hit mark, and the stros need jason lane to keep mashing homers like he is this spring. hunter pence will bide his time in round rock until mid-summer. luke scott and mike lamb give them a nice bench. too bad they can't catch or play short.
pitching
oswalt, jennings, then pray for 3 days of rain. brad lidge leads a solid pen, but with the garbage at the back of the rotation, they could be spent by july.
cubs
hitting
chicago boasts a scary lineup (cliff floyd will likely be the 4th OF!). hopefully sweet lou will give the utility ab's to ryan theriot in lieu of ronny cedeno and keep matt murton in left as much as possible. felix pie could be taking PT from jacque jones very soon.
pitching
i question any staff with ted lilly as the #2. prior and wade miller likely won't make 30 starts combined, which means rich hill and jason marquis will be heavily depended on. which, by the way, is not good. i do like the pen, especially if mike wuertz and bobby howry are pitching the high leverage situations. keep dempster in that "3 runs up" closer role, just like detroit did last year with jones.
brewers
hittingthe graffanino/counsell platoon at third is far from ideal, but just a stop gap until ryan braun shows he can handle the throw from the hot corner (scarily, this might be never). if yost can follow through on playing corey hart (who along with rickie weeks will compete for his first 20-20 campaign) full time while platooning mench and jenkins, the outfield will be great. gabe gross rounds out a strong bench.
pitching
jeff suppan is likely their worst starter, and that's not too shabby. dave bush will put up another fine under-the-radar year, and carlos villanueva and yovani gallardo are in the wings in case of injury. the hard throwing bull pen will be aided by turnbow's relative return to form.
reds
hitting
despite giving up kearns and lopez for free last year, cincy will post on their best lineups in years. edwin encarnacion will continue to improve and david ross is an improvement over jason larue. ryan freel will be more valuable in center than juan pierre at a fraction of the cost, while griffey slides to a corner. the reds' bench took a big hit with the loss of chris denorfia to TJ surjery, and cincy will be in trouble if any regular but hatteberg (thanks to joey votto) goes down. it will be interesting to see what, if any, role josh hamilton will play.
pitching
aaron harang and brandon (er, bronson) arroyo lead the rotation, but no one in ohio can feel to good about the three-headed monster of milton, lohse, and belisle. cincy fans should be praying for homer bailey to get off to a hot start in louisville. the pen will be full of retreads like dustin hermanson and mike stanton, so depth will be an issue when the injuries start piling up.
pirates
hittingwith only a handful of above average hitters in their lineup and only 2 starters who project an OBP over .350 (bay and laroche), scoring runs may be a problem in the steel city. i like the shift of freddy sanchez to 2b, where he holds more offensive value, but the lack of power at 3b (jose bautista) and rf (xavier nady, more suited to platoon) will be an issue. ronny paulino will quietly continue his rise into the short list of good hitting NL catchers.
pitching
i admire that the bucs are sticking with the 4 homegrown youngsters (duke, snell, maholm and gorzelanny), but it's too bad not one is an ace. the 5th spot will be given to the lesser of 2 evils (armas and chacon). after damasco marte and matt capps (who should soon be the closer), the pen is hurting.
predictions:
cards
brewers
cubs
reds
astros
pirates
with the current rosters, i like milwaukee best. but i think walt jocketty will make a midseason move in st louis to push the cards over the top.
Monday, March 12, 2007
nl west predictions
d-backs
dodgers
padres
rockies
giants
i think arizona is by far the head of the class here (and likely the entire national league), and it seems the trend of the nl west being very balanced is fading. both the dodgers and padres will contend for the wildcard but the lack of depth in the rotation will limit the dads to 3rd place.
d-backs
dodgers
padres
rockies
giants
i think arizona is by far the head of the class here (and likely the entire national league), and it seems the trend of the nl west being very balanced is fading. both the dodgers and padres will contend for the wildcard but the lack of depth in the rotation will limit the dads to 3rd place.
giants
expecations:
with a lineup this old, the only possible expectation is to win now.
lineup:
san francisco made no attempt to make an aging lineup any younger this winter, and actually made it older. rich aurilia is penciled in at 1b, where he'll platoon with mark sweeney. like aurlia, ray durham had a great 2006, but repeat performances are unlikely. the free swinging pedro feliz has no business being a starter, and omar vizquel's productive 2006 may be the last good year of his career. replacing mike matheny could only improve san fran's offense, but benjie molina is an average catcher at best. the outfield is in better shape, though also old. bonds is still a force to be reckoned with but typically requires at least 1 day off a week. randy winn should improve on his disappointing 2006 (.324 OBP, sub-.400 SLG), and while dave roberts is no moises alou, he is no worse than a slight downgrade from the the alou/steve finley combo the giants used last year.
grade: C-
bench:
such an old team depends heavily on their bench, especially with bonds in LF. the backup OF's will be an assortment of fred lewis, jason ellison, todd linden, and dan ortmeier, of which i prefer linden and lewis. mark sweeney provides extra back up in the OF when not platooning at 1b. kevin fransden will likely be the utility IF, a role in which he should be above average assuming he can handle SS on occasion, with aurilia providing depth at 3b and 2b as well. my real concern is that the bench players will suffer from overexposure due such an old group of starters.
grade: B+
rotation:
despite spending all that cash on barry zito, matt cain is the giant's ace. matt morris and noah lowry make up the middle of the rotation, and while morris is (somewhat) a shell of his former self, he is still a solid middle of the rotation guy. lowry’s a flyball pitcher who depends on a low BABIP, but you could do worse for a #4. hopefully jonathan sanchez takes the #5 spot, since russ ortiz is not any type of solution (obviously depth is a problem here too). whoever wins the last spot will be no more than a placeholder for 2006 first rounder tim lincecum anyway, who giants fans may be clamoring for as soon as this summer.
grade: B-
bullpen:
armando benitez will enter the season as the closer, but I don’t see him lasting. his k rates have been declining for years now, and he remains a big flyball pitcher (33% GB rate for last 3 seasons). no one else is really ready to step in that role, though if billy sadler or brian wilson can maintain some semblance of control either might take over. all those years of overusage are catching up to steve kline (from 98-03, he only had one season with under 78 app’s). kevin correia may be their most dependable reliever. shockingly, the giants have no real NRI’s of note fighting for bullpen spots.
grade: D
expecations:
with a lineup this old, the only possible expectation is to win now.
lineup:
san francisco made no attempt to make an aging lineup any younger this winter, and actually made it older. rich aurilia is penciled in at 1b, where he'll platoon with mark sweeney. like aurlia, ray durham had a great 2006, but repeat performances are unlikely. the free swinging pedro feliz has no business being a starter, and omar vizquel's productive 2006 may be the last good year of his career. replacing mike matheny could only improve san fran's offense, but benjie molina is an average catcher at best. the outfield is in better shape, though also old. bonds is still a force to be reckoned with but typically requires at least 1 day off a week. randy winn should improve on his disappointing 2006 (.324 OBP, sub-.400 SLG), and while dave roberts is no moises alou, he is no worse than a slight downgrade from the the alou/steve finley combo the giants used last year.
grade: C-
bench:
such an old team depends heavily on their bench, especially with bonds in LF. the backup OF's will be an assortment of fred lewis, jason ellison, todd linden, and dan ortmeier, of which i prefer linden and lewis. mark sweeney provides extra back up in the OF when not platooning at 1b. kevin fransden will likely be the utility IF, a role in which he should be above average assuming he can handle SS on occasion, with aurilia providing depth at 3b and 2b as well. my real concern is that the bench players will suffer from overexposure due such an old group of starters.
grade: B+
rotation:
despite spending all that cash on barry zito, matt cain is the giant's ace. matt morris and noah lowry make up the middle of the rotation, and while morris is (somewhat) a shell of his former self, he is still a solid middle of the rotation guy. lowry’s a flyball pitcher who depends on a low BABIP, but you could do worse for a #4. hopefully jonathan sanchez takes the #5 spot, since russ ortiz is not any type of solution (obviously depth is a problem here too). whoever wins the last spot will be no more than a placeholder for 2006 first rounder tim lincecum anyway, who giants fans may be clamoring for as soon as this summer.
grade: B-
bullpen:
armando benitez will enter the season as the closer, but I don’t see him lasting. his k rates have been declining for years now, and he remains a big flyball pitcher (33% GB rate for last 3 seasons). no one else is really ready to step in that role, though if billy sadler or brian wilson can maintain some semblance of control either might take over. all those years of overusage are catching up to steve kline (from 98-03, he only had one season with under 78 app’s). kevin correia may be their most dependable reliever. shockingly, the giants have no real NRI’s of note fighting for bullpen spots.
grade: D
Friday, March 09, 2007
padres
expectations:
win the nl west (geez that’s getting old)
lineup:
san diego’s infield appears solid but is chock full of question marks. will adrian gonzalez build on last season’s breakout, or revert to prospect bust status? will joining his brother end marcus giles slide? will khalil greene show any signs of reverting to the form he showed as a rook? will kevin kouzmanoff’s be able to handle more or less skipping AAA (only 115 career PA’s there)? i’m inclined to think the answers will favor gonzalez, greene and kouzmanoff, but not giles (who will still likely be at least an average 2b-man). brian giles will likely slug over .400 (something he somehow didn’t do in 2006) and continue to reach base like mad, and mike cameron is an above average CF. it seems termel sledge will get his chance to start in LF, and while he likely won’t exceed dave roberts’ 2006, he has a good chance to outplay dave roberts in 2007 (meaning letting roberts go was fine). josh bard enters the year as the starter (a new role for him), and after posting an OPS over .900 in ~250 AB’s last year he’s their best option.
grade: B+
bench:
i really like the insurance russell branyan can provide at both IF corners, and he can even play a little OF as well. geoff blum is the utlity IF, but he basically takes AB’s from todd walker. the fact that san diego will likely keep all three of these guys means there’s probably only room for one extra OF. the spot should really go to either paul mcanulty or jack cust, but in the end may go to jose cruz jr (better defender). cutting or trading todd walker would give them some flexibility, but I don’t see it happening (at least not yet). while we’re on the subject, not trading cust to the AL where he can DH is also pretty dumb – a guy who’s put up an OBP over .430 in his last two AAA seasons (not to mention 49 homers) probably should get a shot at a big league job regardless of his defensive woes. Lastly, you could do worse than rob bowen as your backup catcher.
grade: B- (B+ if cruz doesn’t take the last spot)
rotation:
jake peavy, chris young and greg maddux provide a great front end of the rotation. clay hensley (who quietly put up a nice 2006 – 3.71 era, 1.34 whip in 29 starts) and david wells (44 now, and only made 13 starts in 2006) make for a decent back end, but depth will be a huge problem. NRI shawn estes may be one of their first replacements – so two injuries here and san diego will be in big trouble.
grade: B
bullpen:
the dads are very strong in the reliever department, with trevor hoffman leading a corp that includes scott linebrink (who was possibly involved in the most ever trade rumors for a middle reliever), former bosox farmhand cla meredith (think the sox are regretting that mirabelli for bard and meredith move just a bit?), and scott cassidy. an assortment of vets will round out the pen. the only big concern here is that the following (numbers for 2006):
p, % of starts into the 7th inning
peavy, 56%
young, 42%
maddux, 44%
hensley, 41%
wells, 39%
will lead to the relievers being overworked by late summer.*
grade: B+
*i admit i don’t know the league average here, which would be very useful. my thinking is that wells and maddux are somewhat notorious for being yanked early even when pitching well, and i though i read the same about young. so if figured i'd toss the figures in.
expectations:
win the nl west (geez that’s getting old)
lineup:
san diego’s infield appears solid but is chock full of question marks. will adrian gonzalez build on last season’s breakout, or revert to prospect bust status? will joining his brother end marcus giles slide? will khalil greene show any signs of reverting to the form he showed as a rook? will kevin kouzmanoff’s be able to handle more or less skipping AAA (only 115 career PA’s there)? i’m inclined to think the answers will favor gonzalez, greene and kouzmanoff, but not giles (who will still likely be at least an average 2b-man). brian giles will likely slug over .400 (something he somehow didn’t do in 2006) and continue to reach base like mad, and mike cameron is an above average CF. it seems termel sledge will get his chance to start in LF, and while he likely won’t exceed dave roberts’ 2006, he has a good chance to outplay dave roberts in 2007 (meaning letting roberts go was fine). josh bard enters the year as the starter (a new role for him), and after posting an OPS over .900 in ~250 AB’s last year he’s their best option.
grade: B+
bench:
i really like the insurance russell branyan can provide at both IF corners, and he can even play a little OF as well. geoff blum is the utlity IF, but he basically takes AB’s from todd walker. the fact that san diego will likely keep all three of these guys means there’s probably only room for one extra OF. the spot should really go to either paul mcanulty or jack cust, but in the end may go to jose cruz jr (better defender). cutting or trading todd walker would give them some flexibility, but I don’t see it happening (at least not yet). while we’re on the subject, not trading cust to the AL where he can DH is also pretty dumb – a guy who’s put up an OBP over .430 in his last two AAA seasons (not to mention 49 homers) probably should get a shot at a big league job regardless of his defensive woes. Lastly, you could do worse than rob bowen as your backup catcher.
grade: B- (B+ if cruz doesn’t take the last spot)
rotation:
jake peavy, chris young and greg maddux provide a great front end of the rotation. clay hensley (who quietly put up a nice 2006 – 3.71 era, 1.34 whip in 29 starts) and david wells (44 now, and only made 13 starts in 2006) make for a decent back end, but depth will be a huge problem. NRI shawn estes may be one of their first replacements – so two injuries here and san diego will be in big trouble.
grade: B
bullpen:
the dads are very strong in the reliever department, with trevor hoffman leading a corp that includes scott linebrink (who was possibly involved in the most ever trade rumors for a middle reliever), former bosox farmhand cla meredith (think the sox are regretting that mirabelli for bard and meredith move just a bit?), and scott cassidy. an assortment of vets will round out the pen. the only big concern here is that the following (numbers for 2006):
p, % of starts into the 7th inning
peavy, 56%
young, 42%
maddux, 44%
hensley, 41%
wells, 39%
will lead to the relievers being overworked by late summer.*
grade: B+
*i admit i don’t know the league average here, which would be very useful. my thinking is that wells and maddux are somewhat notorious for being yanked early even when pitching well, and i though i read the same about young. so if figured i'd toss the figures in.
Thursday, March 08, 2007
dodgers
expecations:
win the nl west (are we sensing a trend here yet?)
lineup:
in wilson betemit, rafael furcal, jeff kent and nomar, los angeles has a nice offensive infield . the issue here is that the right side is aging and injury prone, and betemit, better suited as a SS or 2b, may not bring the pop desired from the hot corner. this winter, to atone for losing jd drew and kenny lofton, the dodgers brought in veterans luis gonzalez and juan pierre. neither replacement will be as good as what was lost, and worse, it's likely neither should play over youngsters (or at least young-ers) matt kemp and jason repko. i would be keen on an outfield of andre ethier, repko, and kemp, but ethier, pierre and gonzo is likely below average. there is great news behind the plate, in that russell martin is well above average both offensively and defensively. so much so, in fact, that the dodgers were willing to give away dionner navarro last year.
grade: B-
GM grade: F- (after thinking about that navarro AND jae seo trade for mark hendrickson, and the offseason OF signings, i couldn't let this go)
NRI of note: fernando tatis - could he give betemit a run for his money at third?
bench:
as mentioned above, their extra OF's should be starting, and mike lieberthal is a great pickup to give martin a breather. ramon martinez gives you some flexibility in the IF, and he won't completely kill you at the plate (projected .240 EQA). the last spot will likely go to marlon anderson, who probably deserves it after his amazing september (1.246 OPS!! as a near full time player). anderson does give them flexibility in the field as well (he can play ~6 positions), but his spot means james loney will likely start the year in AAA. it is possible repko is the one who misses out, and james loney takes the final roster spot. while this would make the bench even stronger, i think the dodgers will prefer to give loney a full time job in AAA until nomar goes down with his 1st injury.
grade: A+
rotation:
adding jason schmidt was great, especially in lieu of losing greg maddux. derek lowe and brad penny give LA a great 1-2-3, but my concern here is that in any given year schmidt and/or penny can miss more than a handful of starts. chad billingsley, randy wolf, and the wild hong-chih kuo will battle for the last 2 spots in the rotation. whoever loses out will join brett tomko and mark hendrickson as the first option for when schmidt/penny go down, so they do have some depth here.
grade: B+
bullpen:
takashi saito will continue as the closer with the loss of eric gagne, with jon broxton (huge upside, closer to be) and joe beimel likely to set up. since their roster contains so many starters, it seems the remainder of the pen will be filled by spot starters or NRI's. i'd like to see 22-year old jonathan meloan (k and gb machine) make the big club.
grade: B-
expecations:
win the nl west (are we sensing a trend here yet?)
lineup:
in wilson betemit, rafael furcal, jeff kent and nomar, los angeles has a nice offensive infield . the issue here is that the right side is aging and injury prone, and betemit, better suited as a SS or 2b, may not bring the pop desired from the hot corner. this winter, to atone for losing jd drew and kenny lofton, the dodgers brought in veterans luis gonzalez and juan pierre. neither replacement will be as good as what was lost, and worse, it's likely neither should play over youngsters (or at least young-ers) matt kemp and jason repko. i would be keen on an outfield of andre ethier, repko, and kemp, but ethier, pierre and gonzo is likely below average. there is great news behind the plate, in that russell martin is well above average both offensively and defensively. so much so, in fact, that the dodgers were willing to give away dionner navarro last year.
grade: B-
GM grade: F- (after thinking about that navarro AND jae seo trade for mark hendrickson, and the offseason OF signings, i couldn't let this go)
NRI of note: fernando tatis - could he give betemit a run for his money at third?
bench:
as mentioned above, their extra OF's should be starting, and mike lieberthal is a great pickup to give martin a breather. ramon martinez gives you some flexibility in the IF, and he won't completely kill you at the plate (projected .240 EQA). the last spot will likely go to marlon anderson, who probably deserves it after his amazing september (1.246 OPS!! as a near full time player). anderson does give them flexibility in the field as well (he can play ~6 positions), but his spot means james loney will likely start the year in AAA. it is possible repko is the one who misses out, and james loney takes the final roster spot. while this would make the bench even stronger, i think the dodgers will prefer to give loney a full time job in AAA until nomar goes down with his 1st injury.
grade: A+
rotation:
adding jason schmidt was great, especially in lieu of losing greg maddux. derek lowe and brad penny give LA a great 1-2-3, but my concern here is that in any given year schmidt and/or penny can miss more than a handful of starts. chad billingsley, randy wolf, and the wild hong-chih kuo will battle for the last 2 spots in the rotation. whoever loses out will join brett tomko and mark hendrickson as the first option for when schmidt/penny go down, so they do have some depth here.
grade: B+
bullpen:
takashi saito will continue as the closer with the loss of eric gagne, with jon broxton (huge upside, closer to be) and joe beimel likely to set up. since their roster contains so many starters, it seems the remainder of the pen will be filled by spot starters or NRI's. i'd like to see 22-year old jonathan meloan (k and gb machine) make the big club.
grade: B-
